Silver Is On A Tear Today

Could be Force Majeure silver coming.
Force majeure in the silver market refers to contractual clauses invoked when uncontrollable events—such as mining strikes, natural disasters, or severe supply chain disruptions—prevent the delivery of physical silver
. Recent concerns highlight potential shortages, including low COMEX inventory and high demand, which could lead to cash settlements instead of physical delivery.
Key Aspects of Silver Force Majeure

• Definition: A legal clause relieving parties from fulfilling contracts due to unforeseen, uncontrollable events (e.g., pandemic, war, labor strikes).
• Supply Chain Disruptions: Events like the strike at the Peñasquito mine in Mexico or disruptions in the Middle East can trigger such declarations, affecting global supply
  .
• Market Impact: If a major exchange (like COMEX) or supplier declares force majeure, it can lead to massive price volatility and force cash settlements for derivative positions (futures, ETFs) if they cannot supply physical metal.
• Current Risks: A growing 176-million-ounce deficit, coupled with central bank hoarding and increased industrial demand, has increased the risk of delivery failures.
• Distinction from Default: While some fear a "force majeure default," others argue that a lack of inventory alone does not constitute force majeure unless caused by an "Act of God" or similar external event; otherwise, it is a contractual default.

Examples include CME Group declaring force majeure due to "operational limitations" on a NYC gold depository in 2012.

 

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And it just dipped under $88. Still up for thaw day.

 

Poker hand boys?

 

Just bought another roll of silver half dollars. These are collectibles to me, so I'm not too worried about the price (actually I think silver has been undervalued for the past few decades). I guess I'm in the minority buying 90 percent silver right now - my understanding is that retail is largely offloading.

 

If what you buy means more to you than the money you spent to get it it doesn't matter what you paid.

 

I have felt the silver price could seriously run with the way the national debt and money printing grow exponentially. I think the silver bugs were right - not the extreme types calling for $1,000+ silver, but there were respected doubters that silver could go to $100+ this cycle. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if silver hits $1,000+ - nothing shocks me anymore. I was buying when silver was below $20, so I am DCAing a bit. If silver were to fall to $50 or below, I'd probably back up the truck so to speak through an ETF. So one way or another I'd eventually make my money here.

 

But what you like. If silver goes up, good for you. If silver drops, let it drop until it levels off. Then buy more, all you can. The more you buy, the more you can average your purchase price down overall.
IE. If you buy a silver dime for $8 and the price drops do you can buy another dime at $6, you paid $7 for each dime. If you can buy 3 dimes at $6 then you paid $6.50 each. Buy 9 at $6 and you cost is lowered to $6.20 each.

 

And it’s back up thirty cents in trading so far. Up, down, back up.

 

According to Numista, a Mercury dime has a melt value of $6.40 right now. I think that's cheap. Yeah, I know, I remember when I was buying them for $2.00-2.25, but even then I knew it was an insane buy. I think one of the reasons why 90% silver is selling for melt or slightly below it (the half dollars I just bought were at or slightly below) is because retail holds this and retail is selling. So coin shops are flooded with this silver and have no way to flip it for profits, leading to cash problems. Sooner or later the refineries will get caught up. This leads me to believe, once they are caught up, a lot of the 90% will get melted if retail does not buy, which is not a bad thing as it makes the coins more scarce. I for one was never opposed to vintage sterling silver getting melted, as I felt it would give the collections that are preserved more value.