Well here goes nothing.....

I'll just take this opportunity to repeat my point that I think bullion "investing" is a zero-sum game. At the retail level, there's no real nor implied 'capital appreciation' in PMs; it's WRONG to imagine otherwise.

Sure bullion can be a great trade (if you buy at a steep discount, i.e. October 2008) and hold until a blow-off top. Otherwise, best case scenario, PMs pretty much just keep pace with inflation. It's really silly to imagine there's 'gain' in this kind of trade, even though I agree most everything else might look even WORSE! If you bought in 2012, I suppose you'll be lucky to break-even. I very very much doubt you'll "make" money in PMs; johnny come-latelys almost never do.

PMs are a 'radical' paper hedge, prudent I think, but not 'money-making' - sorry.

 

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Anyone can pick and choose dates to make their particular investment argument in hindsight seem nice. So your logic fails on that account. This is a bullion investment forum. I have cause to wonder why you come here to to this particular forum if you don't believe in it.

 

And that's neither here nor there, superfluous and totally irrelevant to both
a) what I said, and
b) the OP's stated intention: "I will be in this situation for about 2 years {...} making money and accomplishing my goal at the same time."

You cannot pick & choose dates, fatima. The OP specified two years, ~November 2014. EOS. Whether you like it or not, whether you want to hear/read it or not, it is what it is.

This isn't difficult to grasp. For bullion, someone likely paid a 12-15% premium over avg Spot @ $32.41 with the intention to "make money" in two years: imagine it's 1,000 ozt. = initial cost USD$ 36,300. Assuming 4% annual inflation in real prices, the buyer needs to sell at ~$40k to slightly break even. The target Sell price is therefore POS > $39.26 - $40. on November 2014, just to break even. I'm not convinced a reasonable cost-benefit analysis (for 2 years) warrants this kind of trade (holding/selling bullion) but 'other personal factors' might justify this rationale. I'm also not convinced we won't see a bigger sell-off than gain in THE NEXT 24 MONTHS... it may be, or not.

So - for the short term, risk-averse trader (the OP, as self-declared) - I DO think Silver is a poor asset choice for his stated purpose.

Hahaha! That's frikken hilarious. Do you realize what you just wrote?

 

Every investment forum has longs, shorts, and every one in between presenting their opinions. Why should a bullion forum be any different? Is what you want a forum where everyone agrees? YEAH Bullion, BUY, BUY, BUY. That would not be an investment forum at all. More like a feel good cheerleader forum.

Also, bullion is not something you believe in, it is something you make a decision about.

 

I'd like to know what the (other) bullionists expect to "make" by November 2014. The US stock mkt (SPY) is UP +12.6% YTD ; Silver (SLV) is UP +22.4% in 2012.

If I was picking 'either/or' and my stated goal was 'to MAKE MONEY' I'd want to know in how many consecutive calendar years Silver outperformed stocks (or different categories of stocks.)

This time is different? Again I'll note: historically, as an asset class Silver has a fairly high risk-return profile. Gamblers do look at different risk-equivalent options, no?

fwiw, I called Gold for clients in 2002 and added GLD to my portfolios in 2005. I (still) like PMs generally and bullion (as a Paper hedge) even more... but all-or-nothing is an idiot's dilemma really. True players will agree this PM rally may be somewhat 'long in the tooth,' and there WILL be times to short PMs. Especially for those holding a significant stash - again - study & carefully consider those short/bearish PM ETFs (mentioned earlier) for timely & periodic hedging & portfolio protection.

 

On the first point, we already agreed the outlook for a physical bullion investor should be 5+ years.

Yet you give an example that is based on 2 years. :foot-mouth:

So your assumptions used to back your case don't agree with what you already said. i.e. your assumption is unrealistic even by your own standards. 5 years ago spot price for silver was $9.25. So the party holding silver easily did quite well with this investment. As I stated earlier, anyone can cherry pick dates after the fact. Therefore your argument is completely disproved when criteria, that you previously gave, is applied.


On the last point, whether you are amused or not is irrelevant. You didn't address the question asked. However I will answer yours. Yes I know exactly what I wrote.

 

I tend to agree with the qualification that I believe sometimes PMs are a good investment and will outperform other asset classes and inflation, and sometimes PMs will underperform. A dozen years ago gold and silver were selling at prices lower than 20 years earlier and were selling near or below total production cost. I think PMs are still good, but not as good.

 

I think the direction for bullion is still up. This is a once in a lifetime bull market for PMs. I also like common stocks because they really haven't gone anywhere in a dozen or more years and are like a spring that is winding tighter. Guessing, I would say bullion will outperform to 2014 and stocks will outperform to 2020.

 

that is nice i guess the news cast i seen was wrong,but that was not the point and i did not intentionally mean to slam your guy.by the way i assume that you have no problem with his money which is most of it that he keeps out of harms way.i am sure he is justified in what he is doing.

 

The fact that everyone thinks its a bad idea, makes me think I'm gonna do well. Going against the "masses" usually pays off
ps. Silver is up 2 bucks since I bought. Just sayin...

 

Indeed. You can almost rest assured that when people are lining up to buy an investment, then a great fleecing is getting ready to take place.

 

People are lining up to buy silver? Heck when i talk to people seems they never even heard of silver lmao. The percentage of silver savoy people seems large when your on a forum like this but i dont see masses of people buying or even talking about silver. Just my 2 cents only time will tell.

 

I must admit. Most people I come across dont even know they might own junk silver in their pockets. Though I always offer to get them sodas from the machine with their quarters if they don't want to get up

 

I agree wth the general public not knowing about silver prices. It's gold that they talk about and the ones that think they are investment smart are the ones paying the $1,700+ for their ounces or those that are bragging about how they got such a good deal by selling their "junk" gold to a guy at a hotel who paid them $800 for a handful of old rings and broken chains.

 

I didn't say this. Maybe you ought to re-read it in context.

 

Aren't most people (basically) still lining up to SELL Silver? We've got years to go before that trend changes, IMO.
At least it's not to the Cash4Gold scammers anymore LOL There goes everything, in the mail...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/29/cash4gold-sold-for-chump-_n_2039753.html

 

My bad if I mis quoted you.

 

Not disagreeing with you here, but my analogy was selling silver to buy stocks in general, not one particular stock. In that case I do not think there would be any such responses, but since it is hypothetical we can't say one way or the other.

I also want to add that I have rethought my previous assessment of the responses. It seems more likely that the herd mentality is so engrained in investing in 401K's that there need not be a concerted effort for there to be resistance in abandoning them. People are just reluctant to change their ways of thinking, and will cling to the way it's been done until they are forced to do otherwise. This simply says to me that we are nowhere near a top in metals.

Being humble really has nothing to do with investing. Being humble is all about attitude. You can invest however you like and if you don't tell anyone then you are being humble regardless. A word such as 'sensible' might apply better although that's a matter of opinion.

 

Because it can't deliver the metal? Force majeure ad infinitum.

 

Agreed, sellers are out in force right now on the threads I watch for buy/sell/trade, probably worried about a paper selloff from the fiscal cliff. This will continue to be the case until we all begin to measure wealth in ounces instead of dollars, and that's not going to happen until the price breaks out on its own accord. Those of us doing so already have a great head start, even this late in the game.