Silver Bullion vs Gold Bullion as an investment

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Here,s some of my Silver

 

Kind of go both ways...LOL

 

Using your pessimistic outlook, which i completely disagree with, gold going to all time high again (assuming purchase at today's $1,300) would yield a profit of 46.2%.

Silver only reaching your doom and gloom high of only $23 (assuming purchase at today's $15) would yield 53.3%.

Silver wins again at only a modest $23/oz.
Silver was at $49+ as recent as 2011.

Your scenario is unfounded, unproven, unsubstantiated and yet it still proves silver has a greater upside potential.

FYI, I do have gold in my portfolio as well. Just infinitely less than my silver hoard.

 

I think that,s wishful thinking, if your looking to get back to that number
The "word" modest, should be a maximum, but here again this forum is
Filled with opinion and everyone has got one.

 

My point is not expecting it to make it back to that number. The fact is, it doesn't have to even come close to the $49/oz to outperform gold. At $23/oz silver beats golds all time yield.

If silver climbs just modestly above $23/oz it'll crush golds performance. The ONLY drawback to silver is the space it occupies. Some of us don't have a space constraint.

 

Your whole back and forth discussion is meaningless until you consider the point I raised earlier. Silver is purchased at a much higher premium than gold. Silver must increase by much higher levels than gold for you to make money. You must account for this when thinking you will make money.


March 9 Spot gold $1301, Silver $15.40

If you have $1360 to invest right now, you could buy:

73 American Silver Eagles at $18.39 each https://www.jmbullion.com/american-silver-eagle-varied-year/
They buy these back for $16.40. You will lose 11%
or
1 American Gold Eagle at $1360 for a random year https://www.jmbullion.com/1-oz-american-gold-eagle/
They buy these back for $1307. You will lose 4%

In other words, Silver needs to increase in value by 11% for you to break even. Gold needs to increase 4% in value for you to break even.

 

Let's look at this random ( first that came up ) quote on silver in 2011.
https://money.cnn.com/2011/04/25/markets/silver_gold_prices_record/index.htm

"The metals are getting a lot of attention right now," said Terry Hanlon, president of Dillon Gage Metals, a precious metals trading firm based in Dallas. "We'll run right through $50 per ounce for silver any day now, and two months from now, we won't even remember it as a benchmark."

Gold prices also continued to shine in record territory, rising 1% to hit a fresh intraday high of $1,519.20 an ouncebefore settling up 0.4% at a record close of $1,509.10 an ounce.

Both gold and silver, which is often called the poor man's gold, have taken on the role of currencies as the dollar loses its luster and inflation fears run wild, said Hanlon. He expects gold to top $1,700 an ounce and silver to reach $75 an ounce within a year.

"This is a huge safety play," he said. "Investors can't sit on their cash anymore because the value of the dollar keeps deteriorating. To offset that, they're parking money in precious metals."

The dollar: 98-pound weakling of currencies
The dollar index, which measure the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, has fallen more than 6% in 2011.

A number of factors are driving investors away from the dollar and toward safe- haven investments such as gold and silver. Among the reasons are deficit problems in the United States and Europe, and rapidly rising food and commodity prices, especially in emerging markets.
_____________________________________________

I know several on this forum that really believed this, then. and of course today wish they hadn't "parked their money in precious metals" as they lost big!

Most hoarders of PM without definitive plans as to selling at set times or rates will continue to fall for the greater fool theory of continually rising bullion prices. If the amount is of no consequence if you lose the apparent gains in one bad crash of the bullion market, then that is probably OK for a person, but if they were planning on using it for a life changing purpose, it was probably a killer. Think the bullion dealers apologized????

I know people play the Lotto and such, but there the actual chances are known, and no one can say "Park your money on the Mega, it is a huge safety play!.

Jim

 

Welcome.
I look at silver as a semi-precious metal, just like semi-key date coins. And I don't look at PMs as investments - they are money. I don't price them in dollars, because that is irrelevant since we have gone to a fiat currency - they can print or create as many as they want. I price PMs in gallons of gasoline, or pounds of beef. As J.P. Morgan said, "Gold is money. Everything else is credit."

 

Can one of the mods or admins write some code that stops the same pics from being posted more than 25 time.

 

If gasoline is $10/gallon, everything will cost about 4-5x more. So $40 silver looks good, but has not kept up with inflation. People with less money to spend buy silver. And they will be the first that need to sell. This glut of silver being sold will saturate the market, and force the price down (supply and demand).

 

And I wonder how many of them did in fact "back up the truck" when silver "dipped" back to $30, or $25, or $20, or...

 

I price gallons of gasoline in gallons of milk, so I can cancel the units.

Breakfast can be a bit confusing, though.

 

Silver bullion is more accurate than ASE's.
I don't buy ASE to accumulate. I buy 10oz silver bullion. Now you can do your analysis accurately.

Thnx

 

10 oz bar, random mint sell: 162.90
buy back: $149
https://www.jmbullion.com/10-oz-silver-bar/
Price difference 9%

Silver needs to increase 9% for you to break even, but only 4% for gold for you to break even on your gold purchase. Gold is still the better buy.

The added problem is that your silver bar is very easy to counterfeit. Something like a gold Maple is near impossible to counterfeit.

Gold is better because:
lower premium (around 4%) than silver (9%)
easier to store (1 oz of gold=85 ounces of silver at today's prices)

 

You're talking about pennies. 5% more for silver (than gold) price spread to break even means only an additional increase from $16.29/oz for silver to $17.10/oz. Anything above $17.10/oz the profitability is almost geometric (sic) compared to that of gold.

 

Your risk is far less with Silver but so is the reward, you need to compare
Apples to apples, the percentage of gains maybe higher or lower depending
On the circumstances, but if you fail in Silver the negative is allot less then
It is with Gold.

 

Its like arguing which is better in beer., potato salad or cole slaw.