Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

I agree..the frenzy and frothiness that signals a top is not there. The general population is just about totally unaware that anything is going on with this asset class. The video posted on you tube that featured the guy on a California beach trying to sell a 1oz gold coin for $50 with no takers kinda' says something..

Most investment pros that I work with on a daily basis still have their heads stuck in just stocks and bonds. Some of these folks have a broad commodity piece in their client's portfolio. Very few have the precious metal piece or know much about it. When the uptrend finally slaps these guys in the face, they will buy for their clients and that will likely signal the stretch run. What's always interesting is how long the stretch run lasts. At this point it's only a guess.

 

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That happened to me that other day also. I just may unload some on this person.

 

Your post struck me as very funny...they'll never know what hit 'em!

 

people buying gold in this market are crazy. it is like buying a house 5 years ago. it is just nuts.

this is not the time to be buying gold but saving it.

i have some gold coins but i am holding onto them as long term investments. if i could flip them and sell them for double what i paid to some crazy person then i might consider it but i am in it for the long haul at this point.

 

And some of the problems that have contributed to the price increase in gold are probably going to be around for awhile...so a long term view may help here..

 

i use to deal in 4x stuff until that market just became so saturated that it is useless. the same thing happened there only with gold it is worse.

in the 4x you have the bid and ask price. that is known as the spread. most good 4x companies only have a 2-3 pip spread on their currency pairs some are worse up to 4 or even 5.

with gold the asking price is always at a premium. most gold companies unless you buy it somewhere else (which can be spotty) have a 40-50% markup.

there buy back is usually 30-40% less. most of them also go buy retail value as well.

Gold is not a short term investment if you want to do that i recommend the stock market.

the thing with gold is the same thing that happened with people that bought oil at 120 bucks a barrel and watched it slide all the way down.

people buying gold at this price are going to get screwed once gold settles back down again.

right now the best plan is to either sell what you have or some of it or keep it and wait to see what happens.

if you are not invested in gold right now the best thing to do is just stay out of it until the prices come back down. anyone that suggests buying gold at this price is just after your money not your financial success.

i got into gold at below the 1000 buck mark. i have coins so they carry a nice premium over standard bullion. the problem is selling them to make a profit of some kind yourself.

 

They need the money !

With unemployment at a quoted 10+ % we all know the CPI and the PPI say there is little inflation.
There is inflation ,food and fuel products are not counted on the Conumer price index.
Unemployment is more like 13-15% depending on the state.
Independents are very unhappy with the problems they face, but even more distressed by how they are being solved.
Small business is taking a pounding. People sell gold they have to buy food. I bought 10 1ounce Krugerands from the son of a friend, he kept his silver. I think others are doing the same.
China has told their people to invest in silver if they can.
Silver can not really go until we have commercial users start to book sales of goods.Some feel silver is overdue to go very positive. People buy what they can afford.
I believe that unless we get the country back on solid footing , there is no reason for those who can afford gold to only contue to buy gold.

I speak only for myself

Pep

 

Silver would probably be a good investment right now as it is still low or until gold comes back down.

whether or not silver takes off is unkown like anything don't invest if you don't have it and if you do realize that it is for the long haul.

 

I think you're right. However, most collectors and small time investors don't have the luxury of holding metals in hopes for a bigger profit over every hill. A few thousand dollars lost is a lot, whereas a large firm with thousands of ounces of gold in IRA's can lose millions and still bounce back with no problem. At what point do you say I've made enough and bail out? Smart investing has no room for greed.
Guy~

 

That's a tough question to answer. Everyone has to decide for themselves. I suspect that people have forgone more potential profits by selling assets too early in a bull market than they have made from their actual sales. For example, you may recall Greenspan's comment about "irrational exuberance." But he made the statement on December 5, 1996 when the NASDAQ had just gone on a run from something like 325 to about 900 and it was widely thought to be too high. Well, the Nasdaq proceeded to continue to rise to over 5,000 before it crashed. Bull markets typically last longer and move higher than anyone could imagine beforehand. I don't think the current bull market in gold will be any different. I expect it to move much higher -- and end badly for those who stay too long.

If it was easy, we'd all be rich already.

 

If there is a true frenzy (not existing as we speak) that sends prices up, that's when its hardest to know when the market will top and turn the other way. Prices will be driven by emotional forces such as fear and greed rather than cold-blooded analysis. Historically, prices usually run up a lot further then they should based on what the asset is really worth.

The very same emotions, fear and greed are present when panic selling is present. In this case prices will overshoot to the downside far below what they should be worth.

The best thing an investor can do in these situations is not become one of the mob. You have to stand back, calm down and carefully think about what action you will take.

 

In CA the TV ads are prolific . Known faces are being used.
Jewelery is being sold to cover short work weeks, and months.
People are happy to get some cash. Small business is a large part of business. Here unemployment is near 15% . FAmlies are living together until something positive happens.

 

California has challenges on many fronts..from the dire fiscal situation of the state government to the man in the street trying to find a job paying a decent wage. Even water is scarce..

Like Florida, you may eventually have a situation of negative population growth where more people are moving out of the state than moving in due to a multitude of problems.