Silver Below $14

If it is, I'll be buying more and continuing on my dollar cost average strategy of buying the dips. If it's not - I'll have accumulated a substantial portion at the bottom of the market.

And if it's not - you'll have missed the boat because you were only speculating. And if it is, will you buy - or wait because someone said it's going to $10?

Same as I do in stocks and funds, in real estate, in everything.

Heck - I even practice this when filling up the gas tank. Watch oil price trends, wait for Wed oil prices - and see the reflection in the pump on Thursday (which is when most change prices).

The key to all of this is studying the markets yourself - and not relying on generic trends and hearsay from pundits. It takes time and effort to get as good as the guys in the big brokerage houses. I'll probably never be that good - but I'm aspiring to. Calculated risk when knowing your tolerance is key.

 

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The real key is insider information

 

Mr. Button Up needs to a head check. Bottom line all things look to be we are at the start of the FLat Line for PM's.

Again Gold could not break $1,065.00 for very long again. Gold went right back up.

 

... Acting upon which is actually a crime. Ask Martha Stewart. She spent more time at a West Virginia located federal prison camp for women than she'd care to think of for doing some really minor insider info stuff, especially when compared to her total net worth.

I passed that prison on Amtrak's Cardinal train. It doesn't look that prison-y. More like a military base on rolling hill ground. The best analog that comes to mind is the Presidio in San Fran, with the buildings further apart.

 

Brett, it will go below $10 but not next year. I said $12 by the end of next year. Look around the world, troubling times are coming.

 

troubling times are here

 

Also, cynicism is often used as a crutch to explain faulty scholarship. "It didn't work out like I said, so the game must be rigged." Noooo. Maybe you just need to study more, and read more from printed pages than websites with an agenda. Websites, especially fancy ones, cost a lot to maintain. Most people need to make money to keep them running. That means they often masquerade selling/marketing as intellectual editorial content. Especially be skeptical of any website with the word "silver" in its title. It's about a 95% chance it's a sham. Look for the private interests when non-professionals push pie-in-the-sky easy answers. That's been true since Gutenberg's day, it only got orders of magnitude worse since the web came along.

The biggest growth industry created by the web is the ease with which conspiracy nuts get together.

 

I like your approach. I find myself thinking along a similar line. No one knows what the bottom (or top) is going to be. The only people who may know are those with any inside information. Even then it's not a guarantee.

I do think there are those that read and study a lot about economics and therefore have a good idea of what is more likely to happen, but even those people are wrong. And wrong more often than one might think. In order to profit long term (based soley on speculation), you only need to be right about 55-60%, after figuring in costs and commissions. So someone who speculates correctly in price movement 70%+ of the time (on a year to year timeframe) will become rich (or more rich) very quickly using compounding to their benefit. I really don't think there are many, if any, speculators out there who can predict at that rate of success (again, on a year to year timeframe).

Now if the "professionals" have a hard time getting it right that often then how is the common man, such as myself, supposed to get rich investing? All we can do to build a nice return is look to long term growth by consistently buying dips and selling highs.

Of course anyone can go "all in" and strike big and quick, but you are more likely to lose your ___. Even if you do hit it big once, you probably won't be as ahead as you would long term. So you would have to strike big a few times to get there. Then it becomes exponentially high risk. This is the equivalent of russian roulette, financial style, with more than one bullet in the chamber.

 

Compared to what's coming this is nothing. I'll be buying rounds but not bullion related rounds.

 

Can you also predict the winning lotto numbers? It would be a lot more lucrative!

 

Completely serious question - Do you think this is why Bass Pro is having trouble keeping inventory at normal levels? Are enough people arming themselves to the teeth in preparation of societal breakdown? I honestly thought, and still do, "prepping" was a stinking joke. I mean, once Family Guy or Dilbert lampoons you, your Warholian 15 minutes is supposed to be up, right? Family Guy nailed the preppers and Dilbert got the stackers.

 

Nope, but I'm glad you think it's a joke. Better pay attention Brett.

 

Don't know about Bas Pro but 185,000 background checks were issued on Black Friday. Lot of purchases were for more than 1 gun I imagine. So I could see the ammo retailers sales being very high.

 

Philosophical question - Is it okay to rather die than live like that, if that outcome comes to pass? I'm a really good shot and I live in a highly defensible location (almost as much bunker as house), but I'm starting to think I'd only want to use one round, if you get my meaning.

 

This has been a most entertaining and informative thread. Great read fellows.........

 

Where do you stand, Greenie? Would you rather live a post apocalyptic life or die? I submit each personal answer to this question at least partially informs their opinion on stacking, at least at the more extreme margins. In other words, if you were kind of old, kind of sick, had no kids depending on you, and you were in ground zero Aleppo, Syria, what would be your plan?

 

I don't think I'd do well in a post apocalyptic society.........I'm not a dog eat dog type of guy.

 

Now you did it. Mentioning dogs brought to mind cats, then synonyms thereof. This has moderator trouble written all over it!