Graded World Notes - Selling Price vs Krause CV

How well have you done on these?

If you were to develop a pricing matrix for world graded say PMG notes Grades 63 to 67 vs Krause CV (Raw Unc) what would be your inputs?

Example: 63 1.00, 64 1.25 (times raw CV), 65 1.50, 66 2.00, 67 3.00

How would notes with single digit pops impact your pricing matrix?

 

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Wow, that is a unanswerable question. How many are in existence at each of those grades? If there are a ton of 64's, but only 1 or 2 65s I would wager the price of the 65 would be very different than if a 65 were actually more common than a 64. Know what I mean? Every note, unfortunately, has unique facts concerning its availability, demand, etc that will influence this.

 

Simple principle to apply here, is the law of supply and demand, i deal only
In graded notes, with a specialty in MPC, also you can throw out any pricing
Index system and just simplify things, the higher the grade and the scarcity
will always dictate price.

 

The pricing in the Pick book is hit and miss (mostly miss) with many notes and even entire countries. It should be used for relative scarcity and not for pricing.

 

To further hit the point home, price guides are just that, guides and must
be used with a bit of common sense, if your relying on them 100 % of the
time to give you accurate information, all i can say is good luck ! to you
and your wallet, also you need to take in to account the age of the information
Your looking at, there are very few currency publications that update in
A timely manner.

 

I have a 1904 Germany 5 mark that is considered $25 in UNC.

I think I bought it for $7 or so...

 

IMO,

Its all about supply and demand. BUT also target audience (aka buyers).
I have seen the weirdest things sell when I thought they would never sell. You just never know about some buyers as everyone is looking for their own personal taste in something.

To give you a somewhat answer, single digit pops "usually" add value. With that comes condition and rarity of the note. All these things, molded together with the right buyer, anything can be sold at any price.

 

Germany is one of the best examples of pricing problems in Pick.

 

All price guides are problems. Everyone with real knowledge can point out where price guides are wrong, sometimes massively so. They are simple guides. If it shows $3 I know its horribly common, $25 fairly common and obtainable, $200 maybe a better item. It is simply to put you in the ballpark, and sometimes it even misses the ballparks. Even worst, then hoards come onto the market and blow it all up anyway.

 

I think for MOST bills, you are in the general ballpark. The relationship as you go up higher in quality certainly increases at a parabolic rate. Whether the price is 3x for a 67 depends on the specific bill or coin. Could be less @ 67 but more than 1.5x at 65.

The main factor as some have noted: how big a dropoff is the population as you go from 63 to 64 to 65 (and here's where it usually shows a big jump)......66...67...68.

Also it will depend on how big the market is. Are we talking obscure 19th century bills where we have a limited number of buyers....or 1907 HR Saints where you have dozens or hundreds of online buyers at Stacks, HA, and Ebay ? Liquidity is key....there are more buyers of 20th U.S. currency and coins than there are obscure foreign notes or pre-20th century U.S. currency.

We also have to ask if we are quoting Bid or Ask prices...is it a price to SELL or a price to BUY. I find the price closer if it's the price I want to sell one. If I want to buy, even with your multipliers, I can generally add 20%. And that's not taking into account auction premiums, S&H, sales tax, etc.

 

Quantity of each note is very interesting. But unique as each note may be, I have never seen a '63 valued more than a '64.

 

I am planning do some more research on some of the major graded world banknote sellers and see how they match my matrix.

 

a 63 is not desirable, so that formula wouldnt apply, however i have seen many
64,s that i would take over a 65, each grading point has its own quirks, the 65
grade is known for uneven boarders where as 64,s have more subtle issues such
as corner bumps, which in some cases makes it a more desirable note that i would
Be willing to pay more for.

 

Do you have any examples of 64’s you could show us ?

 

sure, heres an example:

 

If you can see its a nice solid note, i will also show a 63

 

The 63 is very dingy and the margins are way off to the right on the front side
Also no PPQ on this note, i had got this note with a bunch of others but i would
Never buy a 63 out right just not vary attractive, i am very high on A/U notes
Here,s a good situation where you get more bang for your buck !

 

Elaborate..are you saying it's better bang-for-your-buck to buy the "best" of the AU (58) then the "worst" of the MS's (low-60's, most people use 60/61/62 but you cite 63) ?

 

What he is saying is that a 58 with a slight bend can have better eye appeal than a 63 with bad centering but cost less.