Silver: Another Significant Drop Coming?

I wouldn't mind sub $15 silver. Still in the stacking phase. I'm unsure where the cost of production lies in metals, but from what I've read it sounds like we're there, or very close. I'd be bummed out if silver shot back to 30 and I didn't have my stack built to where I wanted it to be as part of my overall portfolio.

Like I've mentioned earlier, I get a little sick when I write another check at an even lower place and dwell on my twenty and thirty dollar purchases. But that all goes away when I see the pertty shiny tube of inert matter show up at my door.

 

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Howdy good people,

Ever time folks go bullish on gold and silver, they tend to overstate both the extent of the pullback AND the duration. While not sure exactly why this is the case, but I suspect it has to do with the preppers, and other facets of the demand side that tend not to follow the central bank bullion market.

Right now it's a little of ISIS and a bloody LOT Of ebola that are causing the preppers to go nuts. They were interviewing someone from the hazmat suit industry and he said that it's panic buying for civilians all across the country. If they're loading up on hazmat suits, you can figure they're also counting their hand's on bullion.

Call if the ebola bottom if you wish, but that's sure what it feels like.

and so it goes,

peace,

rono

 

I have no idea what silver is going to do and neither does anyone else. I think $14 is the bottom, but that's nothing but my gut. That's why metals are fun. I hope I'm wrong and it goes to $3 for two full years so I can fill a closet with it.

 

This is a buying opportunity...

 

I would've expected gold and silver to move up as a flight to safety since bonds are iffy at best right now.

 

Everything is iffy and icky right now. I put my retirement money into sivr last month and it's holding, but for how long? It looks like a big collapse is underway, of stocks, oil, commodities and maybe everything. They took away the punchbowl of QE too early, and now the patient has taken a turn for the worse. There are worse things to have than silver.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...nomy-so-damaged-it-may-need-permanent-QE.html

 

you put all your retirement money in silver? How many years til you retire?
Wow! Gutsy move.

 

It's crazy to think everyone would pile into bonds when it seems the lifeblood of paying the interest on those bonds is in question with a faltering economy, but that's exactly what happened in the 2008 crash and is happening today. There has been a stampede into bonds in the last 30 days as big money is bailing on equities.
Here's a snapshop of the yield on the 10 year over the last 30 days.


I also think bonds are iffy as hell right now, but the big money is still piling into them. There just can't be much upside left anymore. When the air comes back outta the bond bubble, it's gonna hurt those who get out last.

Look even deeper at the last five days and the pin action in bonds is very telling of the state of nerves in the bond market. A 45 basis point move in five days?

 

Is this more proof that people that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it? I believe it is, and right now many of them are wiping sweat off their brow for the 28 basis point "recovery"...I also can't really blame them from taking funds out of the equity market. Whatever, it's not really my game...

It could also be that stocks are just having a normal correction and the money needs to go somewhere...

 

They are all piling into bonds because they think they are safe.

 

No, I just put about 4 months worth of my retirement into SIVR, but I have it in all sorts of things. Who knows? I certainly didn't want to put it in the regular market, and the safest thing I know is silver. I could be wrong, but it's done now.

 

short term bonds are fine, in a pinch intermediate term, but def. no long term, as certainly interest rates are headed north.

I'm probably around 50% equities, 45% short/intermediate bonds (both domestic and international bonds/equities). I'm on my glide path to retirement so I've turned conservative. This correction I'm only down mayb 3%.

 

Don't worry too much about any present market. The only time it counts is when you are actually selling. And if it isn't a major sell off, it will be averaged out when it is. The rest is all talk with very little action.

 

It's all a crapshoot anyway. The only ones who really know are the insiders, and they sometimes even get into trouble. I had a friend whose father was a trader on Wall Street, and he told me that there are bulls, bears and there are pigs. The pigs always get slaughtered. Us regular investors are the pigs, and we know what's coming...

 

That's why I gave up on making big moves at one time. I focus on asset allocation. Once you've got a base of different assets built out, you can simply trade them for one another. In metals of course it requires bigger swings due to markup and shipping cost.

I can pick good stocks, I just can't tell you when its a good time to buy. But, if I have $1000 in ten stocks, and I've got one that shoots to $1200 and one that falls to $800, I can shave one and buy the other and get the back to $1000. Volatility is a certainty, and balance is a necessity.