Silver or Gold?

I'd buy silver, but in a slightly different way.

I'd go to the Cal Neva in Reno and play their slots that pay out in real silver dollars and/or SAE's. From previous experience, I can win 13 silver dollars for every $80 invested in the machine.

Let's assume that it pays out all Morgan/Peace dollars:
$10K divided by $80 = 125 x 13 = 1625 dollar coins
1625 x .77344 = 1256.84oz x $18 (approx) = $22,623.12
126.23% Profit

However, let's assume that Cal Neva has already depleted their supply of Morgan/Peace dollars and the machines only dispense SAE's:
1625 x $18 = $29,250
192.5% Profit

Chris

 

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So you think that gold is about $400 more than it's worth right now? Do you think the USD value has any holdings at all to the price of gold today?

 

Too much math!!! Are you trying to make me cross eyed!!!

 

Fools - I forgot to add that you don't have to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point to make money on your investments. You just have to sell for more than you bought it for. I been burned before because I got greedy. I thought that if my investment just doubled in value then its going to triple for sure! Alas, not always the case. My goal is to make my profit and move on. If you try to sell at the zenith you are going to drive yourself crazy and get squashed. Make well researched investment decisions and then sell when you have met the profit level you hoped for when you first invested.

For instance, I've bought a lot of silver in the past six months. I've paid, on average, about 17 dollars an ounce. If silver goes up to $34 dollars an ounce, I'd probably sell half to get my original investment back. Then I'll roll that money into something else. Hell, I might sell all of it if there was another investment I liked better....

The $800 an ounce for gold was a random number. The point I was trying to make was that the price of gold will eventually fall. Its a bubble right now. I'm not saying it won't hit 2k an ounce. Maybe it will, but silver is the safer bet for me. I say silver is more likely to hit $34 an ounce than gold is to hit 2k an ounce.

Am I right? We'll find out soon enough.

 

$5,000.00 in Gold and $5,000.00 in silver.

 

Thank you for your analysis. You are correct in that, waiting to sell at the peak will drive you nuts, as well as the fact that no one knows what the top will be.

It's the same thing I say about buyers who wait for price drops before they buy. Once it drops, they think it will drop further, eventually they just never buy because the prices goes back up. You can say the same thing about selling at the top.

I've luckily bought all of my PM's last year when silver and gold were a little cheaper, not MUCH but enough that if I sold now, I would take zero loss with some profits.

Personally, I don't know yet when I would feel comfortable in selling my PM's, I'm still in the waiting game, however, I'm very much happy with what I'm seeing lately in PM prices. They are holding their own. When they dip, they come back up.

For silver, I think I'm ready to let some go if it hits very close to $20...in fact, I was going to sell yesterday when at one point, silver was $18.60.

If you think gold will come down to $800 or in that range, then what are your thoughts on silver? You say it will go to $34 which would be lovely, but do you think it will dip along with gold?

 

thats where i play but im in ca., you mean to tell me you come all the way across the country to play at little 'ol club cal neva, Reno's best bet ?

ive seen those machines and may have to play them next month when i go back.

 

I think silver will be at least $50 an ounce in five years. Once the economy gets going silver will be in demand because of all its industrial applications. If we are still in recession all PM's will steadly increase in value. To me, silver is win-win and is a steal at under $20 an ounce.

I'm not sure how low gold will go. Once the market shows signs of getting healthy the temptation to make money will cause people to sell their gold and get back into stocks. When that happens, the gold supply will increase and the price will plummet. My gut tells me that if the economy progresses to the point that people aren't holding gold out of fear, it will be a long tumble. I'm guessing to 2004-2005 prices. The better shape the economy is in the more gold will drop in price. Silver, however, should trend upward under either scenario.

 

How does that make it simple?

 

Buy low. Sell high. How could the formula for investment success be any simpler, Cloudsweeper?

 

Junk silver dimes for reasons previously posted. I would look them over for varieties as well to increase my chances at profit.

 

Ok off the chart with this one?? gold plated silver bullion. best of both worlds ( this was ment as humor??) Silver 4 me please.

 

Trying to find a loophole eh?? Pretty clever though....

 

Perhaps some 1970's Hamilton Mint 1-oz gold-plated silver art bars will satisfy both gold and silver worlds.

 

Evil

 

Gotta go with the silver. I'm one of the tin foil hat people that believe that the bottom is gonna fall out from under the price of gold and silver is destined to go up and decrease the gap in between. :goofer:

 

imma go with gold because gold is eazy to store.

 

Sorry I'm a bit late to the party. I read most / skimmed some of the thread.

I'm want to go with investing in silver given it's potential I feel it has at this time, but perhaps I can find another loop-hole in your question and that's price points and time.

If you'd said at what price point we were starting out at given the 10K that might drastically determine which metal from this point of time to invest in, without the price and just the 10K to deal with, there's also time to consider, can I afford to convert the 10K all at once, a little at a time, wait a month, year, whathaveyou until I buy??? These are important things for me to consider.

I'd want to know that dynamic first, however to give some insight into my approach, as of now, I'd invest in silver, and never mind the storage issues between gold and silver. If I'm buying at the current price of silver, I'd do so in increments, probably 1k per transaction and do this attempting to cover several price ranges, hopefully on the dips.

With gold, I'd be more cautious, risky because I'd be tempted to wait (time potentially lost) for a pull back and buy fractional bullion in larger quantities, at the best possible price per greater number of units bought in a few individual transactions.

I hope that illustrates my approach as it is the same approach or philosophy of buying I have always subscribed to: small, regular purchases, not to get hung up on the current spot price so long as spot is maintaining at levels within a few percent either way and to cover a range of prices over time. With 10K in cash at my immediate disposal, I would simply ramp up the size of my purchases.

At this moment, silver is my leaning.

 

I lived in Reno in 82-83, and I was there for pool tournaments in 2005 & 2007.

In 2005, I was staying at Circus Circus during the tournament. At 4:00am, one hour before we were to leave for the airport to come home, I put $10 in a "Wild Taxi" penny multi-line video slot. The max bet was $1.50, and on the third spin I hit WILD, WILD, 2X WILD, WILD, WILD for $1,000. Not bad for a $4.50 investment, huh!

Chris

 

I like the way you think mate. I think I need to check some of these Connecticut casino's for similar machines