Sold of My Entire Bullion Collection In Order To Purchase BitCoins

TC, when billionaire hedge funds talk to one another and they talk about putting even 1-5% of their networths into this thing at $30,000 not caring about 50% downside but looking forward to 1,000% upside......that's why they're looking at it.

I've never understood BitCoin and don't even recall hearing about it until maybe 2016 or so. And I am an investment analyst/money manager.

It's competition for gold, so I personally hope it fades. But if it goes to $250,000....then gold is probably going to $5,000.

 

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I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see BTC hit $100K this year. I'd be even less surprised to see it drop below $10K.

It's easy to see the upside potential -- the supply is strictly limited, and the more popular it gets, the more you'll have to pay to get some.

Here's what I see for downside threats:

1) A catastrophic attack on the system. The math behind blockchain itself is completely solid as far as I know, but any appearance that wallets are being hijacked or spoofed will cause a crash. I don't know how to evaluate the probability of this.

2) The rise of competitive cryptocurrencies. Sure, there'll never be more than 21-odd-million BTC -- but if people are also accepting Etherium and Litecoin and Dogecoin (much serious!) and a dozen other newcomers, that effectively dilutes it. These competitors exist today.

3) Heavy-handed regulation. If regulations make it too hard for big exchanges like Coinbase (or entities like PayPal) to deal with it, I don't think person-to-person transactions will be enough to sustain its value. I know governments are highly motivated to make this happen. I find it unwise in general to bet against them.

 

Jeffb, you understand this "mining" thing ? I sure don't. I read that the "last" BitCoins won't appear for another 120 years ???

It sounds like it's going to dribble out supply for 120 years....

 

There literally millions of people that would, they're just most under 40 and especially under 30. They're also all over Asia

 

This thread reminds me of the doomsday predictors. If you just cry wolf for long enough saying it's going to fail or the world will end eventually you'll be right.

 

It depends on the power of computers to some extent but yes it will be a significant amount of time as the amount of energy and computing power gets insane near the end of the supply. Some significant advance will have to happen to drastically change the time

 

Wallets have been hacked this entire time including from nation states that are desperate for money from sanctions. It's hasn't really had much impact other than changing how people store them.

 

Not really. Crypto people are generally very picky and very loyal. Being the original the others aren't really competition anymore than the peso is competition for the USD. Most of the people going for the others were likely priced out of bitcoin anyways or already have bitcoin. Only an extremely small amount are saying I was going to buy bitcoin but I like the others more

That's the wild card. That said it wouldn't kill it. Drugs are illegal but they still thrive. There's always going to be a market in the world for various types of money but yes that would most likely put a much lower value ceiling on it

 

But it's not "money"....it's just a digital credit not backed up by any central bank or other store of value like a PM or gold.

That's what I don't get.

 

Stocks aren't money either. Neither are sports teams, or cars, or furniture, or alcohol etc.

PMs aren't backed by anything. They're backed by people saying because it should be valuable, the exact same thing

The only things with "intrinsic value" are air, water, and food. If you don't need it to survive the value is because humans say so

 

Those are real assets, ownership interests in cash-flow producing entities.

BC is just something others bid higher.

It's a TANGIBLE asset that has use. Gold and silver for millenia had use in jewelry, commerce, etc.

We're not debating Value in Use vs. Value in Exchange (Economics 101 ).

Real assets that have value or generate income/cash flow are what BitCoin does not have.

 

You seemed to have missed the entire point.

They are "only real assets" or have "real value" because people say so.

The only things with actual real have to have value are air, water and calories.

 

No...in our modern economy something that throws off INCOME or DIVIDENDS is different than BitCoin, Art, or a 1907 High Relief Saint or other coins.

 

BECAUSE people say so....

 

No, they really do throw off dividends, income, interest, or other cash flows (from a business)....I don't "say so" -- it IS so !

BitCoin is a TANGIBLE asset trying to gain FINANCIAL asset status. It may achieve that, I'm just saying what is behind it is somewhat spurious.

 

Again you missed the entire point and yes I’m well aware of dividends.

the point flying over many of your heads for the millionth time if that things have value because people say so. Dividends have value because people say so.

There’s no difference with crypto other than many on coin forums don’t like so it must be worthless or a bubble yet have been saying so for half a decade now and are still wrong

 

If you don't think regular cash payments have "value", I'm afraid it isn't our heads over which points are flying.

 

I think you're playing a bit of semantics here, BB21...if you want to say that NOTHING in our world has value except life and air and water and food, I get your point.

I reiterate: income-producing assets (dividends, interest, cash flows from business) are fundamentally different than BitCoin, Gold, Silver, or other PM's.

A beach house and the land on it are tangible assets that I can use or rent out. A forest with millions of trees that I own is a timber resource but different unless I sell the trees.

 

35,700

 

Wise choice. I've made good money on crypto in the last couple of months. My strategy is not to hold long, and ride the ups and down. Crypto is more of an investment with up/Downward potential as to where gold is more a traditional store of value.