Dead cat bounce??

silver will be in a bear market for many years.

 

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So why did silver go down so drastically?? Someone burned all of bills in the reserve banks? Money printing has been high for years now, but PM prices doesn't depend on the number of USD, but the international strength of the USD.

The second part is true, but only if we compare the value of the dollar against a basket of world currency, which is how currency is exchanged. When The USD gains strength, the price of PM goes down. When it loses strength, PM goes up. Contrary to bullion sites claims, the strength of the US has risen against the baskets of foreign currency over the past couple of years.

 

if you go to kitko, it say the dollar went up in value, so yes, lots of money must have been destroyed.

 

Or kitco believes their own propaganda blogs.

 

or they're basing it off of ggoverment states? what ever the reason, im relieved that silver is going down. this means nno ecanomical collapse. orr this is the calm before the storm

 

Hold a small percentage of physical pm in your portfolio for the long term/worst case scenario. More people lose than gain, speculating on pm’s. It’s like a pyramid scheme, all the “investors” at the bottom of the pyramid lose.

 

From a technical standpoint, Monday's decline just blew through a key support level. The wild card is that in that process, many market participants may have been wiped out through margin calls. This makes silver futures contracts very iffy propositions in the short term, or in other words, yes, the "dead cat bounce" is probably what we saw today. However, the pundits still think hoarding physical silver at this point, provided you have the ability to hold onto it over the long haul, is a good play.

 

Well, I am going to have to say DCB. What we have is improving economic conditions, a strengthening dollar, low inflation with possible deflation, an equity market that is still undervalued that is gaining investor confidence.

If it is shiny, keep it away from me.........

 

you may want to add a slight premium and add a numismatic component to those silver holdings. Those who paid a few extra bucks for the 5oz Volcano puck are still above water

 

It seems unanimous: DCB

 

Absolutely. The inherent silver value of high grade U.S. coinage shouldn't be a significant consideration in whether you hang onto it or not.

 

I would tend to agree, but disagree with Mike. I want more shineys, but i am a pm junkie, especially silver. I am nearly giddy at the thought of being able to buy large lots of coins at reasnable prices again. Soon i am hoping. Heck, i am already putting together a shopping list in my head.

 

Searching google images for "Dead cat bounce" brings up some entertaining results.

 

Quit Bouncing my Dead Cat! He's tired of hitting the floor!

 

Geez, folks,

Have we been invaded by tourists?

Is this a Dead Cat Bounce [read: if you drop a dead cat from high enough, it might bounce, but it's still dead - refers to a sharp drop in a price of a stock or traded asset followed by a brief rise only to drop further.]

It could be but I really don't think so. The fundamenals have not change at all. In the past 90 days, inflation has stayed the same, the dollar has stayed the same, the economy and uncertainty have remained the same. Nothing changed - except Cyprus?!??!?!? Rubbish. The paper POG and POS are being driven by market forces and not by fundamentals.

Because the fundamentals have not changed I see the overall demand remaining about the same for most of the world. Central banks are still buying, industrial usage is still strong and growing, numismatic demand is still strong, survivalist demand is still strong. Where you are seeing weakness is the paper securities market technicals - the ETFs and institutional buyers and traders. feh.

Watch the physical market - both supply availability and premium. I bet you'll see some supplies get weak and premiums increase. This is symptomatic of a demand/supply situation where prices are controlled and artificial.

So, no, I do not see any great downside crash to either gold or silver. They might go down some more from here but nothing huge.

peace,

rono

 

you still cant find it near cost/ ask price..

 

Well, I do disagree with you, in the last three months, the dollar has gotten stronger, and US unemployment is lower. But for argument sake, lets take your assumption that nothing has changed. If nothing has changed, that means that things did not get worse. Since metals are thought of a safe haven in deteriorating economic conditions, the fact that nothing has changed would be enough for folks to say, maybe we are not heading for certain econimc disaster, so maybe it might be a good idea to unload some of this over valued asset. Now make no mistake about it, Silver was priced almost 40% higher than the cost of production, and that made it an expensive commodity. So why would someone want to hold an over valued "safe haven" commodity when as you say "Nothing has changed" ?

 

One last remark on my part. The chart for silver over the last several months is not encouraging if you're thinking a sudden recovery is possible. What I see are declines followed by successively lower peaks, to the degree now that you could say it's definitely trending to the downside. What happened Monday can be characterized as a severe break in that same direction, and as such is worrisome if you're in a long position that you can't sustain.

The thing I'd be watching for right now is if silver settles any given day below the newly reestablished support levels (the current one to watch is $23.20) - that would suggest another tumble is in order. On the other hand, and I emphasize this applies only to the short term prognosis, if silver finds a floor in the range within which it's banging around at the present time, it may well rebound, but temper your euphoria given the probablity that even then it shouldn't go all the way back up to the level where it was just a week ago.

 

It's almost dead even over the last 3 years, it is up 10-15% over the last two. Not too impressive really though, and if you look at the fundamentals well then you should really be cautious.