How much GOLD is enough, to provide security for your family ?

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TC, HELOC loans are NOTHING compared to pre-2008. Maybe 1/5th the total outstanding.

Short-term bonds provide yield AND are a source of cash if you see any "opportunities."

The economy remains strong, and monetary policy acts with a lag, hence the strong NFP numbers, steady inflation, etc.

 

The US economy is heading towards stagflation at a rapid rate. Getting into stocks and bonds now is complete suicide. That ship has sailed and we all made a ton of money. Retail investors entering the market now will be slaughtered and take the fall as they always do.

Best investments for stagflation are
1) Get out of debt as fast as you can
2) Real Estate
3) Precious metals

 

That's a pretty ballsy prediction, ETR. It COULD happen -- but I doubt it, even among bears.

Stocks are not dirt-cheap but they are no expensive, with the exception of the FAANGs and a few mega-cap tech stocks.

 

Not on anything 2 years and in. If they rose in yield/fell in price, equities would get hit anyway. You'd still own the Best House in a Lousy Neighborhood (well, 2nd Best House next to MMFs !! )

We just had a huge negative economic hit 3 years ago. It's unlikely we get anything like anytime soon.

S&P 3,200 is the target, you buy on the way down.

 

Gold and silver have been valued for thousands of years, ancient China, Egypt, Babylon, Persia, Greek, Roman, etc. to today. Look at the history, all the empires, wars, conquests, they all coveted looted the gold, silver. Soldiers were paid in silver. The gold in Jews teeth was pulled from their bodies in the concentration camps WWII. If SHTF, gold and silver will still be valued and used as barter IMO. The central banks have been buying record amounts of gold recently. India has imported record amounts of silver. Some dealers have reported record or near record sales of gold, silver. I'm not aware of any evidence suggesting societies are becoming less interested in gold, silver. Obviously if SHTF it's better to have food, water, ammo, but gold/silver will have value and be traded unless we're all reduced to being zombies only caring about water and eating human flesh.

I've had good returns on my stock mutual funds for over 25 years. Sure there's bear markets, but stocks have always rebounded, at least so far. I think it's wise to have a mix of stocks, bonds, precious metals, no high interest credit card debt, pay off the mortgage, some emergency cash, at least that's what I do. If stock markets drop to zero and never recover we're all in survival mode.

 

There's approving of an investment because you sell it, and there's selling it because you approve of it. It's perfectly okay to do both, but periodic disclaimers are welcome.

I've always been an advocate of GMOs to address world hunger, but I found myself tempering my remarks during the time I was actually working for a company that was in that line of business. "Of course you won't bite the hand that feeds you" is always an easy accusation to make.

But I guess I should ask you the same question I ask rhetorically in other discussions like this: if you believe fiat will inevitably go to zero, how can you stand to accept it in exchange for things that hold REAL value?

 

That's why I mostly stopped asking the rhetorical question. When you can make a profit on a completed round-trip transaction, the only sensible course of action is to keep round-tripping until you can't do it any more. Doesn't really matter if you think of it as "spend cash on gold, sell gold for cash, end up with more cash" or "sell gold for cash, spend cash on gold, end up with more gold".

 

Because this is the foundation of our entire modern capitalist system/culture/lifestyle.

I believe that none of us that genuinely understand our system want it to fundamentally change or shift out from under us. This is a system that works the best for us and I'm happy to let it change dramatically once I no longer need it (aka am dead).

 

Then I don’t know if you genuinely understand our current system.

As long as we stay the best of the group we’re ok.

 

It's a feature of the system, not a bug.

 

Agreed.

I shall move on...teh GoLd iS GooDER!

 

....and 6-month, 1-1-year, and 2-year Treasuries all yielding close to over a bit over 5% aren't a bad place to hide out, either.

Hell, even my Fidelity money market fund is at 4.25% now and should be 4.5% within a few weeks.

 

Absolutely and the recession gets closer and closer every day, hopefully everyone here is ready for it!