Gold or Silver prices, what will make the prices go up?? Did we top out already?

Indeed. IMO Viet Nam was the catalyst for the 1970's PM bull market, because of all the money printing it took to fund it, forcing us to abandon the gold standard. Independently of that, the fear trade will likey give gold a boost if peoples' faith in the stability of their nation is shaken.

 

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^Well there was also the fact that it had been illegal for Americans to own gold, beyond token amounts, for close to 4 decades. When the ban was released a huge market opened up for it.

 

fatima-
I'm aware President Gerald Ford sign an Executive Order leading to P.L. 93-373 (repeal of Roosevelt's Exec Order 6012) permitting Gold ownership/trading by US residents after December 31, 1974. My question is HOW MUCH GOLD WAS SUBSEQUENTLY BOUGHT, as a result?

I've been led to believe that alot more Gold was 'under the mattress' than everyone assumed - so I'd like to know how much bigger the market became from 1975 on. I'm doubtful, really.

In the USA today, how many retail Gold holders are there (net dealers/brokers/jewelers/etc.) 300k? 600k? Do the math, that's just about 0.1-0.2% of the population, certainly not a 'huge market' you'll admit. As a percentage, I wouldn't be surprised to learn the Au bullion/coin hoarding base has actually SHRUNK since 1979.

Love to see some hard data, either way.

 

So would I. It would be an interesting discussion.

Originally, I was thinking you may be right about the shrinking coin base, but then I remembered kruggerands, and how they really expanded the coin holding base in gold. AGE and the like after were just copying South Africa's brilliant idea. After sifting through that, I would be of the opposite opinion, that gold holdings in coin form have actually increased quite a bit in the last 30 years.

But, like you said, it would be great if anyone had any real data.

 

You will never get any relevant data on this because my experience is a great deal of retail sized (though not retail) gold is bought and sold where no records are ever made. I've said before. If you are a phyiscal holder of gold, it's best to keep it out of the system.

 

I can't say how relevant this is to POG, but the Indian govt is putting a damper on borrowed spec (in theory at least LOL)
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/co...-to-lend-for-purchasegoldany-form_784442.html

 

All I can say is the price of gold went up approximately $30 to $35 from the date I started this thread and with all the unrest in Egypt et.al. my guess is that it'll go up a bit more. I just want to see it pass $1850 an ounce before Xmas. Will it happen or am I barking up the wrong tree?

 

fretboard-
Are you in futures, or what? "$1850?" No one here has a crystal-ball: it'll happen if it happens (and nothing spooks capital mkts, obv.) but I doubt December typically offers that kind of gain. Your data shows otherwise?

With any economic shock or crisis (impacting Big Capital and the PM ETFs, globally) Gold probably has a far greater potential for loss than you're currently expecting.
With investments, it's better to focus on the downside, I'd argue. Brace yourself for that possibility (whether or not it comes to pass) - and you should NOT be losing any sleep over this.

fwiw, this is the month that hedge funds rebalance to report - while Gold is getting more interest now, Paper PMs could also get riskier on the volatility trade.
Nothing's changed. ETFs are what's driving POG, not bullion-buying. Just saying.

 

Relax dude, don't take what I say so seriously. I am definitely not in futures. My data shows nothing and basically I am on here to learn, I am not on here to teach anyone about the price of gold or the rise and fall of such prices. As far as December showing a gain of $1850 an ounce I am free to hope and dream last I checked. ~kind regards

 

I'm with you. I think we all hope for a skyrocket in December.

 

Mid-October projections (unduly optimistic I think) :
- Credit Suisse lifts ’13 gold view 7% to $1,840
- Credit Suisse Ups 3-Month Gold View to $1,775
- UBS Lifts 1-Month Gold Forecast To $1,850
- JPM And Goldman See $1,800 Gold By Year End

Range-bound is currently $1,740. - 1,775. So I'll 'bearishly' stick to/ guess ~1,685 - 1,710. for 12/31/2012

Is it true that CBs are buying dips?
http://www.istockanalyst.com/financ...l-breakout-paves-way-for-further-price-action

 

I have no idea WHAT that means, but this mkt commentary sounds well-informed.
http://www.businessinsider.com/gold...sive-odd-35-million-ounce-sell-orders-2012-11

Here's another. Interesting bit on Iran's Gas-for-Gold trade. Commerzbank's uptrend target is ~$1,735, fwiw
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-us-sanctions-to-end-turkeys-game-of-gold-for-natural-gas-2012-11

In 2009, Turkey's estimated export of 'fininshed product' (including jewelry) was just $1.5 bln.
In 2010 and 2011, Turkey's annual Gold export was $2.15 bln.
In the first eight months of 2012, Turkey's gold exports as a whole jumped more than fourfold to $11.2 billion (~$ 16.8 bln/ann.) - you can bet nearly ALL of that is to Iran.

