Where is silver going?

Yes, the taper is priced in, why wouldn't it be, the QE taper was certain. As for the PM spike, don't read too much into it, there was a buttload of money taken off the table last week, some of it is just finding a home in the relatively smaller PM maket. As equities firm over the the next 3 or 4 weeks, PM will most likely drift a bit lower.

 

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I don't think you'll find many people that will argue it has increased as a percentage also. However, it's not so doom and gloom as many think just by looking at the debt number and not considering GDP. As mikem2000 also states, it may very well not increase due to upswing in economic cycle.

That doesn't mean it isn't a problem or that it can't escalate into a bigger problem. Anything can happen and it would be prudent to be prepared for the worst. All I'm saying is don't be entirely fooled by patterns or projections.

 

So we need to start making more babies. Today is Valentines Day, so perfect day to get started.

 

As the afternoon session was winding down, the NY spot bid was at $21.49 - a big (about 5%) one day move, for sure. We'll have to see what sentiment forms over the long weekend. Profit taking early next week would undermine reading anything too bullish into today's run-up.

 

Time will tell, time will tell.

 

I sure hope so. I am now accumulating gold. Got me a 20 franc Rooster, a 5 dollar Indian Head and a 2.50 dollar Indian Head. Oh yeah, and a nice 2 gram Austrian Mint gold piece thanks to the advice of members here regarding eBay's 10% discount. I would love gold to stay low.

 

I love Indian's, nice pickup's. Post some pics......

 

Please share the secret of how to do that, all I seem to be able to accumulate anymore is belly fat

 

Probably the big bankers running it up this week so they can dump a bunch and then buy more next week when it drops back to $18. LOL

 

Next? Time frame is important in this poll. I see the current PM rally due to Olympics. Why? People want their own gold/silver medals (metals). I see silver mostly in the $20-$24 range this year with movement above that range only with some significant economic/political/business event. IMO, chance of silver below $15 is very slim. Better chance for above $25 due to some unforeseen event. Long term (1-10+ years): Silver will get back above $30, so good time to buy while the world is relatively stable.

 

Weirdly enough the Olympics might actually be a reason for the high. Positive sentiment allowing for higher prices...
The recovery is just a paper exercise and I do believe the PM prices will drop soon again. Once the larger world economies goes into serious deflation/inflation all bets are off.

 

Just like nobody can really predict future PM prices; I can't tell what caused this recent uptick. Alot of it may be the propaganda out there about an improving economy.

 

No it's not, I should have made it clearer that it was just my opinion about what the future holds in regards to the National Debt. I was only displaying the chart as a means of showing the facts; the predictions should probably be ignored by any serious person as they are changing monthly.

Back on topic: Somebody earlier in the thread said the only way to tell if our debt was really growing was to compare it with GDP, I agree and posted the metrics showing just that. Here is the chart with only actual historical data, so make of it what you will.
I recommend you do your own investigating.

 

I was thinking a while back that Bitcoins might be holding down the price of gold and silver. Bitcoin took a dive this week and commodities went up. Anyone else think that the bitcoin dive is driving the PM spike?

 

I'm hard pressed to see how this could be so. Is anyone pricing their gold or silver in bitcoins and accepting same in payment, and even if somebody is, is the practice prevalent enough to move the market as the worth of the bitcoin fluctuates? Have any precious metal contracts been entered into specifying bitcoins as the currency to be exchanged? Does a bitcoin dip or spike even nudge any country's legal tender's valuation enough (or at all) so that there could be an indirect effect?

 

I'm the last person that would claim I understand how these things work. I didn't buy Bitcoins but one of the claims I remember was that it was a kind of safe haven for $. Since the price fell so quickly I just assumed people were selling off bitcoin and buying PMs with their $ to stay in another safe haven.

 

uhm, you could send it to me for safe keeping.

 

Regardless if the price of silver rises, falls or stays in its current trading range, I am enjoying buying nice beautiful large silver coins and sets at some bargain prices. Some prices I have paid are below melt, some above. It has balanced out.

What I am more concerned about are whether the prices of my stock mutual fund investments rise or fall. The more they rise, the quicker I can retire early and enjoy my hobbies full time.

 

I have a buy and sell trigger. Everything in between is just noise.

 

One thing to remember long term. PM should go up with inflation generally. It may not help short term, and of course is not the main reason for daily price changes. However, Topcat thought in 1-10 years it will be above 30. I sure hope so if its closer to 10 years out. Even assuming 5% inflation, (and I am as leery of government inflation statistics as anyone), each year it should be going up $1 or more just to keep pace with general inflation. If not, it must be coming out of miners margins, which cannot be sustained forever.

I know i am unusual here, but a way to look at pm is a zero coupon bond in many ways, with some useful side benefits if other markets get wonky. I am ok with that, I get to "play" with my pretty little zero coupons in the meantime. The main downside to pm is physical security and a gawdawful buy/sell spread from dealers in relation to any other investment.