Silver Is On A Tear Today

100% true

But this sale is at a profit, not at a loss. The "wash sale" rule is specific for stocks sold at a loss. My specific situation is rolling the profitable stock/funds, into the same stock /funds in my Roth acct. I can also sell stock that have lost money, and buy other stuff to bypass the wash sale, or just wait to buy it again 31 days lated if I wanted to.

 

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The "spoofing" was individual traders. It doesn't affect the long-term price of silver. JPM doesn't speculate in commodities or PMs...the regulators would have the CEO hauled off.

They weren't stockpiling silver, they were placing long and short positions for clients as a custodian.

Their profits from PM trading are <1% of the bank's total. They haven't earned $1 trillion in total profits unless you go back to about 2005, maybe earlier.

If all those activities you cite are so bad -- and the longs do the same thing, BTW -- then how come the price is moving up NOW ? How come it moved up in 2011-12....and then collapsed for a decade ?

Maybe the markets move on their own, and with only a few excptions with a big player (i.e., China, a large hedge fund, Tesla, etc.)...they reflect fairly what supply and demand want, huh ?

 

I understand that we're all supposed to be moving back to coal-fired AI servers.

 

The

The bankers make the rules. When the rules don't favor them, they change the rules. When the rule changes don't favor them, they change the law..... We all know thats the way it goes, but it doesn't make it right. Like all Casino's the House always has the advantage.
If Silver traded at free market prices, it would have been in triple digits ages ago.

 

In technical terms it’s the signal to noise ratio. Speculation is the noise, supply v demand is the signal

 

No, the exchange sets the rules. And regardless, changing margin requirments is affirmatively permited in all brokerage agreements.

Are you saying the price should be set by a leveraged speculator and not a strong-hands non-leveraged long ? Even with the former, silver has NEVER traded at triple-digits. Blaming shorts for a price not realized is something done for centuries.

Again, margin amounts are allowed to be changed. It's disclosed beforehand.

I doubt it. Even with all the positives, it just cracked $80. You're saying it would have been over $100 years ago ?

Are you a silver speculator ? Do you "invest" in silver, Eric ? If you do, I think that may be coloring your perspective. There's no more of a plot to depress the price than there is/was to increase it.

You have shorts and longs fighting it out. If the institutional longs aren't complaining, why should you ? If there was a conspiracy, don't you think a hedge fund, SWF, or institution would have gone on CNBC or "60 Minutes" to blow the lid off ?

These conspiracies -- focused on JPM -- are simply click-bait stuff by website guys looking to drum up business.

 

Bank lobbyists actively draft legislation, sometimes writing entire sections that appear in bills, influencing rules to favor the industry, as reported by NPR and The New York Times.

 

Looks like we're back to the same trading range as Christmas Eve, and the market thinks Dec. 26 and this morning's early hours were irrational exuberance. We'll see. You can go broke betting against irrationality.

 

Give it up Goldfinger the Markets are Rigged. We all know it

 

This was the pull back everyone was expecting. It should consolidate a bit and launch higher. Raising Margin requirements flushes out the speculators but doesn't deter the Industrial giants who actually need the physical metal. This isn't over, its just beginning.

 

This is for you Sal, love ya man

Consolidation
stock trading, consolidation refers to a stock's price moving sideways within a narrow range (between support and resistance) after a strong upward or downward trend, signaling market indecision or a pause, often forming patterns like triangles or rectangles, and traders watch for a breakout (up or down) from this range as a signal for the next big move. It's a period where buyers and sellers are balanced, often characterized by decreasing volume and volatility, before the stock decides on a new direction.
Key Characteristics:

• Sideways Movement: Price bounces within defined support (low) and resistance (high) levels.
• Market Indecision: Buyers and sellers are in equilibrium, waiting for new information or momentum

 

Still thinking some down pressure if world peace breaks out
But one stray missile in the Strait of Taiwan would go the other way. Maybe I’m wrong

 

Good point, I've been watching that. The whole world seems to be on fire, in one way or the other. Taiwan, Ukraine, Venezuela, Sudan, Gaza .......We are living in interesting times.

 

Yes, rigged against the longs when things don't go up as much as they want...and riggeded against the shorts when things don't collapse.

While you guys debate who's rigging what, the rest of us will make $$$.

 

Unfortunately we live in a world where war is a business. If your country is economically faltering just fire up a nice little war.

