Obamacare 2014 - Precious Metals

There have been several articles recently warning of tax increases, fines, layoffs etc. in 2014 as the bad news in Obamacare kicks in. All of the articles forecast a drag on the economy.

None of these have gone as far as to forecast stockbond/pm markets as a result. Has anyone in the forum seen any PM forecast in 2014 related to Obamacare implementation?

 

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No, but I have been briefed on the affect of health insurance prices. Most of the large carriers are going to increase the price of a health insurance policy from 40-140% next year. This is for individual policies, not through work, but employers are getting stuck with at least three additional fees, (they will not call them taxes), for the privilege of providing health care to their employees.

All in all it will be a bloody mess, and a severe disruption to both companies and their employees. As such, I could see GDP of this country going down simply due to the mass confusion.

From that, you can draw your own PM conclusion.

 

My health ins went up 25% this year, and that is on my company provided plan. Last year I paid $400/month for full family coverage, this year it's $500/month. Now, this is still not bad compared to a lot and I'm not complaining, but the raises in premiums have already begun in most places. How high it will go will ultimately depend on the drain of all these newly insured on the balance sheets. Requiring everyone to have insurance not only pays more into the system, but takes more since more will be using insurance as the result of having it.

I agree with Medoraman, this will be a mess for the next few years as all this kicks in and companies and people adjust. How it will all play out ultimately remains to be seen, but it will probably be wildly fluctuating for the first 2-3 years at least. The end result is most likely more people will spend less either because they have to (i.e. they're adjusting to higher premiums already hitting them), or they are expecting to (holding back to cover what they see forthcoming).

What this will do to PM's is anyone's guess, but I personally think at the least we won't head downwards, and also at the least we won't head for the sky either.

 

Howdy all,

While things will probably be messy, unless the economy reverses and turns back down, the Fed should slow their Quantitative Easing and that in an of itself is negative for the POG and POS. The big drivers for them are inflation and too much fiat currency. So far, inflation has been tame for a list of reasons - the liquidity trap resulting from interest rates artificially below the market rate. This has resulted in about a zero velocity of money [if it don't circulate inflation is not passed through], internet sales and globalism, lack of upward wage pressure, and all of this compounded by the current formulae for calculating the CPI. By this I mean that the formula understate inflation - market basket choices and weightings but more importantly Hedonic Adjustments and the Substitution Policy. The former says that if the new productd or service is improved, they can charge more and it doesn't count. Sounds good but only if you are still able to buy the old UNimproved version and that's not normally the case. The latter is that if steak becomes too expensive, you'll switch to hamburger . . . and that doesn't count. feh.

So, net/net, Obamacare in and of itself should have minimal impact of precious metals. They will be impacted by inflation and the value of the dollar.

and so it goes,

peace,

rono

 

so you're stating we're on the up and up? And helicopter Ben is going to stop printing money? And inflation isn't a problem?


Based upon my own experience, this Obama care is going to hurt everyone! My employer since Jan 1st will not allow part time employees to work more than 30 hours/week, why? If they do they have to provide benefits to those employees under the new Obama care laws.

So I think we're heading in the same direction, down the crapper. I'd love to be optimistic but seeing who's running the country(the banks you say are going to ease off on the QE, yeah.... Sure) there's nothing good in it for us.



The stock market might hit a billion or crash to 3,000, but I know I'd rather buy silver and wait then wait to buy silver. Paper is..... Paper

 

I'm not intending to defend the law, but this isn't necessarily new. It may be much more becoming the norm in many more places than it used to, but this practice has existed for years. Back in the '90's a buddy of mine was working for a local supermarket, paying his way through college. He was originally a normal 40 hours/week, and working with overtime up to 50 hours/week, with provided insurance. Then they decided it would be cheaper to change everyone to max 30 hours/week since they didn't have to pay for insurance. If this was happening way back then, it's going to be an even bigger problem now.

 

A limited viewpoint from the employer. He must feel he has a stagnant company and the work of his current employees is not worth the personal money he would have to spend for health care. A growing company would lose more in training, lost time due to illness, and loyalty of both buyers and employees, who would have less incentive to report problems, thievery, etc. Look at the difference between Costco and Walmart service. Costco already pays insurance, hires a very high percentage full-timers, and the culture is high service oriented. Also the door-greeter I know said she received 2 $3000 bonuses last year as Costco is doing so well. Costco employees really are enthusiastic and like working there as they know they are appreciated. I think everyone knows the Walmart culture. Owners can benefit with short hour employees for a while, but the business model is flawed. IMO.

 

We have also begun to see and will see more hiring of short-term contract workers. More people will experience unsteady employment because of this.

 

Obamacare is Romneycare (and from a rightwing WP of The Heritage Foundation, if you are uninformed) and Massachusetts hasn't collapsed in the last 5 years. Tax-burden it may be, Romneycare has NOT hurt MA business overall, the local economy is actually ALOT better off than most places. (And why people leave Red States for ours, NOT vice-versa. Sorry: that's a Reality-Check for losers!) The OP's problem is imagining Obamascare is real (as a purported economic threat) rather than just political gibberish from knuckle-dragging neaderthal haters who lost a war in 1865. Those people have no answers either; they want a kleptocrat 'Post-Soviet' or neo-plantation solution that will enslave us all instead - no thanks, chief!

THAT SAID (honestly) the real problem here is tangentially-related ; it's (both parties) the US govt's attitude of kicking-the-can-down-the-road, un- or underfunded liabilities and a spiralling national debt... which WILL (IMO) eventually 'break the bank' around 2016-2022. This foolishness goes back to the mid-1990s at least, it's nothing new. 2000 was the onset of the current disinflationary period (2000-2021) so we shouldn't blame Obama or whoever becomes President in 2017. The UK may also witness TRIPLE-DIP RECESSION this year... never happened before, in British history.

Only some can grasp this is a very deep-rooted and poorly understood global economic crisis; rotten Paper is the reason and blaming a black President (or a Tory) is absurd. The next time the stock markets tank hard (> -35%) we will also see major declines in PM Spot prices; take that as a fantastic opportunity to load up on more bullion before the next round of QE/printing starts. They have NO ALTERNATIVE but to print, print, print ... so YES, I agree it probably starts after 2014 and will explode (as hyperinflation) around 2017-2022.
(But Obamascare still has NOTHING to do with it.)

 

I like knuckle-dragging Neanderthals:hail: 2017-2022 sounds like more time to buy PMs...

 

I generally agree with Rono, I don't think Obamacare will have much of a direct impact on markets. What it will do is put more people below the poverty line and force companies to tighten the belt even further. That will indirectly put a drag the amount of money available to spur the economy, making QE that much less likely to slow (as if they had any intention to stop stealing from everybody through inflation), and further solidifying the fundamental case for owning precious metals.

 

Nevermind

 

Has anyone ever found better words? Sometimes I love you man (but, not often).

 

yeahhh except the difference is that it's a STATE level version....and not nearly as invasive....

 

What? Right wing talking point? If anything on a larger scale, it should be more efficient - healthcare is one area where economies of scale are present. Of course, we'd never want to enact a truly efficient one payer system, that would upset the powerful, profitable elite insurance companies.

 

I'm surprised this thread has survived this long!

 

It started off intelligently enough.....

 

I know. i was going to post something, but it turned into a pointless thread of republicans are evil, rich people are evil.