From a wall street perspective

I don't have too much fear either, but I'm not jumping into the lions cage at the zoo anytime soon either.

 

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Jim Rogers has always been called a commodity guru, so I thought this report might please every one. For some, his comment that he sees silver as a better current investment than gold......

For the others he says “Exchange traded products are convenient for commodities. I always buy exchange traded products and it’s terrific,”

Guess now the opposite views should say "Gold Rules" and " Poor Jim, he doesn't realize SLV is short millions of ounces"



Jim

 

Also, Jim Rogers is known for his deep research on anything he buys -- probably deeper than reading a few internet articles. If there was even a hint that ETFs had problems, it's a pretty good bet that he wouldn't buy them.

 

If I may ... how exactly can anyone look at the silver chart and not conclude it is manipulated? I mean 50-60% drops all over the place? A 40% drop in a week? The silver market is extremely predictable with supply and demand. If there is some other conclusion as to how such price movements can occur without manipulation I am all ears. Margin changes are in fact price manipulation. I know that's a dirty word but it is what it is. Take margin out of the equation completely, require 100% put up or shut up, and then I'll rethink my stance.

 

Hello Inflexion,

It is my opinion there is not a person alive who can look at a chart and determine if manipulation was involved.

Take a peek at the chart, and give me your opinion on when the manipulation started. It it started at 45 why was it so low before the manipulation?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

I couldn't tell you where it started, but I can tell you it was long before the SLV came into existence. The SLV was created because of the price suppression draining physical supply. They needed to divert demand to proxies so that investors would be satisfied without the real thing.

As for the chart, it's all manipulated, and I'll tell you why, because silver is mined as a byproduct. If silver were fair value all the lead and zinc mines would be classified as silver mines - without any change in production, since it's based on revenue. Historically this has never been the case until recently. Also, as I stated, due to margin. Margin allows the market makers to influence the price independently of supply and demand by artificially creating demand when they lower margins or stifling demand when they raise margins as open positions suddenly require additional collateral to be maintained. That is why the chart has waterfalls all over it when there is no reason for such behavior aside from margin manipulation. Sure it may have been maniuplated to the upside as well. We have no way of knowing what fair value is.

 

It's just my opinion that it started right about the end of 1965 when LBJ told people that hoarding silver coinage was a waste of time.

Google is your friend Mike M, so don't ask me for links. I'm respectfully declining to offer them to you because not one of them comes from Faux news or Faux.com, or CNN, MSNBC and the list goes on and on and on......

 

If you look at this file, containing all of the margin changes for silver by the CME ( they also have for gold if you want) from 2009 to current. If you notice, from 2/13/2012 to current there has been 3 margin changes, and ALL were DOWNWARD. The last change was 8/6/2012 and it was down.

http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-management/files/SI_2009_to_present.pdf

Although I have said several times, but some do not believe, ~~ The margins are to protect the CME group from sudden changes which affects their risk factors for everything from options to delivery. The company and the exchanges they have are not to facilitate trading by retail ( us), but for the equivalent of wholesale ( them). The have to provide charges for the maintenance of contract in advance, not past the fact....so when the commodities are changing faster than what they have determined as risk levels they change margins ( if silver goes up or down too fast). They are doing it to protect their stockholders ( even the common shares you or I can buy) from losses, and not someones idea of intrinsic value. People may not like it, but if you play their field, it is the rules. If commodities are stuck in a channel, they lower the margins so they can generate more traffic in trades. Silver has been stuck in a channel , so the margins have decreased over the last 6 months. Change the length of the chart to YTD, and you will see that there are many peaks and dips, and since there were only 3 margin changes, this factor could not account for all of them.

Jim

 

Hi Peace,

I am trying to follow, but I must be missing something. Ok, it is your OPINION that silver has been manipulated for 47 years now. Also your belief it has been kept artificially low, so the theory is, it must be a good deal since the TRUE value is actually much higher. So my question would be, what if the manipulation lasts another 47 years and why would you want to play in such a crooked game. I mean if I am in a crooked poker game, I am not going to wait it out because the people would be so easy to beat if they would just stop cheating. I am picking up my chips and going home.

Mike

 

I'm of the opinion that the generations behind the baby boomers are much better informed as to what is real and what is lies perpetrated by main stream media, those "credible" links some seem to love. They're better informed because they see bias much more clearly than earlier generations and are more likely to go against the grain of what msm likes to pass off as "credible" information. They are the ones that I'm counting on to not sell out their beliefs based of propaganda and information that will maintain the status quo. If you take a look around you, you'll see they're much less likely to live within accepted norms and go against the grain. The powers that shape the world may own the MSM and shape what is told and how it's told, but that doesn't mean they're going to believe that information as gospel or the truth.

