GOLD NEARING $4000

If anyone has a reference for a chip coin, I’ve got my ears on

 

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Well, you never know so anything is possible...but those numbers for a correction are what you often see in a bull market.

Technically, it would take a 20% drop to reverse the market call from bullish to bearish.

If you think the NASDAQ will keep setting new highs and trade tensions completely fade and Central Banks will not be buying gold and might even start selling....then yes, you want out of silver and gold.

The refinery backup situation is interesting as it is coincident with the peaking of silver...but once resolved, lots of "weak hands" should have sold and we should be able to make new ATHs.

 

Not sure I posted this before:

 

Dude... an article from September 29 is so ridiculously outdated in this market that it is effectively useless. It is full of speculation and opinion, and zero facts.

 

To me, this is a far more interesting point... Refineries are only accepting 999 silver. They aren't accepting Constitutional, Sterling, or any others. And they are preferring large bars.

 

I agree, it's a very relevant data-point in real time and recent.

Others have more experience and knowledge with their knowledge of the refiners....but this is the action that one would expect during a correction and/or making a bottom.

We got a bit out ahead of our skis.

 

I disagree....it gives you insight into what the institutional sell-side are thinking and they don't change their minds daily or weekly. If the underlying fundamentals in an analysis like this remain, even if the price action deteriorates, then the bull case remains.

Yes, there's opinion there....based on analysis, facts, supply and demand considerations, etc. Lisa Cooke and tariffs are relevant for gold, as we have seen before.

Note too that their PT for gold -- $4,000 -- was eclipsed by almost 10%. They have NOT upped their PT (yet) but are still bullish now that gold is below that level. They also note we've had a big run and "sticker shock" for retail buyers of gold is likely. I agree and that hasn't helped in recent weeks/months and won't if/when we go higher.

You don't want daytraders changing their PTs daily or weekly....you want actionable ideas that have staying power.

But to each his own....

 

Commentator today noted that a survey of traders showed 94% bullish on gold a few weeks ago...that is RARELY seen (> 90%) so the correction we've seen shouldn't be a surprise. 94% is super-crowded.....70% and 80% often mark peaks.

As long as gold stays above $3,500 the bull trend will remain among TA folks. Let's see if we defend $4,000 (big round numbers are important).

 

Yep, correction they happen and I'm here for it, bring on the pressure! Some may even sell but I think they would regret it! Actually it's an opportunity to get more gold at a lower price, not me though, no dinero!

 

"A Few Weeks Ago"... aka.. before the peak.

I'd be very interested to hear a similar survey now... a week or two after the peak.

 

I believe Market Vane surveys members every 2 weeks. So that would be just about the time gold peaked.

I'll see if I can get their next survey. But it will basically be confirmed by other evidence and surveys...when the "weak hands" have been flushed out, the metals will bottom.

Remember, gold has big buyers underneath -- SWFs, CBs, ultra-rich -- and those that missed out at $4,300 will see $3,600 as a gift. They're not concerned if it goes down to $3,000 (they'll buy more) or pops to $5,000...they're in it for the next 10-15 years and a move to $10,000 or something like that.

 

1 more thing......yesterday Jeff "Bond King" Gundlach on CNBC (as he always is when the Fed concludes it's FOMC meetings) said that gold had been super-strong, was overbought, and cut his personal allocation from 25% to 10%.

That didn't help the price action after 3 PM once his position leaked out and Powell spoke, too.