Gold or Silver prices, what will make the prices go up?? Did we top out already?

2013 forecast: Damien Courvalin/Goldman Sachs suggests avg POG $1,750 and "peak next year amid accelerating U.S. growth." END OF THE GOLD BULL!
2013 forecast: Hussein Allidina/Morgan Stanley said yesterday "bullion {?} will be among next year’s best-performing commodities" avg 2013 price @ POG $1,853 ozt. (He likes Ag, too.) GOLD BULL CONTINES!

 

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Hard core Gold bugs see major institutional investors pulling money from Paulsen, Paulsen selling GLD, etc. (Or, hedgies prepping their portfolios to report.)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-...vestments-explanation-recent-gold-liquidation

Paper Gold's retrace is an excellent opportunity for the Gold-interested looking to add abit, or those without (sidelined, waiting) to finally allocate a small wedge: don't be timid, proactively BUY THE DIP(s) in moderation. Later on (maybe not until 2014), a big deflationary drop will probably scare the beejeezus out of casual Gold allocators and equity mkts alike... but this isn't that huge buying moment either. It's time for a little bullion shopping, that's all.

Until Uncle Sam REALLY gets his fiscal house in order -years from now- we're still riding a 14- or 21-year Gold Bull mkt into the Dollar's sunset.
(And timewise, I reckon it's only 'late afternoon in mid June' now.) Just my two cents.

 

Technicals, or the story of the tape as Jesse Livermore puts it, don't really give that much reliable indication as to what is going to happen. They tell you what has happened, and then it's up to us to find out the reasons why after the fact. It is the reasons that will drive future moves, not the technicals. Although there are plenty of rules of thumb that are relatively reliable such as price staying within bollinger bands 90% of the time, and sure people will put their stops in at peaks and troughs, but those things don't drive the market movements, they are at the mercy of market movements.

I think you hit the nail on the head that it is simply paper metals taking profits now before capital gains goes up. Once 2013 kicks off I expect things to pick up (portfolios done adjusting, Mayan calendar non-event makes people realize they still have to plan for the future), but if not then that would be a better indication to me that metals are in for headwinds than what is going on right now.

 

Technical analysis incorporates all of the fundamental information that is known or can be known by investors. Most of the time, a chart will tell you nothing, and whenever you see an article with a chart that has a line or arrow extending into the future, beware. But the charts also contain all of the emotions and decisions of investors, so certain chart patterns and breakouts mark entry points where the probability of gain is greater than the probability of loss. I have always been a diehard value investor [still am] and thought technical analysis was garbage until I studied it a bit and realized that TA and value investing have the same underlying basis - that sometimes market prices are incorrect and money can be made by riding the correction. I still prefer value investing but consider the techniques about equal.

 

I obviously like charts - and find this one (about The Big Picture) is informative.
I don't agree w/ everything he says, either (Gold demand from Iran has been more significant than increasing Indian jewelry demand, for example; wholly unsubstantiated 'Gold mania' claim, etc.) But see link.


http://www.bullbeartalk.com/forum/l...oxing-day-panic-dude-wheres-my-inflation.html

Also note Jim Roger's statement 12/18/2012 that "{Gold has} been correcting for 15-16 months now, which is normal in my view, and it's possible that correction is going to continue for a while longer."

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Not to quote myself, but just for reference sake (11/16/2012): http://www.cointalk.com/t217473-3/#post1574519

As news would later have it (four days later!) MS told investors to liquidate their Paulson (gold-weighted) holdings:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/19/us-hedgefunds-paulson-morganstanley-idUSBRE8BI1MK20121219
http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanv...e-john-paulsons-hedge-fund-too-big-to-manage/

Gold closed on London 12/31/2012 @ USD 1664, very close to (just below) my low-range call ... but waaaaay below the unrealistic $1,850 that many Gold Bulls here "hoped" for.

So where is Gold going next (March 31, 2013) - sideways, up, or down? Any thoughts?

 

Short term, anything can happen. I don't see much downside for gold or silver at this point though. Gold is in the process of completing flag formations in numerous currencies, and I have a feeling it's due to break upward. Everyone worries about deflation, but a repeat of 2008 could spell the great reset so I don't think we'll get another gift like before, as in buying for ultra low prices. Plus with a steady stream of QE now I am thinking things will keep creeping upward until something major happens - failures to deliver, China announcing they have enough gold to be the world reserve currency or opening up a physical metal exchange, or more global unreset. Any of these could propel the price, but as long as things are status quo the paper markets will do their job and keep the price where it needs to be - high enough to avoid a shortage but low enough to deter as many potential buyers as possible, allowing for a slow, steady, and most importantly, largely unnoticeable rise.

 

I don't know what will happen, but I made a couple of bets on gold and silver lately, and I hope I'm not wrong. It seems like whenever I buy some the price tanks the next day. Sorry.

 

Why "gamble" on PMs?
Why "hope"?
Contrarian indicator fail?
Sorry?