Talk to people in their 20's and 30's, you'd be surprised what they have as an outlook and plans of where they'd like to go. They're much less likely to "follow the path" that was laid out for them by previous generations.

 

LOL,

So the younger generation is more informed than the older generation and they know better. Where did I hear that before, It was in the 90's and the 80's and the 70's and the 60's. That is as far back as I can remember, but it started long before that. It has always been the same, some will catch on and get what is happening, others will let life pass them by and say, "what just happened here?"

Good luck Peace,
Mike

 

Considering that I'm not in their generation, yes I do believe they're better informed that all those times in the 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's et all that you heard that in. The reasoning is the tool we're using to communicate with on this board. You see, you scoff and "lol" at things you read on the internet, and in many cases you may be correct in doing so, but in many cases you're a fool to flat out dismiss that information because it's not from who you deem as credible. You might not like it or believe it, but that's your loss.

BTW, your LOL to start your post is condescending, and since it's apparent to me that you think you're belittling me, which you're not, I'm done interacting with you. You live in your world of truth, and I'll live in mine. When it's all said and done, I'll take my chances with my choices, not some that were told to me.

 

The flow of information, both factual, dubious, and downright intentionally false has increased since the advent of the internet and electronic communication. There is no doubt about that. But ask any English/language teacher how is current student's deductive/inductive reasoning compared with the older generations of student. We have gone from published articles such as in Barron's where the author's identity is shown to Yahoo message boards with anonymous authors. The first generation of computer users said it best, GIGO ( Garbage in, Garbage out). It is one thing to read and "believe", and another to read and evaluate each point. Not saying you do or don't, just commenting that more information on the internet doesn't necessarily produce better information.

Yes, the psychology of younger people does differ from that of the older generations. Most feel they can cheat death and poverty. Avoid divorces, business failures, dehabilitating illnesses or injuries, never have to provide for a disabled child or parental long term care, lawsuits, etc. So yes they can throw their plans and futures out there with more ease....but that doesn't mean they are making better decisions in the current time. I love young people, I volunteer for student art centers and classes as their imagination is still so strong and vivid, but they do not reason well. IMO!!

Jim

 

Hold on a second, are you trying to say previous generations never had those same ideas of living in a perfect world? Come on, you can't for a second try to convince me of that. That is a hogwash statement.

 

No, of course not, I was reflecting on your statement above, that the current generation is extracting bias or misinformation better and thus forming their opinions more accurately than the older generations ( who to acknowledge your point, probably thought the same as the TV generation before them , who did so as the Radio generation before them. No one can convince me factually that the ratio of unbiased and truthful information on the internet is higher than any of the other generations. What has changed is the emphasis on amount of information ( of all types) instead of deep reasoning as to the correctness of such information. Such reasoning is taught and emphasized less and less in the real world...as it takes too much wetwork and time on the user. Easier to go to Utube or a bulletin board forum. IMO.
​

 

Just because those places are easier to go to and get the information from doesn't necessarily mean they accept that information as gospel. In fact, I'd venture that they accept a lot less of it as gospel than older generations accept as gospel from MSM.

In the end, they have a lot more available to them from many more sources. Of course a lot of those sources are complete garbage, but anybody with any reasonable amount of thinking ability can filter out the nonsense. Saying they can't because of the places they get the info from and assuming that's where they go, is a pretty large leap.

We should probably stop, as we've gotten as far from the actual topic at hand as you can. This will degenerate into a measuring contest, and I don't think any of us want to go there.

 

I don't think a worthy discussion of manipulation can be had about any market until there is an agreed to definition of what manipulation means for said market and what is wrong about it. This is never done with silver. Without that, all the arguments for & against are pretty much meaningless.

Technically speaking, anytime someone buys or sells, they have manipulated the market, so if there is something taking place beyond this then it should be spelled out. What you guys need to do is to throw down some gauntlets, draw some lines in the sand, whip out the measuring tape, whatever and define what you are talking about before actually having a debate over it.

 

Thanks for the thread and best wishes in your recovery from the back injury! I could have used your analysis when I was looking for rigorous technical views on gold mining and penny stocks at investors hub. EG Edwards, or at least the office I went to, as well as the discount brokerages could not give me anything specific on those stocks.

