I seem to recall a target of $18 silver for some to buy in

and I'm wondering if they did it last week or if they need silver to drop to $18.00 before they jump in?

The falling knife is a very scary thing to reach out and grab, so did anybody catch it? Will it drop to that magic $18.00 or below, where you're more comfortable clicking on the trade or buy icon?

 

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I'm going to start accumulating again once it drops below $18/Oz. Actually, I like uncirculated rolls of silver Roosevelt dimes, Washington quarters, and Franklin halves at a 25% premium over spot. When silver hits $18/Oz, that's $80/roll for dimes and $160 for quarters and halves. I think we'll get there and stay there for awhile.

 

I bought some american eagles last week when silver dropped in the $18-$19 range. If it drops a bit more, its not a big loss so I think its a good time to buy at that pricing

 

I bought a little junk world coins. Premiums still not representative yet. If prices stay around here, premiums should decline to normal.

 

Well, I did speak of a target around $18.00 but I did not "catch the falling knife" The speed in which $18.00 was reached put me in check. I would be more comfortable with prices stabilizing at the $18.00 level. I have always believed that rushing in to "get the deal" is not the best way to go. IMO there wil be more opportunities, but if I am wrong and I missed $18.00 silver forever, so be it.

For giggles though, to "get in the mood" so to say. I put an order in for 5 oz. All different, I think a panda, a kook, an eagle, a Britannia, and that silver bullet thing

 

I dropped the ball at $19 the other night, and I'll probably buy more if it hits $17. No one knows how low silver will go, or how long it will stay there. But, Many of us have a number in our head when we should buy. Our spouse's probably have a number on our heads if we buy too much though!

 

I took advantage of APMEX on Ebay...Mexican Libertads with a decent premium when silver was around 19-21 and free shipping...one of their only auctions with free shipping!

 

I picked up some more 2013 Koalas and a bag of 40% Kennedy Halves at 49cents over spot. Overall, I wasn't too inspired since I noticed premiums adjusted higher on most items. Prefer to wait and give spot price a chance to continue stair stepping lower. Hopefully vendors can get stock for lower spot prices and not need to gouge on premiums.

 

I got 2 of the OPM 10oz bars when it was $18.65. Paid right around $20 an oz for em with free shipping from provident

 

I know you all lover zero hedge, but JPM is now saying go overweight commodities....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...st-overweight-call-commodities-september-2010

Does this maybe take that 18 or below out of range or is this a head fake so they can drive to the hole and dunk on their clients?

and...as soon as I post this PMs drop a bit. haha @ me

 

They are talking commodities in general. it looks like for PM they are still not too keen

However, in acknowledgement that we are likely early in metals
Given the steep selloff in gold and the impaired condition of metals, we would prefer to see a turn in technical indicators before getting too aggressive in that sector, out of respect for the high likelihood of catching a falling knife. However, metals altogether have a low weight in the S&P GSCI (9.0%) and gold’s is especially negligible (2.35%), given current prices. So, downside path risks in metals are more an issue for the risk manager more exclusively focused on a specific metal, rather than on a larger commodity basket, either in the investor world or the corporate world.

 

What about this?

This conclusion represents a significant change in view. The last time we recommended moving to overweight was on September 30, 2010, or about a month ahead of the announcement of QE2 on November 3, 2010. In the nine months that followed (we turned neutral in June 2011), the S&P GSCI total return index produced a 16.5% total return against a 14.9% total return for global equities and a 2.5% total return for global bonds. At the same time, downside risks today are still scary, especially in metals. Owning 3M 25-delta puts on crude oil, copper, and gold is prudent. Conventional wisdom is clearly thinking in spot price terms; its blind spot is failure to evaluate risk through the lens of structure or volatility.

To recap, we recommend going overweight the commodities asset class through the strategic purchase of commodity index total return swaps. Recognizing that the consumers are likely already starting to act on their incentive to buy the 20%+ swoon in gold, copper, oil, and other commodity markets, we recommend immediate action. However, in acknowledgement that we are likely early in metals and possibly even oil, especially ahead of the more illiquid markets of the summer months, we also think it prudent to hedge net length by buying 25 delta puts on Aug-13, Oct-13, and Dec-13 NYM WTI and ICE Brent. That is a strike price of about $93, $89, and $87, respectively, for WTI and $100, $95, and $92, respectively, for Brent.
​

 

Yes, that is what I am saying. They are recommending the S&P GSCI total index (which I agree with) but they say the downside risk to metals is still scary. (which I also agree). The exposure to Gold is only 2.35% in the index so JPM feels that is negligible so over all give the green light for the index. They are recomending immediate action since consumers are starting to act on metals and other Commodities. They go on to say they acknowlegde they are likely to be a bit early for metals. Reading between the lines, It seems to me they are big on Oil right now. Metals not so much now, but in the future. That is my take on it though.

 

I just got a bit for 14x face value. I even got 8 Canadian quarters from 1901-1919, so they are 92.5% and have some numismatic value. I think I did okay, since the 2011 book valued some of them at $10 and more and I got them for $3.50 each quarter. The rest was Pre-64 US dimes at $1.40 each. I usually sell them for $4 and the shop takes 20%, so I'll double my money on them easily. (hopefully)

 

Where do you sell them for $4 if you don't mind me asking? Seems insane to me that people are paying almost 200% over spot for pre-65 dimes.

 

Here's a slightly upbeat vid about silver for you all out there in silverland!

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/02/ask-a-fool-whats-the-deal-with-silver.aspx

 

I think the video may be informative and correct in some aspects, but I wouldn't buy silver ETFs if my life depended on it. Call me old fashioned, but I don't trust them.

 

You may not trust them if that kind of investment is not right for you, or if you've never ventured in and held shares to see how they perform, but that's not the case for everyone else whose investment goals can be much different from your own. I'd also wager that ETFs are more liquid if the market starts to tank than is physical. A few clicks these days and you are free of the ETF, even if you end up taking a hit, while the physical is going to take some time to get to and find a buyer for, while time is being lost along with any gains you may have anticipated from the physical.

If one bought shares of an ETF like SLV less than 10 years ago, say back around 2006 and shortly thereafter, when it was pricing around $12 to $16/share right as PMs were starting to edge up ahead of the 2008 market crisis (even buying shares as late as 2009), then sold shares of the ETF around the $37-$46/share high in spring 2011, about the time PMs started getting wobbly, then one could have reinvested those gains from the ETF in a lot of physical silver as the spot price (some would say, inevitably) fell.

Physical spot is about $19.50 as of this post and SLV now trades around $18.6x. It may no longer be a great opportunity as it was in the past 6-7 years (nor may physical), so one has to redefine their investment outlook when considering such options. I'm just saying, that one can play the other, and neither is likely worth buying if your life depended on it. PM bugs in the media will promote both paper and physical as the price is falling apart and investor confidence flees to cash and other investments, because they are not going to like it when the end of the PM-craze rolls around and their headlines no longer turn heads.

 

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