 

Something of use for you silver afficionados :

 

Here's the summary of the BTIG Silver Report, plus the entire PDF. I have highlighted key points:

It's Never Different

Parabolic Advance in Precious Metals Likely Nearing a Peak

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Precious metals have gone parabolic. There is no other way to put it. While there may be solid fundamental reasons for these moves, and we have heard 'it's different this time', at some point the current price reflects all of that good news. Parabolas only end one way, with an equal and opposite downside reaction. They do not correct through time. While we have called several tactical topsin metals this year with various success, in hindsight just sticking with the structural uptrend was the easier play. With that said, the moves we have witnessed over the last few weeks are historic, and suggest we are in a final blowoff stage. For those that have enjoyed the run we would certainly take some precautions. Forthose looking for tactical trades, we think there will be significant downside from current levels over the coming weeks. As far as the equity market goes, we will have more to say in the coming days but overall we don't see any fat pitches right now. We continue to think sentiment is complacent which leaves stocks vulnerable heading into January, but until we see some actual sell pressure it's hard to act on sentiment alone.

■ Silver - It's Never Different. Silver is ~89% above its 200 DMA. Outside of the 'Hunt Brothers' squeeze in 1979, every time Silver has been 60% above its 200 DMA it has been meaningfully lower 20, 30 and 40 days later. While the fundamental story might be different this time, the 174% YTD gain has likely priced in much of that good news.

■ The average 40-day return following such a spread is -12%, and -23% excluding 1979. Yes in 1979 it did go more than 200% above its 200 DMA. However, from its peak in January 1980 to May 1980, it fell -78%. In other words,the more extreme the upside is in a parabolic move, the more extreme the equal and opposite reaction is.

■ Even a pullback to the 20 DMA (normal, healthy) would represent a -20% decline. We suspect a pullback to the 50 DMA (55.40) is highly likely in the coming 1-2 months. That would represent a -25-30% pullback depending on the timing.

■ Historic ETF Volume. Friday the SLV traded $9.6bn in notional dollar volume. That is the second-highest in its history behind May 2011, just after the final peak. That is clear evidence of a blowoff.

■ A Rare 10% Daily Gain. Silver was up over 10% on Friday, one of the largest single day gains ever. The last time it gained 10% into a multi-month high was in 1987. It marked the peak and fell -25% over the next few weeks.

■ Largest Weekly Gain in 45yrs. 18% gain last week, the largest one week gain in 45- years. The four weeks prior saw gains of +12.95%, +3.26%, +6.2%, +8.39%. There have only been three down weeks since mid-August. That is a parabolic advance.

■ Miners Lagging Materially. Ratio ofsilver minersto the metal peaked in September. In 2010 and 2020, the ratio peaked ahead of the metal itself by several months. Yet another warning sign the advance is mature.

■ Monthly RSI 91, only higher into the final peak of the Hunt Brothers squeeze.

■ Platinum Historic Run. The 10-day rate-of-change is 44%. The prior record was 23% coming out of Covid. It's 70% above its 200 DMA, the widest spread on record. Nothing comes close to the run we have just seen.

 

It's terrifying when you look at the current Economic status and debt to GDP ratio around the World.
Here's a list of countries with very high debt-to-GDP ratios (estimates for 2025):

1. Japan: Around 229-230%.
2. Sudan: Near 222-222% (some sources cite higher due to instability).
3. Singapore: Around 173-176%.
4. Venezuela: Approximately 164%.
5. Greece: Around 142-147%.
6. Bahrain: Around 141-142%.
7. Maldives: Around 132-141%.
8. Italy: Roughly 137%.
9. United States: Around 123-125%.

Eurozone's public debt is substantial (around 82-88% of GDP for the EU average), while China's total debt (public, corporate, household) is very high, exceeding 300% of GDP
They say history repeats itself

 

Often does, but NOT always.

Besides....it took Greece, a 3rd rate economy, nearly 30 years to implode because of the Socialist stupidity they embraced.

How long do you think it will take a modern, 1st rate economy to implode ? How about the United States of America, the global reserve financial superpower ?

Are you willing to stay out of stocks and bonds and diss the dollar for another 100 years to be proven right ? Even if I lived that long, I wouldn't.

 

Yet wars in this century have been ruinous to both the victor and the fallen.

Wars worked when we were on a mercantilistic and barter system and gold/silver were the prizes.