Precious Metals And The Coronavirus

I nominate @TheFinn to win the internet today!
Fact-The pandemic is real.
Fact-The virus is spreading.
Fact- People are dying due to COVID-19.
Fact- No vaccine has been developed to cure the virus.
Fact- Social distancing can help contain the transmission of the virus.
Fact-Business's are suffering, big time.
Fact-Corporate earnings WILL be affected, big time.
Fact-Millions of people are suffering from financial hardship from loss of business, reduced or eliminated hours of employment, businesses potentially going under, lost 401-k valuations and zero interest on savings.
Fact-Due to social distancing and the responsible reduction of interaction with other people, supermarket inventories of a plethora of consumables are either no longer readily available or diminishing incredibly quickly off store shelves so that shortages are expected to last for quite a long time. Much longer than weeks, or even a couple of months. Some economists are forecasting shortages to last for eight to 12 months.

None of the above is fear driven. The responsible act of social distancing is creating a very real economic environment that we haven't seen in this country. Ever!

Please explain where the delusion resides.

 

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Now this is a real inconvenience. I thought with the dow doing another header it would be fun to post a video of a swan singing the "swan song." Well apparently swans don't really sing before they croak, they just roll over chew water.

 

Um, your entire list is "fear driven". Yeah, the virus is spreading, but it is a virus similar to the flu. The flu boringly kills hundreds of thousands a year, and we never know if the flu shot we get every year will contain the actual strain going around. But, this is boring and CNN cannot make money scaring everyone about the flu anymore. Covid 19 is "scary" enough to sell advertisements. That is all the media cares about nowadays, how much revenue they can extract from a story. China is already seeing plummeting infections and reopening up of everything.

Go ahead and be fearful. Go ahead and sell your stocks, (please). I will be around to pick up the bargains you throw in the trash.

I bought gold the last few years when no one wanted it at good premiums. I am seriously considering going to the SDB to pull it out and sell just to take advantage of cheap equities. I can replace the gold when the fear subsides and it becomes boring again.

 

Another flush of the hedge funds. NOW we’re seeing less leverage. And forced selling of physical by some.
I’m 95% cash, 5% coin collection including bullion.
No mortgage, no payments, 815 FICO, $4000/mo after daily expenses.
I’ll do just fine. Others maybe not so much

 

That's your opinion, that I don't subscribe to. But that's totally ok because we all know about opinions

Won't happen. I've actually been acquiring the fire sale stocks too.

 

On a PM note, I would urge everyone to note the premiums right now. This is one of the major downsides of physical PM. When they drop lower, you can never buy at that price since the sellers jack up the premiums. This is why I try to accrue pm slowly during boring times when no one wants pm. I bought quite a few ounces of gold the last few years basically at spot. Today, everything is greatly above spot, and I bet their buy price is also wider than historical. This is when these firms make their bank, off of scared investors.

 

1. Not disagreeing that my and your view are BOTH opinions.
2. Wise man. I will bet you a nickel you will be a lot better off financially with your equity purchases today than any pm one.

I am looking at these prices and am tempted as well. PT looks very good to me, but I have to weigh that versus opportunities in the equity market, which, like Jim said above, is what is happening with a lot of people right now. This is why PM is down.

 

While you are correct to say that the premium over spot increases during significant drops (also known as spread), Anyone buying today with spot at $12 is buying at a lower price than someone who purchased a month ago at $17. The spread is not that great where the overall price is greater than $17.

 

I just checked Apmex for junk silver. 15 times face, which equates to over $20 an ounce for the silver. I bought some a few months ago, paying less than this for .999 coins for the kids, and junk price was 12.5 times face. It was cheaper to buy when silver was $17 an ounce than today.

See the effect of "hot" markets versus dead ones? Its not a rare commodity. It is not a screaming deal at commercial prices today, since the premiums are sky high. You can do better when it is a boring market again most likely.

 

FACT - Toilet paper - no matter how many rolls you have, will not protect you from a virus. Highly illogical!
Fear in motion.

 

So based on a singularity you paint a broad brushed generality. Sounds logical Mr. Spock.

 

Sure it will. Indirectly.

See you got your home stocked - for 60 days or more - food, meds, TP. Because of this - you dont have to leave your home for a long time while the virus is spreading out there and people are dying. THIS reduces significantly your chances of contracting the virus since you are at home and not out in the markets every week for supplies.

 

TP is everywhere though. It doesn't necessarily have to say toilet paper and you don't necessarily have to flush it.

But, I will say I am thankful in times like this I am divorced. The bulk TP I bought last year (1 package) still has another 6+ months left. It always pays to buy in bulk.

 

I just heard an interesting statistic tonight on the radio. The author of the book, "Pandemic" said that since December 1, 2019 there have been 7,074 people that have died from the Wuhan flu. But since January 1, 2020 over 140,000 people have died from seasonal flu.

But you don't hear about that. It doesn't sell out inventories or close businesses.

 

7,074 world-wide.

 

Yep and you have seen the daily death rate curves - flat for a while - headed up at huge rates - we are just beginning unless this isolation thing works.

 

Well it took a while but my neck of the woods has finally gone Full Metal Plate. The good news is they not only took all the moon paper they even took all the paper towels and napkins. Ha, ha they'll get some Justice when the plumbers are done snaking their toilets.

But no eggs? What's next, we stand in line for 6 hours to buy a light bulb? How do you even hoard eggs, when they have to be refrigerated. What are they doing, stacking them on the work bench in the garage because...."Sarprise, sarprise, sarprise,"
they're the crack babies from the 80's?

 

How many have died?

 

7,074.

Sorry, that's from over 8 hours ago. 7,500 now.

 

80,000 have recovered, 7330 have died.