When will Silver be Cheap again?

These issues always move in cycles. It's just timing that counts. It should soon be a great time to invest in tulip bulbs again

 

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Maybe. Or this might be like 1983, when those "loading up" after silver's precipitate drop found that they needed to wait some 25 years for their opportunity to "sell high", after watching silver stagnate at $5/oz throughout the 1990s. And by the time that climb in nominal dollars came, they'd lost more ground against actual yield-producing investments than they could ever recoup.

I'm buying some silver now. But I realize that I might not see significant appreciation for a very long time.

 

Hard to tell. It went down two bucks and back up 2 bucks the night before last, so that means volatility is up. We seem to be hanging between 14.50-17.50 lately, but we'll see. It wants to break out one way or the other. I am betting it will be to the upside, but I could be wrong.

 

The thing is is not too long ago it was 2.98 an ounce.

If it is going to drop to that price (and following trends like you say then it should). I would rather buy it for 2.98. I know that will not happen anytime soon but I am patient and can wait. It is just hard for me to justify the current price. I remember being shocked when it was 6 an ounce and then 10 an ounce. I couldn't justify that either.

 

Exactly how low did it get 2 days ago?

 

I wish silver would stop going up :/. Sold all mine at 33/oz and would love to start buying again, was getting excited when it hit 14.50. Hopefully after the new years it will get down to 10

 

I don't know, but I just bought some at 14x face. I hope it goes up again.

 

Haha! Posted 1/12/2012.

Well here it is mere hours away from 1/01/2015. Just paid $1.98 for gas and silver is around $15. Its a crazy world.

I got rid of about 20 oz near the peak in 2011. Should've dumped everything but hindsight is always 20/20. I've been buying a little but fearful it will keep dropping!

 

Interesting flashback/bump. Lots of 2012 silver investors insistent Silver's low would be $20. - 36.
How wrong they were.

 

Don't worry. The price is what the price is. When you need it, it will be there.

 

I was just about to ask when will silver move above $40 an ounce again. I feel that silver is very cheap right now. This may not be the case in a few years.

 

Well, gas is $2.00, where's my cheap silver?

 

Look into investing in copper. It could outperform silver and gold. I'm setting aside at least 5% of my savings in copper because of this book. I'm confident it's a good investment.

 

Not too long? Its been over 40 years since it traded for 2.98 an ounce or less.

 

From a technical perspective, silver is way overdue for a rebound. The only thing I can think of to explain why it hasn't happened yet is the impact of the disappearance of the photo film market, which required tons of silver every year. Hence demand for silver has been much weaker than it was decades ago. Think about it. That silver used to make film didn't get recycled it just vanished from the market. That would explain depressed silver prices.

 

That is true about the film market, but industrial demand has picked up in the last 5-10 years due to silvers use in electronics, solar panels and other things.....

Silver market clearly is manipulated by the paper players given the huge swings that happen. So I think the price tends to go way higher than it should and way lower than it should due to the huge amount of paper trading that goes on. For example silver went from $8.xx to $49.xx in about a 3 year span from 2008-2011, that is insane! The drop we've had now is also insane going from $49.xx to as low as $14.xx so far in around 3 years as well.

 

Hum? That's very interesting. I'm going to have to look into it. Thanks for the solid input on that question.

 

Looks like silver is now around $16, so I'd wager the boom/bust cycle is truth, but depends on use in technologies. Now that tech uses silver, I doubt it'll ever go much below $10 again without major usages changes.

Natalie

 

You just never know about technology. It's a wild card.

 

Thankfully silver is more a monetary metal than an industrial metal. That's why when gold goes one way and copper goes the other, silver always follows gold. Any boon from industrial demand is icing on the cake.

Let's consider the big picture. Silver took 10 years to rise from $4/oz to $50/oz. In the last 3-4 years it's dropped back to $16/oz. This is still 4 times more valuable than when it started. Stocks haven't returned gains anywhere close to that in that same cherry picked timespan. It's when the bull market started afterall, and makes the most sense. Stocks and bonds are at all time highs yet metals, even at their now slashed prices, have been nearly twice as profitable over the duration of this bull market, and stocks haven't even had a corresponding correction yet on this leg of the race. So there's no question that the trend is still your friend in spite of how far the price has fallen.

When taken in context, metals had to get hammered, and stocks+bonds had to get pumped up with Fed money just to get half the gains that metals got. In spite of metals' superior rise over this span, traditional investments appear overbought, and metals appear oversold. While this could be a sign that metals are actually overbought, that isn't likely considering that silver is still below the cost of production. The more likely explanation is that metals were extremely oversold to begin with, which is lent further creedence by the fact that they are competition for fiat currency which is the mechanism by which money is created out of nothing for the purpose of empire expansion. It was this immoral free money creation that first sparked my interest in metals, and silver in particular, as being a hedge against the hidden tax of inflation, and notably vastly undervalued compared to historical norms.

Cycles take way longer than 4 years. They are more like 30 or 40 years. The longterm trend is still very positive, prices seem to be building a base, and we could very well not even be halfway through this bull market. This doesn't mean the price won't go lower, but to me it is very cheap and an investment I am extremely comfortable with at today's prices. I'm not expecting an immediate rebound either though. The price discovery mechanism is broken due to leveraged contracts being traded on margin with money that doesn't actually exist. Until the physical market calls the paper market's bluff, silver is so cheap and in such short supply that it can be moved far more easily than gold. An entire year's worth of silver mined could be purchased for less than $30 billion, and there's less than half of that on the open market, and of that it's mostly fractionally leveraged contracts without the underlying metal to back it up. The lower the price goes, the easier it is to push it down.