Gold and Silver charts

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1a) Supply and demand
1b) Supply and demand

2a) No
2b) We haven't hit the real bottom yet. PM's are still declining.

3a) All depends on your point of view
3b) Yes--In the next 3 to 5 years all PM's are expected to increase or decrease from current price levels

Gold st 20-30 times the price of silver? I don't want to know what your interpretation of the fundamentals are! You can't be serious. Silver at $20.00 per ounce is $400.00 for 30 ounces and 30 ounces would be $600.00. Silver isn't even at $15.00 per ounce! Gold is almost doubled your interpretation.

The PM's are controlled by supply and demand. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Interesting “discussion”. Purely in the interest of my own education, what is the effect of Central Banks buying significant amounts of physical gold? Is it part of the demand or is it a way to remove product from the supply side?

I’ve been confused by the CBs and their gold stacking ways for some time.

 

They stock it because they believe some of their clients will want it, nothing more. Trust me, it has ZERO to do with believing the currency is going to collapse. That is PURELY the province of fever dreaming conspiracy nuts.

 

This is a much more complex question than it may appear. First we must ask which CB's are buying?

This is a nice graph that shows that the top 3 Cb holders of gold (US, Germany and Italy) have not changes their holdings in the last 18 years. 3 of the top ten have dis-hoarded or sold (France, Switzerland, and the Netherlands) The UK could be added to this as their sales have removed them from the top 10.
That leaves 4 in the top ten that have added since 2000 (Russia, China, japan and India)
http://bmg-group.com/international-gold-reserves-by-central-bank-by-country/

As to why they have added, you can just "trust" the other poster as to the reason. Maybe he has some inside information from these countries that he isn't sharing.
Here is an article from those "fever dreaming conspiracy nuts" over at Forbes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonc...uying-spree-over-dollar-worries/#214d3f9d1fc2

A very important point that should be addressed is gold "leasing" which is basically loaning physical gold. This trick allows the holder to keep the gold on their books even though they no longer possess it. It also allows the leased gold to be sold, in which case it would also appear on the books of the buyer. That would be a topic to be addressed in a separate reply.

 

Yes, Forbes IS fever dreaming conspiracy nuts, down to the BONE. I just thought everyone already knew that.

The Nut in Chief is Steve Forbes himself.

 

That article from Forbes was very helpful, thank you. The gold bug community writes as though Central Banks are all buying up gold. Interesting which countries actually are buyers.

That phrase, “fever dreaming conspiracy nuts” is wonderful. Hyperbolic name-calling worthy of cable news or internet media sites. I recognize your intent in using it but I smile every time I look at it. Thanks for that, too.

 

The NEXT time you read something true from the gold bug community, it will have been the very FIRST time in their entire history.

 

As to your charts, it looks to me like gold is doing what you’ve pointed out, but I’m not sure your conclusion is correct. Gold futures are down at the moment. Combined with your chart that could indicate another higher low. If you haven’t had enough rudeness or trolling, yet, perhaps an update in 90 days or so might be more definitive.

The silver chart is less scrutable. Meaning I don’t draw meaning from it. Probably not the chart’s fault. One of my bosses used the word PICNIC to describe this situation - Problem In Chair, Not In Computer. Thanks for your efforts.

 

Now THAT'S the best line I've read in a good long while!

 

Try writing, with pen and paper, the following: ID, the number ten followed closely by an capital i. What does that tell you? I've seen that error numerous times in this thread. You're exempt.

 

Problem with commentator, not in coin is what is used in the coin variety section.

 

did I just read that Inflation = the rise in money supply?

@V. Kurt Bellman I wonder if that's M0/1, M2, M3, M4 ?
Maybe MZM/velocity as that is an *indicator* of inflation?
time for a PICNIC as yogy used to say ...

 

Keep in mind, these are weekly charts, They take months to start to play out.
When I said I believed that gold would break the downtrend line, I could have said something more like "I see a 75% chance gold will break the lt. Blue line within the next 3 months" Charts to me help recognize and show potentials and what could be signals to be watched for. For example when a shorter moving average crosses a longer one to the upside, it does not mean the price will go up, but it does increases the CHANCE that it will.
Here is a close up of gold with a few lines added.
The green and red horizontal show the range of the past few years. LT blue is an average
of the 2 upper downtrend lines in pink. Solid is the current, strong one and dotted is an older, broken, weaker one. Same for the uptrend lines.
Where the solid green is, you can see the 2 moving averages in red and blue converge, as well as being the middle of the range, it is also close to current price.
I do NOT know what is going to happen. but as the price reacts to those lines, i can adjust the probability of a longer term up or down outcome.

 

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/trying-to-play-the-gsr-horrible-idea.294820/

Charts show price over time. They show nothing of what causes changes in price over time.

"Learning history" involves studying causes of events, not just memorizing event positions on a timeline. (Although I knew some teachers, and many students, who didn't seem to understand that.)

Making predictions from charts is claiming that a history of price over time contains all the information you need to predict price at a future time. And that, to me, is fundamentally silly.

Then, oh, boy, do I have the thread for you!

TRYING TO "Play the GSR" -- HORRIBLE IDEA

 

I know the question was not directed at me but since he was wondering what my intent was, i shall. The question of which monetary aggregate I was referring to is a moot one as the 3 primary aggregates are all and have been increasing, with no sign of easing.
MZM/v would be an indicator of the likelihood of rising prices, but i don't really know. I'm not an economist by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Every word here is correct. Including that the velocity of money is STILL moribund, even now this far out from the 2008 crisis.

 

"T"

I may or may not have actually put that error code in some software before. It may or may not have been quickly removed

 

It's the ID 10 T error. Thanks for the correction.

 

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