Hi everyone. I'm looking for opinions on whether or not palladium will ever rise to the level gold has, and if you think it's possible, how much of it should I add to my holdings? I remember back in '99 when gold was at $250-$300 oz. and I'm kicking myself today for not buying 75-100 oz. of it then. If I had... well let's just say my financial situation would be much more improved than it is today.
Can't tell you if it will go up to gold's level, not sure if anyone can. But I think it's a pretty volatile metal. I mean, any kind of news could make it swing up or down pretty quickly. I can say I've been watching it for awhile and was hoping to catch it coming down but it doesn't seem to be going my direction. I'm pretty shocked it's even in the 400's....
Up and down, Wildly for sure!! I think buying any precious metal right Now is a real gamble, Prices are very high and would have to have a Huge investment to make any money!!
Yeah, me too... These exotic metals we invest in are almost the stuff of fairy tales aren't they? I understand that the old high school ring of the 50's is worth over a hundred dollars in scrap value, platinum worth $40 to $60 in your car's exhaust system, god only knows what anybody does with rhodium but they sure pay mightily for it ( I remember $10K/oz). --- Now we're looking at 'rare earths' for the new green technology. Probably won't hold them physically but ...... ----- I believe that Upsiedaisium was pricey too, but it was also a sound investment as a nickels worth purchased then is today worth gazillions (give or take):whistle:.
KITCO.com: 1 Year Palladium Chart Apmex currently selling 1 oz. Palladium Maples for $500.75/oz. (1/1/10.) 2008 - 2009: Palladium from $183.00 to $393.00 up 114.8%
A volatile metal for sure. Will it crash? I don't think so anytime soon, but rather give it a little more time to see it finally level off.
In 2001 it was US$1,100. It has the potential to be much higher than it is now, especially since it has unique properties related to nitrogen, is about 12 times rarer than gold and is much cheaper to use than platinum as a catalytic converter when the economy takes off again...
Hi Alf, Have any good Cat lately? Palladium is the sister Noble metal with Platinum. They're industrial substitutes for each other and much of their appreciation can be tied to hopes and dreams of economic recovery. It doesn't have an ETF and physical bullion is very rare so I have held PAL (North American Palladium) stock for some years. It's about the only pure play palladium mining stock available. It's been mostly flattish for quite a while until recently when it took off like a scalded cat. Will it continue to climb? WTF knows? However, as long as the bull market in gold continues, all the other pm's are going to be dragged along whether they like it or not. And the bull market in gold has another 8 years or so to run, in my humble opinion. peace, rono
silver is a better bet! the gold to silver ratio should be 17-1 now it stands at 65/70-1 so either gold needs to slide down (not) or silver needs 2 go up?? Plus silver has more industrial uses then both gold and palladium (solar pannels,batterys)
Hi palerider, Indeed, the bets at this time based upon historical relationships are to overweight mining stocks relative to bullion and overweight silver relative to gold. In the former, the gold/XAU ratio has an equilibrium level of 4.0. Above that means that mining stocks are cheap relative to bullion and below they're dear relative to bullion. Although I firmly believe this equilibriuim mark should be shifted upwards to 5.0 or even 5.5 due to the advent of the gold ETF's, it's currently at 6.4 and has been has high as 7 and 8. As for the gold/silver ratio, like you say, historically this has been between 15 to 1 and 20 to 1. When gold and silver peaked early in 1980, gold hit $850 and silver $50 . . . or 17 to 1. Right now it's 62 to 1. And in all fairness, there are many who posit that the ratio number should be adjusted upward due to the fact that silver is no longer used as money. I disagree due to its even increasing industrial demand. Will it ever get back to 20 to 1? Perhaps, but at 62 to 1, I feel it's a safe bet to overweight it relative to gold. As for Palladium and Platinum . . . purely side bets. rono
Palladium is the absolute worst kind of investment... an unpredictable one. It goes up and down in value not due to any reasonable predictors but largely due to the psychological mood of investors. Some days they like it and bid it higher... some days they don't. It seems to move up and down reliably with other precious metals... because when people are in a buying or selling mood with gold, platinum, and other precious metals a handful will pick up some palladium too to diversify. But they'll often sell it off before they ever sell off their gold and platinum, which they consider to be safer in the long run, so palladium will always go down before the others do (in fact dropping palladium prices is a good signal that gold and platinum will go down soon too!). It's never going to give you the proportional profit gold and platinum will... but you'll risk losing less too. So if you're looking for a relatively low risk, low yield, investment, you could do worse I suppose. Just don't get too excited about it. Canada and China both put out some nice palladium coins. It would be worth picking up a few. At least you'll have some nice coins regardless of what palladium does.
it has been said. Platinum and palladium are likely to rise because of the ETF launches. You just enabled easy purchase for millions of new investors, and the perfect vehicle to push. I will buy the ETF. Lack
