Are PMs riding due to uncertainty regarding Russia & Ukraine?

PMs are simply not likely to be good investments over very long periods of time.

It's possible -- if you market time the buy and the sale correctly -- that you can make a nice 1-time return. It's also possible that once in your lifetime PMs will skyrocket and any holder of PMs will make out nicely (like the 1970's).

But it's simply impossible to make the case for PMs over a long period of time to generate positive investment returns on a non-biased 30-year rolling time period where beginning/ending periods do not matter.

Now, if Russia does something stupid and PM's explode for the next 10-15 years or something, who knows ?

But PM's can't benefit from expanding P/E ratios....generally don't pay a dividend....don't offer growth opportunities....etc. This is why I always consider PM's to be SPECULATIONS and not investments.

Same with coins. I take a look at the returns on trophy coins -- in my case, Saints -- and I see 6-7% returns, tops, over multiple decades, far worse than stocks and even bonds. And that's with coins for the super-rich who are largely price-insensitive and can afford to pay top dollar for ultra-rarities.

 

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I think it was to the speech by Joe! The feeling of security won't last for long though as all those sanctions that are effectively messing with the Ruskies! They're not working at all as the main Rusky really thought about this attack for a very long time. Block their banks, go ahead, they have crypto and they have plenty of it!

 

I was thinking the other day that if I was fleeing the Ukraine to Poland with family - a pocket full of some Gold coins would be very helpful to have. EURO or Dollars as well.

 

I really dont think he cares (Puttin) what we do from a sanction stand point, I am
sure he has already considered it, and this is what we our left with a screwed up
stock market and sky high everything else, there's deffimitlley blow back on our economy : (

 

Yes, a guy from Strategas -- a well-known investment advisory firm to Wall Street and hedge funds -- had one of their guys on CNBC yesterday saying how the long lines at Ukrainian ATMs and the inability to access BitCoin prove once again that dollars and/or gold are valuable to most people in the world.

If a billionaire wants 10% of his net worth in BitCoin, it isn't likely he would want tens of thousands of gold coins or bars.

But if hundreds of millions of formerly-poor 3rd World types suddenly have a middle-class outlook, they WILL want a few ounces of gold, maybe more.

We take it for granted because of the dominance of the dollar, but currency collapses and wealth destruction/confiscation have been going on forever in lesser-developed countries.

 

True but it won't be Ukranian gold coins, not off of feebay anyways, they're all sold out. I was thinking of buying one myself, yesterday there was one or two, now today there are zero!

 

That’s why you need to be careful when
you buy graded bullion, there no way
to tell on the premium and good
luck getting that back, have bought
a couple graded coins only because
there were no B/U examples.

 

Here's a thought.....Putin reportedly has $200 billion he siphoned off from Russian economies and the tax coffers. What if he put a bunch of it into BitCoin ? And his fellow oligarch cronies ?

 

Uh what? There's no way to tell, lol

 

I’ve only sold 40% American coins and a few graded coins that didn’t fit my collection in the past 20 years and I got my premium back plus some….The easiest way to tell is using eBay comps, you look at the last three that sold at auction with a minimum of five bids and you find the avg, doesn’t always work but it’s a good place to start.

 

yes, that's how I do it on some items that I am not sure about...compare sold prices too... ROOT

 

PM,S are essentially a inheritance for my
kids so 50 - 60 years down the line
with moderate growth should be a winner
in raw form.

 

Could be big winners in 10 or 20 or 30 years...and then flop by Year 50 or Year 60.

I did the returns for 2 ultra-rare Saint-Gaudens coins....the 1933 Double Eagle (only 1) and the top-of-the-line 1908-S MS-68.

Each returned only about 6-7% over multiple decades.

 

But as you know with graded coins it’s
always harder to get that premium
back over spot vs a raw coin, I have
a few graded liberates only because
I couldn’t find B/U examples, is that
a good investment probably not
but they sure look pretty

 

The numismatic coins and PMs are kind of a different conversation. That said if the PMs spike they should be sold but unfortunately people tend to just keep buying more as the price goes up putting themselves underwater for years if not decades/their life time

 

This is incorrect. It's absolutely MUCH easier to get an over spot premium with a graded coin than a raw coin

 

Yeah, if a coin is a 1924 Saint MS-65...you get spot plus about 20% right now.

An ungraded one or one graded MS-63 you probably get spot plus a few $$$, tops.

 

But here again you have to find someone to pay that premium, I can go anywhere
with a raw coin and easily get that premium back.

 

The smaller the premium, agreed, the easier it is to get it.

I think a 20% premium to spot gold is not that difficult to monetize.

Pure numismatic coins with 100-1,000% or more premiums to gold could take days or weeks to sell -- or you would have to sell at a nice discount to FMV to allow the dealer time to sell it.

 

I think thats the major difference, if you were a pinch raw uncertified coins would
be easier to liquidate at a much better cost/sale ratio.