August Price Ideas?

Of course that is the reason I post here, we air out differences of opinion. What do you think the purpose of the forum is? I never was on board with the concept of everyone just posting how great silver is and everyone patting each other on the back telling each other how smart the are and how stupid the people who buy stocks are. What can anyone learn from that?

I have told others in the past that if that is what they want, they should ask Peter, for a new area called
Silver Cheerleading. I promise I will stay away from there, nothing to learn

 

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ok- what is good now? what is the hot tip???

 

Or we could call what you're doing what it really is, trolling.

 

I was and am banking on the ASE W set, and the ATBs. I'm not looking for a huge return, but I should do well enough. After that, probably that gold buffalo, and then I don't have other ideas.

 

Interesting! I always thought it meant "an organism that can grow in the dark".

 

Way cool, I didn't understand, If I knew Silver could grow in the dark, I would be a stacker too. I just thought it sat there like a lump without paying interest or a dividend. Who knew ???

 

No, that is the definition of me, a funguy!

Ok, everyone can groan now.

 

You must be a hoot and a holler at all those fancy parties you "WallStreeters" go to :devil:

 

On a podcast i listen to one guy who comes on the podcast every week says the year should close at around $30

 

Does he talk about his logic for 30 buck Silver?. A 40% rise in 6 months is quite the bold prediction.

 

I do believe he does,,It is one of the last 2 podcasts "follow the money weekley with Jerry Robinson"...The investor who comes in is Tom Cloud,,It is a long podcast 1hr each,,but lots of great info,,investing/retirement planning /economy ect,,,,,

 

Follow the money weekley episode ,,,"Is this the calm before the storm" ..Tom is in the business 37 years by the way,,amyway in that podcast his discussion starts at 12:34 gold and silver is discussed

 

Okay, there's been a great deal of water under the bridge since this comment, but I'm late to the thread, and this really struck me.

Are you really proposing to make investment decisions based on extrapolation from three swings? Especially when you have to fudge the numbers pretty vigorously ("ignoring 2006", stretching 2012 to "2011 through 2013") to reach even that far?

To me, this really looks like numerology or astrology. Those, too, are well-established ways to attach meanings to historical patterns. They're just spectacularly lousy at predicting the future.

Then again, I feel the same way about technical analysis, and a lot of people put very serious money behind that. Enough, in fact, to make it an occasionally self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

Next stop...$105/Oz :hail:

The economy would have to really take a Dumpster Dive for that to happen!

 

Its called backfiting a model in Finance. Its used all of the time to make "market predictions" to suckers. Its also the bane of a Finance professor's existence. I would markedly warn my students if I judged their models to be backfitted they would fail.

The problem with backfitting, (basically taking number history with no other cause inputs), to predict the future is the numbers are the RESULTS of a million inputs, not the CAUSES. This is my problem with most technical trading, they act as if the numbers are creating the other numbers. Maybe they do short term, (myriad of reasons), but long term analysis has to be performed on the real CAUSES of market changes, not the scorecard of the results.

If the Yankees and Mets had a three game series, do you think the scores of the first two games will predict exactly what the score of the third game will be? Don't you think you want to know who's pitching, if there are changes to the lineup, etc? How about the history of Yankees and Mets from the last three years? How much predictive value do those scores have to a game played tomorrow?

I can make a model, (I actually did it), incorporating precipitation in Iowa to help "predict" the average wholesale price of green tea in Beijing. It was a tongue in cheek, literal "What does that have to do with the price of tea in China" demonstration. Point is, ANY PRICE can be "correlated" with something else, or itself, to "predict" something. Is it of any use? Not really, but you will see tons of "leading industry experts" flouting their "proprietary models".

Just a general warning. Not trying to pick on anyone in particular.

 

Spot on......... A dangerous thing....

 

Damnnnnnm I didn't think this thread would grow so much.
i just wanted silver to stay at low 20's till August! Lol

 

Looks like you got your wish, plus a bonus

 

I'm not 100% sure, but I think it's still June...

 

That's why I said "looks like" which it does, If it was August, I would said, You DID get your wish. Don't sweat it though, English is a tough language :smile