Hey folks - I am looking to buy a 1 ounce 2013 Chinese Gold Pana, I absolutely love the design of the coin. My question is, with gold at $1599 should I buy the coin now or wait a few months hoping gold will go down? Do you see gold dramatically dropping in the upcoming months? Thanks so much guys! Richard
I'm not sure of your political leanings so any offense is unintentional. The current administration is trying to keep the economy running by printing money and keeping rates low. On the other side they have been antagonistic to business' and have most entrepreneurs taking a conservative approach to navigating the waters ahead. Myself I have and am digging in against the oncoming inflation storm. Pm's, real estate, livestock, junk metal and so forth. I'm silver oriented but gold looks bullish over the next few years.
Gold's going down (NOT dramatically) before it goes up YES. I'd give pretty good odds you will see Au under 1550 in the next 6 months. (Retail) premiums might rise though, offsetting any hoped-for discount. And remember: buy from a reputable dealer. If a price looks to good to be true, it probably is!
Well if you haven't bought it since you posted this you're already getting it $25 cheaper than when you started this thread. If you like the coin what's a possible $30-40 difference in price. If it takes off tomorrow you'll be kicking yourself whereas if you by it the dollar price doesn't matter until you sell it Just my opinion
Yes - Because one side or the other of that "or" question is the right answer. I prefer not to gamble with other peoples' money, so I won't even attempt to venture a guess as to what the future price of gold might be. Whichever way you choose, I hope it works out well for you.
If you are buying gold to diversify now is a good time to buy but if you are already diversified i would hold off on buying any PMs. IMO there is very good chance Gold can go below 1500 and when that happens you will find a lot of good bargains in secondary markets. Right know prices of Pandas and other gold coins have barely budget in ebay for past 2 months even though spot prices have dropped.
Pandas have proven to be a decent investment whether the precious metal in them has gone up or not. For example, a 2000 silver panda is already worth about $300. The collector's value should easily offset the volatility of the value of gold. I say go for it, if you can afford it and you want it.
Troodon- Thanks for pointing out the 2000 1ozt Ag Panda example. I don't know enough about this particular niche to confirm or deny your points, but offer a few questions instead. 1) 'Vintage Silver Pandas have significant numismatic value' .... yes, but is that equally true for Gold Pandas? (If not: apples-to-oranges.) 2) "a 2000 silver panda is already worth about $300." .... are you looking at premiums over 2-3 months, or best auction price? (I see one sold for ~$175. on 2/12/2013.) Longer-term and by comparison, I agree that Chinese PM bullion has better potential to retain/increase numismatic value (versus US bullion, generally) but I wouldn't say my hunch is already proven. And cherry-picking coin examples/auctions doesn't provide proof. Don't ignore cost-basis or do math-two-ways, either. Buying foreign coin as an investment, I'd also want to understand what appeals most to the local (Chinese) market, rather than just my own (American) bias/aesthetic preference. Extra homework required, there.
Richard, this is a simplistic answer, but this is how I would approach it. Keep in mind you are buying a coin and not trying to figure out how to split an atom. 1. If my primary motive for wanting the coin was because I truly loved the design and if I could afford it without taking food out of my family's mouth, I would buy it now so I could enjoy it. 2. If I both like the design and was also interested in price appreciation or at least price maintenance and had a long-term time horizon (that is, over 10 years), I would buy it now and enjoy it. 3. If I was primarily concerned about price appreciation or price maintenance and had less than a long-term time horizon, I really don't know what to tell you, as that's not my manner of operation. Basically, I think you need to know why you want the coin before you can decide what to do.
treehugger- This being the BULLION INVESTING forum (and the OP did specify cost-basis and POG forecast: price discipline) can you explain how your own "enjoyment" issues are relevant? I'm not opposed to "collecting" per se, but a bizarre constellation of hoarder behaviors, habits & rationalizations pops up here from time to time. It's also apparent that coin-addicts need to get honest and admit poor investment when they self-indulge, impulse-buy, and covet filthy lucre lol (I'm only half-joking here.) Why am I not surprised to see enabling ploys, also? Price discipline is like managing a drinking problem (moderation) - wise counsel for investments too. On the other side of the coin: the Gottahaveit Collectors... sheesh, is there a 12-Step Program for that mania? View attachment 241384
You seem to be ignoring a very important and strong statement from the OP: "I absolutely love the design of the coin" IMHO - Enjoyment is a factor for the OP and there's nothing wrong with discussing it. Can you explain your behavior here?
One of the great things about pandas and other semi-numismatic coins is that they aren't at the mercy of spot price. Unlike paper contracts and generic metal which can be hedged, nobody is going to sell a panda for less than they paid for it. If the spot price goes down you should still be able to get what you paid out of it for the most part.
