...and down she goes!

What are they offering to buy it back?

 

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I am undecided, but I was offered a bunch of half dollars for 16x face. I think I'll make a purchase and then wait until fall to buy more.

 

Like Jolumoga points out...as long as you're investing in quality numismatic silver, you shouldn't let market fluctuations dictate your purchases. You should focus more on the quality of the product.

 

This gives me a little confidence. I love articles like this.

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

I am only mildly numismatic. I like to buy numismatic coins at silver value if I can. That way I can't go wrong... I hope!

 

First off...you need to expect to pay at least a 25% premium for quality Unc 1950's silver rolls. They're getting harder to find so be ready to pull the trigger when the right product comes along.

Second...articles like the one you posted are fine as long as market fundamentals support the conclusions.

The facts are...FED easing is going to stay where it is through 2014 (ignore all the jawboning) and energy prices are falling. Any unwinding of the Yen/Dollar carry trade (far less than 1998) might push up interest rates slightly and cause US markets into a short term correction...but the bias is still positive and there's no fundamental reason to change that view...(no yet, anyway).

Net result...money continues to flow out of PMs and into better performing assets. Expect this trend to continue throughout the 2016 election cycle.

(I should charge money for this)

 

Yeah, good point. Sounds like your local shop is high man, at local shows around here its not going that high. I commend you for buying now, though. I keep wondering when i should jump back in.

 

That's good to know. I haven't done anything yet. Waiting to see what is going to happen. I need cash for some other projects, so maybe I'll just keep my powder dry for now.

 

Lets look at this post in a couple of years and see if that is indeed the case

 

...no worries.

 

I wouldn't be too optimistic in the long term and here's why. In 2000, the dot-com bubble blew up. In 2008, the real-estate bubble blew up. What they both have in common is over-leverage and low interest rates that enabled the bubbles. Today, the Fed lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy. So, arguably, the Fed has run out of tools to keep the economy afloat as more Baby Boomers retire and swell Medicare and Social Security obligations. However, it may take years for this system to crash. I think the doom-and-gloomers (myself included) are starting to come to terms with the fact that a hobbling system such as the one we have can stay functioning for longer than many expect. This isn't the 1950s and '60s anymore. So perhaps the militarism of the U.S. has something to do with the realization by the elites that extraordinary measures are needed to keep the American engine running.

 

There were a few posts last year that you promised to bookmark and revisit this year, how about if we do that first???

Yaks analysis is spot on. One of the better axiom's on Wall St. is don't fight the Fed. The money will follow the higher returns and it has to come from somewhere. That's just the way it works.

 

I couldn't tell you. I'm not a seller so I didn't ask.

 

Just a suggestion sir, but I would always ask especially when they are charging higher premiums. Its great information to have. If they are offering above average buy prices along with above average premiums, that is indicative of very strong physical demand. However, if they are offering normal buy prices with high premiums, they are simply trying to add to their margins, hoping suckers haven't heard the market has declined.

Just knowing higher than average premiums never tells you the whole story. I have seen both scenarios, usually its the second one being pulled.

 

I try to avoid premiums but I stopped in a few shops over the weekend just to gauge premiums. Many of the guys that were charging huge premiums are much lower now. I guess they got tired of "waiting for prices to come back". A local jewelry shop that was holding back maples and eagles that were purchased close to 30+ each said he is now willing to just take a loss to get rid of them. Another shop said he wont order any more stock because he thinks prices will continue to slowly fall, but also mentioned no one is bringing stuff in to sell, no silver or gold, and if they do they walk out with it. I saw him offer a guy $130 each for a few 1/10 gold coins and the patron said he wouldn't sell for less than $200. It is strange, no one is selling to dealers because prices are too low and dealers arent buying expecting prices to go lower. I think we will go lower over the next year or two and then much lower when interest rates jump up a bit.

 

What's that old saying -- "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"? :devil:

 

Hmm... this seems a bit contrary to your previous statements

I would like to humbly submit, that a "selective" thirst for knowledge is a very dangerous thing that can and will result in false conclusions. It is my opinion that the permabull community in general likes PM's so much, that they fall victim to this common humor behaviour, and have issues determinining things like true value. As investors, we need the big picture, all the info. If you or the permabull folks disagree, so be it, but I think it is worth thinking about.

 

Whatever happens happens. I just bought about $10 face in half dollars for $160, so I guess I am a "permabull". Actually I just thought it was a pretty good price. That's $8 each, which is just 12 cents over melt value. Call me crazy.

 

No one knows what's going to happen in the market, he might be right, he might be wrong.

That's the simple fact of it, investors who have made billions in the market still can get it wrong.

Everyone is making their predictions based on incomplete information.

 

I think you did very well, paid well below retail :thumb:

 

Thanks. That's my last big purchase for a while. It might seem like a good price in a little while, or it might seem like a bad one, but I've bought them now.