That isn't investing, it's folly.

 

I agree short term anything is possible. I would say long term, though, PM could fail to keep pace with inflation due to one word: Oil. If oil prices stay lower, then the miners are making large profits and this encourages more production.

US demand for oil from outside North America is going down quickly, and I believe this action could keep prices relatively in check.

Never forget if you make 2% on PM in a year you have lost money. Since PM does not pay dividends of interest, (in fact costs you money to secure it), it has to go up by inflation just to stay even. This means at todays prices silver needs to go up about a dollar a year to stay even. Gold needs to go up about $50 a year to stay even.

Please take this into account when you think how much "profit" you have made in PM. How much "profit" has there been in PM in the last two years? Looks to me like some sizable losses.....

Again, I am absolutely not saying not to buy PM, just putting any "gains" into perspective. If silver is not $40 or more 10 years from now you have lost money.

 

Long term? Not necessarily. Price of Gold (POG) has risen from $280 ozt to $1900 ozt, > 6x -- the strongest incentive to increase production in history? -- and US labor costs have been stagnant. Oil only rose 4x, $22.81-$87.48. Yet US production has collapsed from 12% > 8% of global output (U.S. production of gold has been declining since 1998, down ~-37%.) That's not because of the Oil Price either.

Also, SA was 15% of global output in 2002 but just 7% in 2011! Where is the presumed increase in production, with greater profitability? Are ~40% of the SA fields still not producing? What gives?http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-26/39-south-african-gold-production-now-offline

12 years into a Gold Bull Market (long term) miners cannot ramp up operations?? And the notion Oil Prices are falling enough to create more supply has proven a chimera, 2008-2012 (medium term.) Oil has fallen nearly -50% since July 2008 (4.5 years!) Gold has increase ... yet production has fallen. The story now is WAGES. Real inflation abroad - not the US-fix Price of Oil - will continue to undermine Gold production. Oil priced in Dollars is less and less important anyway. The Arab Spring was a wake-up call to Dollar-beholden frightened satraps: SELL DOLLARS, BUY GOLD. And so they are.

It's not just MENA. Around the world the Dollar Scheme against commodity producers abroad is unwinding, failing... trend hasn't broken, folks. POG over time (medium and long-term) shows that, a harbinger: more of what's to come.

Gold is just the canary-in-the-coal-mine.

 

Since I measure wealth in ounces, hard sound money, any PM purchase to me is pure profit. Selling my PM for dollars would be parting with said profits for a depreciating debt based currency. It's all about what side of the coin you want to look at it from So I've made significant profits simply by accumulating, flipping my dollars so to speak. When the dollar gets replaced with a new currency I have little doubt it will have been the right move. Price is irrelevant with the exception of how much I get to buy each paycheck.

 

Long term obviously precious metals will continue to rise in value vs the USD however short term do you guys think this is a good entry point for silver and gold or should I wait until the debt ceiling crisis?

 

If your only measurement of value is ounces of PM, then no there is no argument that you wish to get every ounce you can.

I don't buy it but hope you don't get hurt by this thinking, I truly do sir.

 

Thanks Chris, I'm not too concerned, but yes there is certainly risk involved since most people don't think this way. Maybe I will end up losing out if I get into a position where I have to sell, but if I never have to sell then nothing to worry about. TBH I'm not really interested in profits as much as protection anyway.

 

You have to procede with the idea of converting your holdings into another asset in the future. Else it is nothing more than an accumilation of an estate of which your heirs will be fighting over.

 

Not if gold and silver are remonetized. And not if I write my will properly

 

Don't forget Platinum (UP +2% today) that's "XPT" on the uniform currency list, ISO 4217.

A Trillion Dollar coin in Platinum is MONEY, after all!

 

Protection is wonderful, but what is protecting your portfolio from a scenario played out in the 80/90's? What is protecting you from growth, being able to keep up with, or hopefully exceed, inflation? That is my only concern sir.

Yes, buying PM will let you sleep at night knowing you have some protection from certain scenarios, but I at least have to accept there are multiple scenarios that could play out. In many of these scenarios, having all of your money tied up in an either declining or non0growing asset is not advantageous.

That's all man. If your PM is to help offset some other assets you own, I am in favor of that. I simply am not in favor of most in your assets in PM for the reasons cited.

 

Simple, metals can't go to zero. Bonds can. Stocks can. Currency can. Even if I lose money I'll never be holding an empty bag. In addition to that type of protection there is another kind we have not touched upon, which is protection from being required to participate in a system managed by tyrants. Metals are the exit door.

Also, it is pretty unrealistic to think that any scenario other than hyperinflation OR default will play out. The Fed can't stop doing QE, otherwise they wouldn't need to do it in the first place. By doing QE they are killing free market competition, preventing any real chance at an economic recovery, and making any sense of recovery that much more dependent on further QE. At some point the new debt incurred by interest on existing debt will exceed the capacity to tax the people, and there are only 2 possible outcomes to that.