40% Kennedy half ?

I have quite a few 40% halves and I continue to buy more. I also buy the 40% eisenhowers too.

Yes, they aren't worth as much. BUT - they also don't cost me as much to buy. So I say it doesn't matter.

One of the reasons I buy the 40% coins is because it is more fun. I enjoy bidding on them on eBay, trying to buy as many as I can for at or under spot. I have a limited budged of about $100 per month to invest. So I could buy 2 Silver Eagles (and change) or 7 of the 90% halfs. Well, that won't keep my busy very long. I can buy as many as 20 of the 40% halves, or 8 of the larger 40% eisenhowers.

 

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It does not matter unless you fall below that floor, then they are worth close to face value because it costs too much to extract the bullion. I would only purchase 40% silver coins at the most, 15% above face.

 

Wait... so you wouldn't buy a 1970 Kennedy for 58-cents or a 1973s Proof silver Ike for $1.16?

 

Let me qualify by saying yes, of course I would, however, I would immediately resell at the market rate and purchase 90% or above.

My meaning was, and is, given the choice at current market prices, I would put my money into 90% or above rather than 40%.

I feel 40% is only worth purchasing near the floor I spoke of previously, and then at no more than 15% over face.

 

I agree with cloudsweeper. Keep'em

 

Sell 'em.

 

So... you're saying that you would only purchase 40% Kennedy halves at 58 cents apiece or less, but you're qualifying that statement by saying that of course you would buy them at a higher price and immediately resell them? :scratch:

I know that I can sell 40% silver for better than 8x FV at the current silver price. So, if I get a chance to buy them at even 4x or 5x face value, I'll jump on it immediately. I rarely turn up my nose at a quick 100% profit. I wouldn't feel compelled at all to hold out for a 600% profit.

 

Never turn down a chance to make a profit, but all else being equal, purchase 90% or higher.

 

So, just about 50% of spot? That *kinda* makes sense. When silver was at $6, I remember getting 90% at $4 per $1 face.

 

I think The consensus is to save and let go if silver goes up to a nice level high. Or sell if it goes to low. But I think if it goes down I would rather keep because the trend is about every 20 years silver sky rockets. Heck by then I will either be gone and my grandson can have them or retired and needing the extra cash . LOL

 

This is a *******ization of trending. Silver does not have a historical trend where it skyrockets every 20 years... If you ONLY look at the 80s through now, it might look that way, but look at silver's track record: The spikes are huge aberrations, not the norm.

Silver may dip to $17 an ounce before stabilizing around $24-$27 an ounce in 2014. Yes, that number might be below what many producers can absorb and still mine for silver... but it just means that many producers will shift to other metals. It's environmental economics.

 

USD$ 17 ? Wow, that's bearish ( a -45% retrace from avg 2012 POS) I'd agree that's an ultra-conservative, risk-aware target, but can you clarify? US stocks would be in the toilet too (SPY @ 110?) - are you predicting a 2013 Bear Mkt on Wall St?

IMO, POS under $20. is a screaming BUY when it comes. Then, as the Dollar printing really starts in earnest, Ag starts gapping updwards circa 2014? (Wild guesses, here.)

fwiw, I disagree with this uber-bullish perspective but here's a projection (from 8/2012) of $50.- 60. in 2013 and why.
http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-price-projection-–-2013-5921

 

I know its not a historical trend but in my few years on earth its been about every 20 years I think or is that about ever 10 years.. I dont know but A few times since I was born it has So maybe it will again if I tell enough people it will IT SURLY WILL, LOL just like $5.00 gas

 

$5.00 gas isn't as much of a big deal as it would have been in the 90s/00s. When gas was $1.32 in 2001, we conducted a research study and analysis of what price could be absorbed before consumer habits were significantly changed. Although all customers said they would be made if gas were above $2 per gallon, even at $4 per gallon, the only noticed change was a probable (defined as at least 50% for the purposes of the study) change from supreme/premium (92 octane) to the mixture option (89 octane). People did not indicate a decrease in driving until prices reached $4.78 (8% saying they'd take the bus) and $5.83 (25% saying they'd take the bus).

Given the shift in US fuel consumption habits, it's unlikely that $5 gas is:
A) Sustainable.
B) Impactful.

A - With the US producing more than 50% of consumed fuel from US derived sources (including the Gulf), OPEC price shocks are unlikely to be sustainable in terms of pricing.

B - Since the study was considered, inflation has proceeded at an annual rate of around 4.3%. Essentially, that would push the threshold equivalent above $8 per gallon. With efficiency standards much higher, it's unlikely it would matter if gasoline reached $14 per gallon, since consumers would use less gas. It'd be more "sticker shock" than anything.

If the US really wanted to curb consumption, the government should mandate that petrol companies price gasoline according to miles driven, rather than gallons used. They'll lose money on inefficient engines, which would get them to lobby for even higher efficiency standards.

 

Silver has "sky rocketed" twice in the last 200 years or so -- once around 1980, and once around 2010. There was a long, gradual uptrend for the first 60 years or so of the 19th century, and a long, gradual downtrend for the next 60 years or so.

Two events separated by an interval don't make a pattern. Not even if those events both happened during your lifetime, although that surely makes them easier for you to remember.

 

I'm not calling for a retrace to $17. I'm calling that as an absolute bottom. At that price, it's cheap enough to hoard silver for producers. Even at $20, producers will be more likely to buy on the open market for current demand, but they won't procure for future demand.

I can't explain why on this one, Juan... it's proprietary.

For the record, I'm bearish on silver long-term. But, I can also foresee $40 in the short run around February due to corrections overall in the currency trade. After that, it should be a bearish market through the next election cycle.