Gold - Is $1900.00 the New Normal?

I love gold! It's exciting to look back on some of the prices I paid, even in 2023 and prices have gone up considerably! In Feb of 2023 I bought a 2023 gold buffalo BU from Liberty for a tad less than $2,000! Price today from Liberty is $2,622.23, yeah if I sold I wouldn't get that price but it's good to know my gold is safe and going upward! To the fricken moon!

https://libertycoin.com/2023-american-gold-buffalo-1-oz-50-bu-23-buff-bu/

 

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OH yeah it is going along nicely maybe even more upside in future for both Silver and its High Society Partner Mr. Gold.
Well Done Fretboard

 

Still looking for $3,000 by 2030 (could be conservative) and $5,000 by 2035.

Fundamentals lining up beautifully. This article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the UKT talks about some tailwinds helping gold. I don't agree with the ultimate conclusion or every underlying bullish variable he cites, but in the aggregate I think it's on target.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...ally-forewarning-fiscal-ruin-global-dystopia/

 

Gold closed under $2600 today. I checked some dates of purchases and see that I was last buying in 2018 and a little in 2019 and I was paying between $1200 and $1300 for one ounce bullion coins, like the gold buffalo and American Eagles. I bought one numismatic rarety a couple of weeks ago because the premium over melt was low and the coin fit my collection really well. If gold goes under 1500 I might buy again, otherwise I'm set.... Just letting them all sit around and gather dust for a couple of decades or so... Then we'll see?? The wages for dishwashers might hit $50/hr if certain expectations and predictions are met.... Maybe an investment in rubber gloves?

 

And certain lubricants. Bulk packs.

 

There seems to be more optimism in a stable economy since (well, you know November 5th). I think that's just temporary though, and a allows a slight dip to get in the precious metals game. Until our currency is more than just fiat fodder,
metals have nowhere to go but up.

 

My belief that gold is going SUBSTANTIALLY higher has nothing to do with politics, BitCoin and crypto, the dollar, etc.

It's just demand stronger than supply....Economics 101. Supply (including central bank sales) is drying up and demand is increasing every year.

We're at $2,600. When it's $4,000...folks will be saying "why didn't I buy more at $3,000 ?"

 

But is it simply central bank sales? I know the Russian central bank is buying, but new production was 3,644 tons of gold in 2023 and recycling surged to 1,237 tons. Isn't the supply demand really central bank BUYING versus increasing production, with retail interest increasing simply because the price has increased, (market movements always attract attention).

Given historical trends, I am not saying $2500ish is an unfair price at this point, its just that I believe downward movement is also possible, (Russia settles Ukraine and stops hoarding gold, low oil like we see now spurs even more production, other assets attract attention away from gold, etc).

I would like lower gold so I can simply buy more coins.

 

Yea, World Peace!
Ain’t bettin that way

 

I don't disagree. The gold standard never really went away, it was deferred until people realized the central banks were built on a house of marshmellows. A currency or standard of value is only as good as confidence in that valuation. Voodoo-nomics has been exposed. That's not political, it's just a fact. I'm not a bit coin guy, but I'll say this. It's the only crypto currency that has a finite source. The same can be for precious metals unless we start mining Mars.

 

Where are you seeing 3644 tons for 2023 ? That seems a bit high though maybe the higher price freed up some production.

CB demand is more ineleastic than consumer demand. But more consumers can afford to buy....the middle class in China and India add 20 million people a year.

Gold can certainly go lower.

I think even if we sold off $200-$300 on a Russia-Ukraine deal, the dip would be bought.

 

World gold council:

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/resear...ply in 2023 increased,in recycling, to 1,237t.

I view gold could easily retrench to $1800 over a two year period. Yes, long term its is always up due to nature of depreciating currencies, but the spike has been pretty hard upwards the last few years, meaning reversion toward long term trendline is very possible.

In many ways gold is simply condensed oil, and if worldwide oil prices stay low it will lead to higher gold production and lower prices, all things else being equal.

Or, maybe its just wishful thinking so I can buy more coins, IDK. I bought quite a bit when gold was $1200, but of course would always like to own more.

