Are we going to see sub $20 silver again this year?

It'll be deployed eventually. Release the increase now while you can say its just an excess reserve, so that when they actually release the money into the economy they don't have to publicize it.

 

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I thought your argument was that we have inflation here and now? If so, then this seems like you're moving the goalposts. At any rate, predicting that some day there will be inflation is like predicting that some day it will rain.

 

I'm in full agreement.

 

It just might not arrive in the time span or with the magnitude that you're expecting.

 

What am I expecting?

 

Well, lets hope so, if you don't like inflation, just wait until you meet her ugly half sister deflation, she is one mean lady.........

 

I love deflation, some of America's best years came during deflationary periods.

 

Compare M1's between Canada and USA
CANADA:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/
USA:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edi...r-fed-surprise

 

What years exactly are you talking about? Perhaps it was the years between 1930 and 1933, one of the most dramanic of the deflaionary periods with deflation at 10% per year. Most folks call that period the Great Depression where umemployment was at 25 % Yeah, fun time for all.

Perhaps you are talking about the years between 1815 an 1821, where deflation might have been even more severe than the Great Depression. That time period had all kinds of good times. Lets see, there were widespread forclosures, very high unemployment, bank failures, and a severe collapse in real estate prices. It was all topped off be the "Panic of 1819" Why don't you read about it. Those folks had a blast.

Maybe something more recent. Talk with the good folks of Hong Kong who had a long periond of delation from 1997 until 2003 or so. I think they called that one "The 1997 Asian Financial crisis" But hey, maybe "crisis" is just slang for "Big Party"

 

Silver price has stayed in a tight range this week, will be interesting to see which way it goes on the next big move.

 

Silver seems to be moving up slowly the past few days. Maybe we have hit another bottom, or it might tank again. Who knows? I think the uncertainty is what keeps it from taking off.

 

Just watching the flow over the last 2 weeks, for the most part that silver has stayed in between $21 and $22, thats a sign that it may jump up soon and that investors are waiting on more information.

The other side of the coin is that interest in silver has been down as of late and there is a real chance we see $19 silver again. I don't see it going below $19 but in the next couple of weeks if nothing big happens around the world to cause safe haven buying, Look for sub $20.

 

Interesting topic. I hope it does as many have said, I too have stopped buying as it rose to high for me. I watch it daily on Monex.com just to keep an eye on it. I am still kicking myself in the butt as in 2001-2002 it was so low compared to now, should have bought it up back then....lol

 

Thats my goal when doing these topics, to get people interested in debating and discussing their thoughts.

 

Sir, you have succeeded!

 

Or one could see it as a sign that the government shutdown scenario may continue ( notice no political comment made associating any reasons) and investors have accumulated what silver or gold they want and waiting to sell off if it/when it does pass.

 

I would suspect a second pass into $18 silver would not engender the types of premiums the first one did. At least historically people get "excited" at large market movements, and the exact same market price is not nearly as exciting or seen as "foolproof" as the first one was.

As always, the longer term trend is upwards, but I could see weakness if any "government shutdown" scenario passes, and we don't start bombing some other country for some reason.

I am still saying if I could buy a monster box for less than $10k I would have to think about it. My main concern would be storage more than worrying about the long term performance of such a purchase. I like silver a lot, but have started buying gold more simply because I do not have room for bulky silver in the SDB.

 

If someone would split a monster box for less than $5000 each, I would have to think also.

 

Patience For an MB to be at 10K, spot would need to $18 or so. Most would say the would be fairly valued silver. I am just not sure I want to pay fair price for Ag though. As you are well aware, markets ALMOST always seem to over correct. I am just not very interesteded in paying "fair" price for an asset that historically will only meet inflation (break even). If silver does overcorrect (odds are it will) we could easily see $13 silver and that would put an MB at around $7500, which in my opinion would be cheap silver and greatly increases the odds to beat inflation and BUILD weath instead of just hedging. If it does not overcorrect on this run, well there are probably better things to buy

 

I bet it hits 19 before the years over, then I will buy more!