How Low Will Silver Go?

I see where they will let me put eight (8) into my cart, but I don't understand why shipping is "delayed". If you click on the "?" after "Availability: Item Delayed", you get this explanation...

I rather doubt they're waiting on delivery from the "Mint of the Soviet Union".

 

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The bars are even cheaper, but I would rather have the coin...if it's in nice shape.

http://www.providentmetals.com/precious-metals-ira/palladium-in-ira/palladium-bars.html

 

Delayed means they just don't have the item in hand yet I believe.

Probably a private seller has already sold them the coins and they are en route.

I wouldn't worry about it though, if you order them, you'll get them, may just take awhile.

 

I have tended to view silver as a monetary metal, not so much because it is used in daily transactions like paper cash and in rare cases gold, but because it tends to orbit the price of gold, in a way similar to how the Moon orbits the Earth. Also, if a gold standard ever is reinstated, or something similar to a gold standard, silver will likely take off. However, for the time being it looks like the dollar has avoided a serious drubbing, and, given the lack of competition to it in the world today, it is likely to retain its reserve currency status longer than some doom-and-gloomers believe. That being the case, dollars rather than ounces would have to be a point of reference for an investor. Still, one good thing about using ounces as a point of reference is that it can be psychologically motivating to stack more and more ounces, and thus can help some investors increase their net worth, though that model may not be optimal.

I will have to look at cost of production more carefully. One important detail to look at, I think, is how the miners will fare with silver's price drop, in terms of their profitability and output. If suddenly a bunch of miners go out of business, or their profits plunge significantly, then that would be a clue that the cost of production may be in the higher range of estimates. It can be difficult sorting facts from empty claims tho. Like I pointed out, the range of estimates is so wide. One challenge to derive an accurate number, I suspect, is that silver is mined largely as a byproduct. So production may be affected primarily by the drop in other commodity prices such as copper.

 

Actually, it's not...just stop listening to the empty claims. The empty claims are the ones not supported by market fundamentals.

 

Don't get me wrong as I do spend time following the markets but mining this much information would just overload my little brain and make me incapable of making any decision at all.

 

I realize we are far off topic but in continuation of the previous conversation - this article is a day old.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...lides-fresh-record-low-withdrawals-accelerate

With a massive 6,208 (or 80% of the total in the entire Comex system) Customer Delivery issues outstanding against JPM so far in June alone, many have been wondering - how and when will the firm reconcile what is seemingly more demand for JPM vaulted gold than the firm has in its possession?



While we still don't have the answer, what we do know is that as of an hour ago when the Comex released its daily vault depository statistics, JPM has said goodbye to another 28.4% of all of its vaulted gold - the largest one day withdrawal since April 25, the result of the departure of 61.5% of its Eligible gold, or 218k troy oz, as hundreds of thousands of registered ounces in the bast few weeks have seen warrant detachment.

Which means that as of last night, total gold held by JPM has fallen to a new fresh all time low of just 550k ounces, down from 768K the day before, and total eligible gold of only 136,380 troy oz in inventory (just over 4 metric tonnes) - also a record low.



Whoever is "running the JPM vault" shows no sign of relenting. At this pace, the world's biggest gold vault located below 1 CMP, and just next to the Fed's own gold vault, will be empty in about 1.5-2 months.

 

Interesting. Has there been similar decreases in silver?

 

Self deprecation isn't encouraged in the Bullion Forum...:bangg:

 

I haven't heard that to be the case. I believe the reason that gold is being hit harder than silver is multi-fold. Institutional buyers are now demanding physical delivery according to Kyle Bass and Andrew Maguire. Some believe that China has been investing through proxy in the US metal markets and is now also demanding delivery. And ultimately there just isn't enough silver at these prices for these players to get on board. The silver inventory would be depleted long before they could spend all the money they have to spend, so gold is the metal getting their attention. Silver will need to have a much higher price before it will become viable for the big players.

 

22 dollars...

 

Looks like Gold broke below the $1372 support level...and may be heading lower.

 

Lol, I could have predicted that. I bought an ounce last weekend, so of course it will go down.

 

Looks like gold is heading down to its next major support level ($1330).

A strengthening economy requires less stimulus...good! That indicates that folks holding low rate bonds are gonna get clobbered if they hang on to their positions...so they're selling them off...pushing up rates (panic in the streets!).

Higher bond yields suck money from commodity and equity markets. However, at some point, rates level off as improving returns draw money back into equities. As stimulus continues to be removed from the market, you should see a regular oscillation as money flows between stocks and bonds; a good opportunity for intermediate term traders. PMs will stabilize...but at much lower levels.

:thumb:

 

did you pull that number out of your butt? it's barely above 1300.

 

Ouch, as of right this second silver just broke below $20 an ounce.

YTD silver loss: 34.4%. Brutal.

 

That's the number people have been throwing around And it was above $1330 yesterday.

 

I'm watching it also... So glad that I sold a bunch 2 weeks ago. Ideally, I'd like to buy some to replace what I sold. Any guesses on where this stops?

 

No guesses on my end. I would think long term it could not stay much below $15 or so due to mining costs, but even that is just speculation.

I am sure I should have listened to Mike before I bought that double eagle recently, but I like the coin so no biggie. Maybe I should start putting together a little money in order to start buying some more pm shortly. I wonder if premiums will again take some time to readjust.

Speaking of premiums, here is an article:

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=26957

It begrudgingly admits premiums and availability of ASE and AGE is back to normal. He is the author who led me to cancel my NN subscription. Even in this article, there is rife unsupported allegations. This is not his worst article, but I told KM I siimply refuse to support a publication that publishes articles based upon scare tactics.

 

This is an honest question because I did not follow precious metals at all back then: What were the mining costs when silver was in the single digits?