How will Fighting in Iran affect Metals?

We have increased oil production from about 4.5 MMboe/d to close to 13 MMboe/d. 80% of the boost is fracking.

 

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With the amount of military presence in the region, i would think this to be a fairly easy task keeping the strait open, Iran has been depleted at every level, if it was me would take out all navel assets and have are ships localized to intercept any missles
coming in as much as possible, and lets not kid are selfs here, this isnt johnny hopscotch this is war and people die, and theres no getting around that !

 

Lives for oil. Sounds familiar

 

Silver has the map upside down.

 

Iranian leadership already has a position for you all lined up...LOL

 

According to the news the Iranian leadership are lined up themselves--kiss the sky.

 

PM’s are down big time today but they have recovered a little since the big drop.

 

LOL? Nice. I won't to see your response so don't bother.

 

And like a car you’re following locks the brakes and goes sideways. Poland was an aggressive buyer of gold just last month. This morning announced they plan to sell to buy defensive weapons
As of March 5, 2026, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is considering selling a portion of its roughly 550 tons of gold reserves to raise up to 48 billion zloty ($13 billion) for defense financing, according to
Bloomberg.com and Binance. This potential sale follows a period where Poland was a major buyer of gold

 

Except it's not easy because Iran has massive stocks of missiles and the strait is right next to them. My guess is they have complete surveillance of the strait and have the technology - perhaps with help from Russia and China - to take out tankers despite the social media posts of U.S. officials. But then again, I am not a military expert, so I am open to being corrected.

 

I know sometimes I write contradictory stuff, because the world is so complex with so many parts running at the same time. Overall, the war against Iran is bullish because it brings instability and uncertainty to the Middle East, and the U.S. will have to print more money to fund the war.

Now I'm going to put my speculative hat on - going a bit crazy here, since no one knows the future exactly. I think if Iran continues to launch missiles at U.S. bases and Israel, and refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boots on the ground would be the next phase - not due to choice but rather necessity. We'll need hundreds of thousands of troops to take out Iran, trillions of dollars, and I don't know how the U.S. will pay for this with a $38 trillion+ debt. If so, gold could reach $10,000.

 

The national debt is irrelevant here. This was is a 1-time event, like a non-recurring charge on a balance sheet. It has a finite period of time that it exists....and then it ends (unlike entitlement programs).

It's a non-event for the market.

 

Not sure if it is completely irrelevant, since the US taxpayers will be taxed to pay the interest on the debt… yeah fiat my deflate, but we are saddled with that in the end.

 

The U.S. can spend almost infinitely - and monetize its own debts - by projecting and enforcing its military power throughout the world. This need to project strength is what could force the U.S.'s hand to put boots on the ground. So I agree that while the military is costly, there's a return on investment in propping up the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency. I guess the issue is that even with the entire world fearing you, there must be a theoretical cap on what you can spend. I think the more time passes and the more we spend, the closer to that cap we go. I just have no clue how much higher the debt can go before this system breaks. Maybe this will be a one-off that can be written off in time. Maybe that cap is much higher than I believe. I don't know. In any case, gold is good.

 

In the 1950's and 1960's, close to 50% of the Federal budget and about 8-10% of the GDP went to military spending.

Today, those figures are 18% and 3.5% (or less).

The entire "military industrial complex" thing is a canard invented by people who can't access the Statistical Charts that are there every year in the Economic Report of The President (or other data put out by the relevant departments).

I agree.....gold is good.

 

It's miniscule. We can afford it.

The bond market isn't afraid of us overextending ourselves in military conflicts. It knows they happen...and they end.

It's more afraid of spending and entitlements out of control...which DO NOT END but continue to GROW AND GROW AND GROW.

 

World Gold Council tracks this but on balance CBs are net buyers:

 

Will gold up or down in tonight’s magnet? This is their Friday. And it opens in a few minutes.

 

I’d expect gold up with tensions high
And silver just found a new supply shock. Number two in silver production, Peru, just went into emergency mode. A natural gas pipeline that feeds most of the electrical production is down. Refining is a huge energy user. Copper and silver just found a floor
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...isis-country-energy-minister-says-2026-03-05/