How will gold play out in 2018?

If it was, you wouldn’t be reading about hedge funds losing their shirts in a market where it can be argued that a gorilla pointing at a stock page could make money.

 

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There are some very strange trends that are happening right now since you have seen a crazy market run for the past decade. In 2018, I think gold will trend upward but it will start to lag or pull back a bit in the slow summer trading months. Gold is starting to trend higher in on up market days which is unusual. I have a feeling that many traders are starting to lock in profits and hedging money in silver/gold ETFs.

 

Possibly there are things that may be effecting the supply side of the PM markets. In recent years, huge recoveries of silver bullion were made from at least 2 World War II deepwater shipwrecks, and also the recovery of a large cargo of silver coins that Deepwater Recovery was directed to turn over to the Spanish government. In all likelihood, there've been other, much- less-publcized recoveries.
Think of all the crazy, hard-driving groups and individuals discovering and recovering deposits of raw gold from the Bering seafloor and and deep, extinct riverbed gravels, using technology on a scale unheard of only 2 or 3 decades ago, as well as major deep sea recoveries such as the SS Republic and the SS Central America as well as others of which we've heard little?
Could we see a situation where, thanks to advanced technology, inventories of PM's will balloon ahead of demand and moderate substantial price increases?

 

On 12-31-18 gold will open at 1352.03 and close at 1351.97

 

It's very easy to pick stocks, and it's just as easy to lose your shirt. There is no sure bet, but it's a lot more risky when anybody can pump and dump your investment. Not so easy to do with a big market like gold, which is why silver is usually the one taking the beating.

I'm not interested in YoY returns in anything. I'm interested in cycles. Whatever happens in 2018 probably won't rock my boat.

 

I think it's worth considering the increase in energy and cost demands to support such new technologies. Divers aren't cheap. Big machines aren't cheap. Mining asteroids may never be cost effective at today's prices.

But demand could feasibly overrule all of that if say everybody lost interest, or if everybody got interested, sure. Anything is possible. I'm banking on history prevailing over the big lie.

 

Interest rates up...gold down.

 

In the late 70s interest rates were at an all time modern high. So was gold and silver.

 

Yes, they were. And inflation, at least in the United States, was running at annual double digits even with high interest rates.

Earlier this decade, gold and silver went on a rampage with near-zero interest rates and no inflation to speak of. The reason: a widespread belief that quantitative easing would trigger hot inflation. It didn’t — and PMs fell back to Earth.

 

As I recall, real inflation was a tad higher back then...

 

I'm completely out of touch with consumer jewelry preferences, but if this is true, why has platinum been languishing so badly?

 

No idea sir. However, remember Japan has always been PT heavy jewelry, China is moving that way. Most of the rest of Asia is very heavily gold though.

Maybe US jewelry demand is not much quantity, maybe it is less than decreased catalyst demand. All I know is PT is down, but I see it being more used than I used to.

Eh, like silver, its a pretty plaything I like. No harm there. Plus, I have "discovered" the proof platinum eagle series. Very pretty coins, and tiny mintages. I might just put together a set or two for fun. I think that is an important key to bullion investing. If you can have fun doing it, at least you are actively getting some return from it while you hold onto it, right?

Unlike gold, PT has a very tiny mining industry supplying it. Maybe I will just hold onto it until the next major SA strike disrupts production.

 

I really like the platinum eagle designs, too, but I'm loath to pay those premiums. And the one that I did buy was right before Pt's recent big drop. Ouch.

 

Severely doubt gold will get to 2000, possibly 1500.

 

I'll begin accumulating gold again once it drops below $800/oz.

 

I’ll accumulate too, but I’m not holding my breath waiting for $800.

 

I was working in Asia in the late 90's and bought a bunch of 22k chains and rings when gold dropped below $400/oz.

I know gold will never get that low again...but I'm still hoping.

 

Maybe when inflation lops a zero off the dollar.

 

Here's an interesting article...for people who like this sorta stuff.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/where-will-we-get-the-cash

 

I don’t do tea leaves or crystal balls. My business serves commercial construction. When we are busy, people are building and the economy is cooking then PM’s tend to be stable. That’s when I am buying. The construction outlook remains strong so my gut tells me PM’s will be stable for the foreseeable future..... So my guess to the OP’s question is I believe gold will be about where it is now...... How’s that for a rookie approach to PM’s? Been doing it that way since before the turn of the century...... It doesn’t make any real difference to me either way. The PM’s that I hoard are meant for my kids and grandkids when I depart this party anyway. I just like lookin’ at em while I am here....