Best Time to Buy Sarah

When do you think will be the best time to buy the Sarah Polk gold coins. Should we buy them now...before the prices go up again, or wait (up to a year) for prices to come back down?

 

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Some are saying we are now looking at the last days of gold below $1,000!

 

A. Buy this week before gold goes up over $1000/oz. if you think it's going up...

B. Wait until gold goes back down to below $900/oz. if you think gold is going back down sometime during the next year.

I'm going with choice B personally, holding out until gold drops to below $900/oz. (and the mint prices drop) to buy all of my 2009 Spouse coins. Of course, there's a chance it'll never happen, then I'll either have to pay up before they are taken off the Mint website or just sell off my current Spouse coins and enjoy the profits because of the higher spot prices... We'll see

 

Sounds like a WIN/WIN :high5:

But wait...that would mean you would be out of the running for the "Complete Spouse".

 

seems like once every month or two I consider calling it quits and selling the set. but I've held off so far

just so many other coins that I could buy with the $10k or so I have tied up in them so far.

but i do like gold

 

Good point...I would love to own a nice Unc 1955 double-die...even more than gold!

 

Exactly, the 1955 doubled die is pretty high on my want list, but I want a mint state example for sure. To think that I could have TWO of them in MS64RB instead of my First Spouse coins, or one really nice on in MS64RD really makes me think about listing them all on eBay right now.

Especially when I saw today that someone is selling all of the 2007 and 2008 uncirculated coins (8 total/4 oz. gold) w/ a starting bid of $4500 and there's a bidder on it already. If I could get that for my unc coins, and another $4500 or so for the first 8 proofs, it would be very hard for me to say no.

 

I'm watching that auction, too. $4500 seems like a pretty good price considering you get the Monroe, Louisa Adams and the first three (3) Libertys. Nearly $560 per coin...that's tough to pass up.

 

You need to at least hold off from buying until gold has fallen below $950. I don't think gold will drop below $900 again this year. Yes, it is a lot of money to be tied up in this set but there isn't a down side to this set, unless gold just bottoms out which I doubt will happen. You should always be able to get at least what you have into the coins back out of them. For those of us who ever finish the set it will be such an accomplishment. I am kinda ticked at the mint right now because had it not been for the imperfect Tyler FS coin they sent me I would have had the UNC one as well and just waiting to get the Polk ones.

 

Sure, the downside risk is minimized since they will always be worth at least the gold melt value. But the downside risk I worry about is the opportunity cost of not being able to buy other coins that I think could do alot better over the next 5 years or so. Of course most of those are not gold so the downside risk is significantly greater!! I'm still holding out for sub $900... I already could have bought in the $900-$950 range for months it seems. Just needs to drop below $900 for a week by March 2010 or so... still have around 6 months. we'll see.

 

If gold prices keep rising then mintages on these coins will probably keep falling. Right now the Van Buren gold is projected to sell fewer coins than the Jackson did. The Margaret Taylor coins I think will drop even further than that.

 

The auction ended at $4500...that's a really good buy (imo). I wanted to bid, but I need to slow down; I'm not rich like the rest of you guys.

 

Gold has been averaging an up trend for awhile, I would bet that there will be a dip due to profit taking or other market conditions.

That said it could be a dip from $1100 down to $1050 or from $1000 down to $900.

I would not worry and if you like it just buy it. The series lasts long enough you can cost average.

 

I have a Bold Prediction that the final mintage of the Anna Harrison coin could end up not far from where it is now...and be the new Key date.

1) It's one of the less attractive designs (imo).
2) Her husband didn't do anything in office except catch cold and die.
3) Most folks planning to buy this coin have likely already done so. Just 76 were sold last week.
4) The Van Buren Liberty (a beautiful coin and one of the Liberty series) will be on sale until 25Nov09. I'm guessing that more of the FS money will flow into the VB Liberty as 25Nov09 approaches.
5) Christmas shopping begins around 25Nov09, so FS sales may slow.
6) After Christmas, most folks have to catch up with bills.
7) The Anna Harrison FS coin ends just two (2) months after the Holidays (on 05Mar10).
8) There could be another price hike between now and 05Mar10...further limiting sales.

 

All very good points, and I have to say I agree! :thumb:

 

I've got a few of the Scott Travers books on buying and selling coins for profit. I think he would agree with you 100%. I don't think I'll see a significant return on these coins for at least 10 years after the end of the series...or 2025. That's quite a long time to have money tied up.

In the mean time, I fully expect there to be a bubble in gold that will burst at some point. It's entirely possible that some of these coins will sell for less than the issue price at some point...further supporting the argument to wait and scoop these up on the rebound.

Another point to consider is..."What makes a series popular?". After the series is complete, how will collectors view this series? How will they collect them? This may be a tough series for collectors to get their arms around...they're not like Lincoln pennies or Mercury Dimes. These coins don't have the historical significance of the older gold coins that actually circulated.

In 1972, I bought an uncirculated 1916-d Mercury dime for $800. I saved my paper route money for an entire year to buy it. It's a raw coin, but I would grade it a good MS-64 non-FB. I don't think I'll ever see a return like that in the FS series.

I can sit here all day and come up with reasons not to collect the FS coins...but, like an idiot, I'm pressing on with the collection.

 

Even if gold prices are cut in half, you'd still need to have folks out there who are willing to sell their $600+ first spouse coins at a loss. With only a few thousand of each of the 2009 coins sold, there aren't too many out there to begin with and I would expect very few of the people buying now will ever be willing to sell them for any significant loss, regardless of gold prices, unless they are forced to do so.

Even if gold prices dropped to $500/oz. I know for sure I'm not selling my First Spouse coins for anything less than what I paid. I'm guessing I'm not the only one who feels that way. But if gold rises to $1500/oz., I may dump them all at melt prices and take the profits.

So I wouldn't count on many being available in the secondary market unless gold prices rise enough to where melt value exceeds the purchase price, only then will the holders be motivated to sell in order to take a profit.

By the way, are you trying to talk me into selling my set??? You're doing a pretty good job :goofer:

Cool story about the 1916-D dime too. I'm sure there are a ton of coins we could buy today that have a much better chance of appreciating like that dime than the First Spouse coins do. So why am I still buying these???

 

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I would never do that...but I gotta say, your arguement is an easy one to support.

Here's why I collect this series...

I like coins because of their historical connection. I can't help but reflect on life and events; what people were doing when the coin dropped from the die. Coins minted during the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War II, etc are especially interesting to me.

I think we're going through an historically significant period right now. The econmic turmoil of the times is having a direct effect on the mintages of these coins. If these low mintage coins were to catch on in the future, I wouldn't forgive myself for not collecting them when I had the chance.

Your argument makes more sense than mine, but I still want to collect the Spouses...for better or worse...'till death do us part :hug: