(Morgan Dollar) VAMs now close to bullion, hmmm!

Wow, the Morgan Varietal mkt sure has tanked!!! I noted a few historical datapoints (collector premiums) back in October, here:
http://www.cointalk.com/t216533-2/#post1562141

Looks cleaned to me, "1890 P Morgan Silver Dollar, Investment Coin, VAM (.94) Ships Free!" SOLD for $39.50 on 3/16/2013 ...... POS @ $28.91/ozt or $22.36 intrinsic, that's 1.77x Intrinsic. I see other examples (January - February) as high as $45. (obviously polished = cull) and as low as $37. ("F+"= ~cull) 1.85x Intrinsic >>> 1.56x Intrinsic.

Trend is clearly FALLING PREMIUM for these cull Morgan "varietals." As "varietals" they basically have LITTLE NUMISMATIC VALUE (+$2.50) at all. Same dates cleaned or culled sold $34.-37.(1.52 - 1.65x Intrinsic) Nevermind the BINsanity. Arguably the Gem BU 1890P ($82., May 2011) is now just ~$60. (3/15/2003: "1890 P GEM BU MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR ★UNCIRCULATED CHOICE MS MINT STATE US $1 COIN"), a ~ -27% decline. Meanwhile, NGC charts 1890 S$1 MS 60 $50.40 and unchanged for this period (the price ADVANCED rapidly from $38 in April-May 2011)

Question: Have MOST Morgan varietals lost ~-30% in the last two years? And likewise cratered - down from 35x Intrinsic!!! - since June 2007?
Does anyone think any numismatic premium value will return for VAMs, particularly? Or will they stay "bullion coins" from now on?

 

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Juan, the thing you have to remember is that most VAM's are fairly common and easy to find. But honestly, I think the attributions of so many "new finds" has gotten way out of hand. For example, I don't care for the inclusion of the scribbles. but that is just me. Unfortunately, it is appearing to make that whole segment of the market seem less and less important unless you are a VAMpire.

Chris

 

Thanks Chris and YES I AGREE.

From VAMworld
3/25/2013 "I will give you $90 for your 90-P VAM 1F" proves someone is still out there, trading very minor Morgan die flaws at a premium.

On eBay many MANY VAMs get 0 bids (BIN) and languish. I have no idea how many people bought into the VAM hype, tens of thousands of collectors or mere hundreds?

3/24/2013 1878-S DDO RIB VAM-6 sold for $47.80; arguably, arguably LESS than Same Date non-VAMs in similar condition.
In other words, the VAM was zero benefit/premium to the coin's value, or NO NUMISMATIC PREMIUM at all!

Could VAM designation actually hurt pricing, where buyer's fear a gimmick? Maybe. I suppose many(most?) VAMs were gimmicky and that market's 'been played now.'

 

There are still many people just getting interested in VAM's. I read about it regularly, and it is not on VAMWorld. Prices aren't just down on VAM's. It's the whole economy that is suffering. Let's face it, VAM's no how large the organization (SSDC & VW) might be is still a niche market but requires a considerable amount of knowledge that I don't think you will find from the average eBay buyer.

By the way, I don't know if you know it or not, but the SSDC started their own registry for VAM's last year (?) and coins don't even have to be certified by a TPG as long as the attribution can be confirmed.

Chris

 

Approximately how many VAM collectors are out there? Demographics?

As for niche, there was probably a niche market for Pet Rocks also, once-upon-a-time...
Don't laugh, made Gary Dahl $15 million in 6 months or so:
http://www.petsdo.com/blog/pet-rock-made-man-multi-millionaire-6-months-lives

 

I haven't got the slightest idea how many VAMmers are out there. They don't have to register with their parole officers.

I've got a pet rock......"See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

Chris