Never try to catch a falling knife...

...that is all.

 

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True. Now is a pretty insane time to be speculating in precious metals. However, if someone wanted to establish a base holding - or buy annual bullion purchases - now is a pretty nice time to buy on sale.

peace,

rono

 

Wish someone would have told me that last week.

 

Well, I suppose it depends on if the knife is falling with the blade pointing down or pointing up, no?
I see it as a 33% chance it goes down more, 33% chance it goes up, 33% chance it stays about the same and 1% chance zombie apocalypse* and none of it matters.
The alternative of leaving your money as is comes with a 100% chance it will slowly lose value due to inflation. I'll take the former odds over the latter any day.

*just being cheeky, I don't believe in zombies

 

But, the value of your PM is measured in USD, so why consider inflation/deflation separately? If the USD gets stronger, your PM goes down in value, if it gets weaker, PM goes up. All other things held level as we are only discussing these 2 related items, PM and USD. This is the thing I have mentioned before, everyone wants a strong dollar and high bullion prices, but they, by themselves, are inversely proportional. One of the current National Geographic has an article on real "ZOMBIES" in nature. Parasites that can connect to the brain of certain animal species and control their body. Humans? maybe someday.

 

Ah the Cordyceps fungus, I read about it.... crazy stuff.

But regarding USD and PM, as you mention... when the dollar gets stronger PM prices go down and when it gets weaker PM prices go up. This is EXACTLY why PM make a good hedge. It holds it's relative inflation/deflation adjusted value, whereas plain cash slowly deflates over time.

 

I think we're almost at the point where for me, drastic action is required...

I'll implement this plan when gold hits $1000 and silver $12.

 

If gold goes below $1000 it will be time to start looking at those St Gaudens and Indians. It would be even nicer to see $700-800.

 

That's what they say about stock prices also (catching the falling knife). And, also, "the trend is your friend". I still think stocks are much more maneuverable without the crazy premiums and storage costs for investment purposes. PM to me is for other reasons.

 

I hear that many times, but it only applies if one never has to sell the PM, like when a person has shares of a stock that claims he hasn't lost money until he sells it.
Say one buys 1000 oz of silver @ 15.00 today and HAS to sell it 5 years from now for his medical needs and the USD has lost 20% of it's value, so silverholder figures his silver is worth 20% more and goes to the shop he bought it from and says "Here is the silver give me $18000 for it", will the dealer accept it as spoken? Or maybe say, silver is in surplus this year, and spot is only $13.00 an ounce. We all know what will be the last offer. Silver is bought and sold at a spot paper USD bid/offer and that is when the actual relative value is determined.

 

That is my aim, barring any unexpected emergencies as you mention, to hold it rather than sell it. I started buying up silver when I was 16 and it was around $5 per ounce and sold it when it was in the mid $30's. I got lucky. Now that I'm older and [hopefully] smarter, i intend to buy it and hold it regardless if it goes up or down. My money in the bank will deflate in value faster than the abysmally low 0.2% interest my bank gives me. I would rather take the chance on silver.

 

As far as maintaining purchasing power, gold has historically been better than silver. That stated, silver does offer more volatility and with that comes a larger upside if the opportunity is taken advantage of. I believe paying attention to the GSR as a good indicator or which to purchase. With that in mind, silver is the play of now. If the GSR goes down into the 50's, I'm very likely to sell silver and buy gold.

 

let her bottom out and start back up- then jump in.. this downward movement might just be getting started and there is a lot of potential downside. You could easily lose half of your money in a market like this.

 

Frankly, I don't see how anyone could lose money, unless they either try to flip too quick or they panic (the most likely of the two it seems with most bullion "investors"). Bullion is long-term. Those that think otherwise, will, indeed lose money.

 

In my mind silver is a five dollar metal. If it returns to the mean (-$7) you will lose half of your money. This decade long run up may have been a fluke.
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

 

We're heading that way... unless major uncertainty returns to the economy.

 

I can see that happening, which is why I said it's a long-term hold. It's been at 5 and back up to 20 and down again more times than I can count.

 

I'm convinced that we haven't seen bottom yet. In my view therefore, buying blobs (common, non-denominated bullion bars or rounds) right now may not be the best use of my cash if I am looking to get the most oz for my dollar. So far, premiums on physical silver are still quite low. This tells me there's no shortage of supply. The US Mint, within 2 days, is ready to ship at perhaps millions more American Silver Eagles (ASE's). That said, of course it's possible that at some point as the silver spot price drops even below $15 USD to the $14 range, premiums can go higher.

We shall see.

 

I just keep buying little lots of junk silver, cool stuff I find and don't worry about it too much. I am not trying to find the bottom, just picking up some bargains on the way down, and the way up. I'll keep buying until it gets too pricey. That means when it gets over $20 again.

 

Hey Revi,

I think I've been talking with end-of-times silver stackers a little too much lately and so I am thinking in terms of buying large quantities of silver. Most end-of-times stackers appear to believe that no matter what price silver is, you forget about everything else and just back up your truck today because silver is going to da moon tomorrow since the tomorrow will also be when the global currency collapse takes place.

So I actually am like you in terms of small good deals to be had...little bit on the way down and on the way up.