Bookmark the Goldcore Bullion archive if those new articles interest you:
http://www.businessinsider.com/author/goldcore-bullion-and-wealth-management-company

 

The analogy of the shoe shine boy is from the old days in that if even the shoe shine boy (or taxi driver, store clerk, etc.) is telling you it's a good time to buy [fill in the blank] then that must mean it is a top and it's time to sell it. If the shoe shine boys are still selling their gold then by this logic it is not in a top.

However I disagree that this analogy holds any merit in today's markets one way or the other. Computer algorithms dominate over 90% of all trades. Shoe shine boys don't have an impact anymore.

 

Not sure I would say that. The analogy was really talking about non-traditional investors and their participation in markets. When a market gets flooded with non-traditional investors, 2 things happen. 1, prices explode, and 2, prices become more volatile. Non-traditional investors usually aren't in it for the long haul, more for a quick buck, and as such add volatility to markets. If they become disillusioned with it, they can leave very quickly, dropping the market as fast or faster than they raised it.

So, I would ask do you believe the average American, (or average world citizen), is more apt to be interested in PM today than 10 years ago? I believe that would be more analogous to the "shoeshine boy". I am not making predictions or saying anything abotu the market today, just clarifying this point.

Btw, that shoeshine boy story was the reason one major investor avoided the stock market crash of 29. That was his reason why he sold every single stock he owned 6 months before the crash.

 

I don't think the story has a shred of truth to it, but it makes a good story.

 

Maybe not, but it came from the investor himself for years. His name is known, but escapes me. At least I had always read he told the story himself, I never heard him tell it personally.

But yeah, just like a lot of things in life, there are reasons, good reasons, and REAL reasons why people do things.

 

It reminds me of Warren Buffett's claim that he uses discounted cash flow to value companies. Then his long-time partner, Charlie Munger comes along and says, "I've never seen him do that."

 

Ah yes - the oft-repeated story of the shoeshine boy/ bellhop/ taxi-driver/ barber/ etc.

"It is said that Henry Ford was taking the elevator to his penthouse one day in 1929, and the operator said, 'Mr. Ford, a friend of mine who knows a lot about stocks recommended that I buy shares in X, Y, and Z. You are a person with a lot of money. You should seize this opportunity.' Ford thanked him, and as soon as he got into his penthouse, he called his broker, and told him to sell everything. He explained afterwards: 'If the elevator operator recommends buying, you should have sold long ago.'"

Similar stories say it was a bell-hop ("Buy Hindenburg!") and Joseph Kennedy who mkt-timed the crash successfully. Variants include Bernard Barooke "Sell it all! When shoe shine boys are giving out stock tips, its time to get out." Pretty sure I read it was John D. Rockefeller LOL

Conceptually, this theme sounds right ... but 'the shoeshine boy' was almost certainly a totally fabricated anecdote.

Goldcore Bullion's point, however, is entirely correct. Almost no Americans own any Gold at all (Paper or otherwise) and the continued selling of junk Au further illustrates that dumb money is still clueless, stuck on the wrong side of the wealth-trade.

But on websites Paper-Bugs have been claiming for YEARS (since 2004, I've seen) that "the shoeshine boys" are buying. So... who's lying?

 

I guess I would wonder about that. I believe every single American friend, (all my Thai friends of course own gold), have gold as well. It may not be bars or coins, but all of them have gold necklaces, earrings, rings, etc. It may only be a couple ounces or so, but still.

Where did the stat that "almost NO own ANY gold at all" come from? Me and my friends sure aren't indicative of that, and no, all of my friends are not coin collectors, (I am the only one actually).

 

ANYTHING appreciable. As in "any percentage of the portfolio" "anything significant." 14k gold (junk) and fillings doesn't constitute a 'position' nor an 'investment' in Gold.
We're talking about Bubbles ("shoeshine boys") here, not dental fillings.

The number of US individuals 'owning Gold' of significant quantity is ~300k, maybe 600k : that's 0.1% or "almost no Americans" in a population of ~ 311 mln.