 

Respectfully I disagree. Bitcoin is on the verge of 100k. Fiat currency worldwide has zero respect and confidence. Mankind has sought a respected medium of exchange for thousands of years. We still are not there yet.

 

I agree, and was going to bring up bitcoin. BUT, what happened when Bitcoin went up? Gold went down. Is gold losing its long term store of value reputation? The moves were directly opposite of each other after the election. Its not really supportive of gold moving massively higher.

Always lots of variables. I am not trying to say I know what will happen, rather I am giving the contra case of what could happen and everyone can make up their own mind.

 

If you want perfection.....

The dollar is the global reserve financial currency. It works. It is used on 90% of all foreign exchange transactions, $7 TRILLION every day.

The U.S. fixed income markets -- Treasury and MBS -- are the ONLY large, liquid, open, transparent financial markets capable of handling multi-billion inflows from CBs, SWFs, institutions, the super-rich, or other inflows in one day or a few days. NO OTHER fixed income market or money market can do that.

NOBODY !!

Those two bond markets trade $550 billion and $350 billion a day....the next closest is the British Gilt market at about $40 billion. Other sovereigns and the U.S. corporate market are in tens of billion.

Bitcoin is not a currency even if it goes up. It's an asset class like tech stocks or small cap stocks. Caveat Emptor !

 

So what the heck is going on? Another rapid rise. I’m not complaining. Just befuddled.

 

It's quite obvious to a small group of us that realize we believe to know what relative factors are considerate in "investing".

Until recently when Gold prices were reducing, I was having difficulty finding more
than a couple Top Tier TPG 69/70 Gold coins per day that were of interest.

With dealer/investor/market changes after the elections, opportunities significantly changed, with banking also becoming a significant factor in "investing".

In the last few weeks, factors for quality 69/70 1/10-1oz. certified Gold coins "investing" changes, to where as a known ~170 I.Q. collector, lesser ~160 I.Q. genius individuals were requesting my acquisition assistance.

In the last 3 days 3-7 TPG certified Gold coins have been delivered at costs 20-30%
below current market prices, for my associates.

A correction is in order! JMHO

 

You think so? I honestly don't know. Today gold and BTC were on the same synch going up last time I looked. I didn't look at the close. I have no idea but it is fascinating to watch from the sidelines with what I already have.

I was listening to some guys the other day talking about NVDA. It seems the consensus now on that stock is to hold and never sell. It seems to be holding true.

 

Don't your arms ever get tired? Continuously patting yourself on the back must get exhausting.

I taught my competitive swimming children, from a very young age, that telling people you're a great swimmer, or any self accolade, is not what makes you great. You're great when others acknowledge your greatness and spread the word telling you and others that you're great that matters. If you have to tell people you're 'a genius' or in your words, an even higher level genius, you might not be nearly as smart as you think.

We have a saying in our family, SPS. I'm sure you know what that means since you're a higher level genius than everyone here. However, for all the other 'lesser' genius's, SPS is Self Praise Stinks.

Try humble. It's a much classier, welcoming, endearing, approachable character trait.

Edit: And for the record, you've touted your greater genius ~170 I.Q. enough times on this forum I'm sure everyone already knows it.

 

Thank you for your understanding of how one should show others why they have a special "god-given" talent!,

Our talents are not necessarily of our making!

We are not the source, but merely the sharer of a special partially unearned profile, that was explained in secrecy by others having great evaluatory talent.

We would never have understood your attitude towards personal humility!

A secret talent, believed of a humble swimmer!

My students/others, ask me where I received my education!

To answer/explain talents, they're informed that my personal blessings were as theirs, given by birth!

My "talents", were not understood, assumed to be stupidity, as others often had differing understandings of problems/solutions!

Until explained by others of greater analytical/testing talents, it was assumed that I was retarded!

Thank you for your respected, superior analytical/evaluatory/explanatory talents, as until recently, I've never understood the numerical reports/explanations received after forced "Aptitude" testing!

I'll try to follow your believed excellent communicatory examples, by limiting posts, as you/others/Google have suggested!

Although, in opposition to societal educational leaders who've requested I write/teach more unavailable subjects to acquire student/instructor feedback, as received from my "classes" to younger students that want to learn "HOW"!

Your satisfaction is of premier importance!!