Economist and multi-millionaire businessman Doug Casey of Casey Research recently released his “5 unsettling signs we’re headed for a worse crash than 2008” forecast. His number one reason is America’s banks are in greater danger now than before the GFC. Here’s what he had to say: “Remember derivatives? The absurdly complex financial instruments that essentially caused the massive bank failures in 2008… and led to the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression? Well, what if I told you the amount of exposure to derivatives the top five US banks have - right now, today - is 45% LARGER than it was just before the collapse in 2008? That’s not a typo. The very same people who created the 2008 banking crisis are at it again,- having created another, much bigger ($273 TRILLION) derivatives bubble (versus $187 trillion in ’08).”
If the government had anything to do with it, I believe it. Not sure what he's really saying but banks with no lending policies caused the 2008 collapse. Real estate was too high and everyone could get a loan to buy a house. All you had to do was show up at your local bank, apply and you had a load and a new house.
Banks were lending indiscreetly because they knew they had buyers lining up for all real estate loans. Now that the feds are again talking about loosening borrowing requirements for home buyers, the situation could conceivably get far worse than it already is. If they actually do that, it will be time to bail out of the USD.
I don't know if he still does them but Doug Casey used to do interviews with Lauren Lyster and they'd be posted on Youtube
In my opinion I do not feel that a full understanding is demonstrated of derivatives by the above posts, including the original. Derivatives are similar to options and contracts as they are suppose to have party-counterparty offset, so the end point is zero. Most of them function well as financial instruments. There are some ( not all by any means) who feel that Credit Default Swaps CDS (s) , traded in the over the counter derivatives markets, and the Mortgage Backed Securities MBS (s) a type of securitized debt swap caused the financial breakdown in 2007-10, but it wasn't the instruments themselves ( like saying gold caused Greece to fail), but the fact that the government was afraid large bank failures due to the offset of the balance and loose regulations would cause a greater financial disaster ( many bullionists would have probably cheered this on) than temporarily bailing out such institutions and changing the regulations. My thought is that the bail out was necessary or the whole world ( the US was not the only country involved in the risk play) would be in much worse financial trouble than it currently is. The trouble with the first post is that all derivative markets are clumped together, including options, contracts, ETFs , etc. , most of which function properly. Today there are higher capital standards ( margins) , more international checks and management, and many other regulations built and realigned as to demands of capital. Believe it if it makes you feel better, but one does need to know about derivatives, as they are not "absurdly complex" nor a cause for such alarm.
I have to mention that I really take offense to the bold text. How many times have you read "bullionists" cheering this on? It's probably come from a few sources numerous times as opposed to many, as you state. My belief is many "bullionists" keep bullion as a hedge against failure of current monetary system. They're not cheering it on, they're more interested in covering their behind. Many of them get it wrong, also, because it's not something to see you through that type of calamity, it's more something to stabilize yourself when the next monetary situation is put forth. One other thing, what investment banks are supposed to have and what they actually have are probably 2 very different things. My trust in them is nil, at best.
I have no idea why you take offense, first off, he said many, not all, there is a difference. Also if you don't believe there is a whole slew of stackers out there who can't wait for "it" to happen, well you just don't get out enough. What also compounds the matter is the stackers are a kinship that do not "turn" on each other, so when one stacker posts a comment that indicates they would welcome a dollar collapse, equity collapse, whatever...... there are no stackers that jump in and argue against (it must be against the stacker rules or something). So this makes it appear that the stackers are a sheep like community that all have the same thoughts and beliefs. So it is simple, if stackers would like to be treated like individuals, they should start acting them. Out of the thousands of inaccurate stacker posts, predictions that were incorrect, poor understanding of economics, etc.... I can not find a single case where one stacker put another stacker in their place and told them they were wrong. Just a bunch of high fives and likes. Are you seeing the problem??????
I've seen the problem, but it's not the one you see, with stackers. Most of them want to blame the fed and money. While that is a very large part of it, most of it is who controls the fed, money and by and large the entire system. What was once a representative republic is now a who can pay for it republic. Since they paid the most they can do what they want to fill their coffers more full then ever. You don't need to look to far at who or what entities it is, most reside on Wall St.
Well, let's start off with what I agree with here. This is a "pay for it" republic, and I don't like it either. It may be worse today, but in fairness, that has always existed. It is just how life works. The quote, "He who has the Gold, makes the rules" comes to mind. Always has been, and always will be true. I also agree that "Big Buisness" is always trying to gain an edge by "donating" money to anyone that may be able to help them out. Now with that said, when I look at the FED, I honestly don't feel they were bought and paid for. The reason is simple. If I were in their position, I probably would have done the exact same thing. In addition the results were very real and positive. While some folks do feel, it would have better to just let it crash and EVENTUALLY rebuild, I do not, and the majority of Americans do feel the same as I do. So in this case, I think the decsions WERE in line with the general public. I think most Americans would rather have things better now, and acknowledge there is some risk, then just let it all go down the tubes So, my question would be, what exactly do the stackers blame the FED for???? I mean people can say, it is not substainable, it is all propped up, or whatever, but none of that is proven. Time can only tell. The facts right now are, people are better off, many more have jobs, they are buying more goods and enjoying life more. Please note, that I did not say, things are great, they are not, I am only saying better, and that is undeniable. So are the stackers mad that things are better, I don't think so. From the tones of the post, talking with then directly, (BTW, there is a whole contingency of stackers were I work, and believe it of not, they don't hate me.) my conclusion is they are mad becasue if the FED let it collapse they feel they would be sitting pretty with their stack. Folks have told me that directly to my face. That is what makes the most sense. It is not just Big Buisness that has a monopoly with Greed, many stackers (and others) have the same affliction. Anyway, that is the way I see it.
Wish I could have said it that well Mike . I believe most Americans want what's best for this country not only for themselves but for their children and grandchildren .
