Silver Will Not Top $20 Again Homies

I think it's because everyone is piling into the dollar, since it's the best horse in the glue factory. They don't trust any other assets, and even don't trust silver and gold, which is strange. Eventually they will want PMs.

 

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What if world instability is what's
driving up the USD?

 

A hardcore war in Europe or pacific
might send the USD to freaking Pluto.

 

Howdy,

Folks have been talking about the death of the dollar for years - both as a fiat currency AND an international medium of exchange. I've been saying for years, it's the least dirty shirt in the laundry and I still feel that way. That said, it really doesn't matter. If people believe a lie and act as if it IS true - it might as well be true - at least from the way we view and react to it.

In this case, whether or not the dollar (i.e. the U.S. treasury and gov't) is sound doesn't really matter if enough people treat it as if it is sound and act accordingly.

We've still got this enormous debt of unfunded liabilities that they have to deal with. The total of promises was over $100 T - social security, medicare/aid, various trust funds, state and local promises, etc. Oh, and how are we paying for this latest war? Indeed, it is not politically feasible to break all the promises OR raise sufficient taxes in order to cover this tab. Ergo, they have to debase the dollar by around 50% (from 96% debased since 1913 to 94%) and they're about half way there. So far without having inflation go nuts or everything imploding. Inflation has been helped by global competition via the internet AND 20% real unemployment eliminated any wage pressure and the formula they use to calculate the CPI.

Anyway, we're about halfway thru this little gambit and so far they've been pulling it off, albeit with no help from Washington or the middle east.

So, as bullion investors, we have to handicap their chances of success - or better yet - of failure. Being rational, we have to assign some probability to the chances of financial meltdown. The doomsday scenario is possible - even if only 5-10%. You're welcome to assign your own number.

The issue then becomes how to insulate ourselves to a degree that covers a 5-10% chance of dollar collapse.

Many of us feel that having some bullion on hand is a good insulator. My grandkids have bed buddies. My wee stash of pm's is my bed buddy.

and so it goes,

peace,

rono

 

The USD is the grandest Ballet of the Chestnuts ever. But it will still end, just as the old Vatican's power grip on Europe ended.

But probably not today.

 

Definitely not today. We're headed to $17! Ouch!

 

$16.98@3:28pm according to Kitco. I guess Zombuck fans will save a couple bucks soon. Ordering for the Feast Dollar should start pretty soon?

 

I just went for the equivalent of 78 ounces, so I hope we're near the bottom. We'll see. I was heartened by this article by Clive Maund:
http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/silver-market-update-13639

 

Debasing the dollar by 50% (100% inflation) would create much greater problems than carrying a large national debt. The national debt is currently a liability of the government, secured against that entity's ability to levy taxes and existing assets (gold, oil reserves, real estate). By debasing the dollar to pay it off, we'd be transferring the liability to the citizens. A 50% debasement is tantamount to hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is not a good solution to resolve the national debt, since it would force US banks to raise interest rates and likely lead to debt defaults and closure of said banks.

A different solution (though somewhat of a "Pandora's box") would be for the US government to sell some of its existing real assets, which include lands currently protected under national parks.

The reality is that, regardless of how the national debt is earmarked, we carry the debt to protect our banking system and environmental future. If the debt ever got to a position where it was completely unmanageable, the logical solution would be to cut programs, sell assets or raise taxes. It would never make sense to debase currency by 50% to avoid default on the national debt, as it would simply shift the default from the public sector to the private sector.

 

The ECB is doing some quantitative easing, so that might kick commodities into gear. We'll see. Everybody will be into pumping more stimulus into the market soon, and then we may see some movement. We'll see...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/deflation-precursor-weimar-inflation

 

I'm sure the ECB will follow in the steps of the the fed and have Carl
Ichan select the best "assets" and
prices.

 

Just purchased 689,764,575 silver ounces. That should raise the price a bit.

 

You just purchased twice the daily float on SLV and the price still went down... I'm guessing you didn't really purchase what you claim you did.

 

I don't even know why I posted that, sorry.

 

Funny thing is now is not the time to sell, it means you bought high and are now selling low if you continue to do so I am not sure how you will ever have anything saved. That's like a dog chasing its tail. Now is the time to buy and hold onto whatever you bought before. Maybe it dips lower maybe it goes down to $10 an ounce but eventually it will go back up to $20-25 and you will recoup your money.

If your thinking stacking is going to make you rich your looking at the wrong market entirely. I'll give you two 10 year examples. If you were to buy silver at its all time low of around $3 an ounce and then sold it at its 10 year high of $48 you could have made 16x your investment in about a decade. So a 1k investment would have made you 16k. A different example is priceline.com stock had you invested in it around the year 2000 a 1k investment would have made you $560,000 at its 10 year high (I think right now you could still cash out for around $370k). I mean you could do better at real estate, the stock market plenty of other investments over silver.

If I had a time machine I wouldn't be going back and buying silver or gold at their record lows as there is a lot better returns for investments out there. Silver is fun and always retains some value so its a good hedge against inflation and part of an investment portfolio but it should be just a part of your portfolio and a small part. And if you enjoy collecting coins what an added bonus

 

If I had a time machine I would go back and tell my earlier self to not buy Enron stock.

 

woulda been ok to buy the enron stock but with a crystal ball you could sell at it's high!

 

True enough.

 

Ultimately, the strength of one's currency is directly proportional to the strength of one's military.

 

Japan has no military and their currency is considered a reserve currency, isn't it?