 

FROM A WALL STREET PERSPECTIVE LABOR DAY EDITION SEPTEMBER 3, 2012

WOW IS ALL I CAN SAY..............THERE MUST BE SOMEONE LOKING DOWN ON ME AND HEARING ME SAY PRICE IS TOO LOW AND VOLATILITY IS TOO LOW

My last update was Thursday nite, I cant lie, I did end up turning my computer on Thursday and what a tremendous day it was.

Gold and Silver suffered a minor attack right as the Bernanke's commentary was released to the press, as you know his speeches are prepared, and they press gets it as soon as it it released unless you have CGQ or a sophisticated charting system you may have missed it. Options had also had the "3 day weekend taken out becasue as we know the world is perfect and the sotck market is stagnantSilver dropped to 30.30 and Gold to arounf 1645 in the blink of an eye all of this because "Bernanke comments were not deemed frinedly enough" minuted later.............. I will say a higher power came in and all the machines that had sold gold and silver and just about everyt future on the board...........................dont know why, but started covering there shorts, during that fateful hour gold and silver took out there week highs, and in reasonably decent volume especially for the day before labor day weekend they broke the weeks highs and were thn making runs at new multi month highs.............

Labour Day another Key day.................Gold and Silver makets were open for an shortened session today, but on every ohter world exhcange, normal hours................. Silver cleared 32, I mlooking at Dec fututres so I'll call 32.15 the high

Althought today will NOT show up on the charts as the COMEX pit was not open it is still impressive for Silver to keep climbing in cery thin trade and break another dollar handle

With options vols off the lows, but still REDICULOUSLY LOW for what has occurred in GC and SI in the past two weeks, it comes as no surprise................all market makers are short vol across the board, as they deem gold and silver to be stocks??????????????????? When is the last time the SP was up 52.00 in a day? or how about the dow up 600.00???????????? I havn't seen that since 2008

Anyway 1700 Gold for all intensive purposes is here, amazing the OCT 1640c was 24.00 on Friday now 63.00, the OCT 30.25 call in silver was 95 cents, now 2.05 cents not bad one day returns

You will hear all the bubblevisions talking about how gold and silver were up because of possible qe, stimulus blah blah blah.....................or maybe even the old "the euro was up story"................WRONG, WRONG, WRONG..............

Machines algo and trend followers who have fought it, are now officially getting on board and some really stubborn ones are covering there shorts.........

My techincals indicate that us silver and gold bugs will start to encounter some stiff resistance between 32.48 and 33.11 and for gold 1713.2 and 1726.5

Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings are 7:00 est Thurs and 7:45 EST Thurs DRAGHI press conference is 8:30 EST

During the past two weeks silver has tacked on 4 plus dollars and gold about 80 dollars

this is while the sp 500 has been preety range bough 1400-1420, the euro stuck between 1.24-1.26.....soplease dont let the herd tell you that those two have been driving the metals markets, all that has happened is funds have taken prfits in stocks and no put money in precious two weeks ago sp was up 12% on the year, gold about 5% and SILVER WAS FLAT?????????

Today silver is up 14% on the year sp is up 12.5% and gold%

WTI CRUDE OIL IS DOWN1% THIS YEAR BUT THE GRAIN BEING UP 40% OR MORE SHOULD ADD SOME INFLATION

by the way I paid 5.04 cetns for 2 gallons of gas for my motorcycle today it was premium, but none the less 5.00 gas is here

IMF also stated WORLD FOOD PRICES WERE UP 10.5% ON AVERAGE LAST MONTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

One may ask how is crude down and gas up easy.....................

TRADING 101........................ Some of you may know this already, but for those who don't here it is.................. Brent Crude is 116.00 per barrel RBOB is 3.00ish a gallon it moves so quick

The rbob contract minus the wti contract is the crack the "r crack" meaning rbob crack spread it is the profit margin or premium differential between the rbob contract and the crude contract

RBOB is up about 30% this year...................... that is what we all use so traders have since 2008 just moved more of the spec money into RBOB and BRENT also Heating oil is also a proxy for diesel fuel you may ask why do they still quote heating oil.............about 5% of the US uses it still majority (95%) obviously is natty (gas)............

The governments have less control over the refined products, so they step in less and with Brent it is generally a WORSE grade of crude than WTI, but since it is used in more places around the world, and the rest of the world is used to paying 10-12.00 per gallon or more, traders just use brent now..........

little investing info energy my second specialty

PERSONAL BULLION INVESTMENT

Wife did it again estate sale got a run of canadian proof sets 63,64,65,66,67.............100.00...................also a run from newer days..................97,98,99.............100.00 for those

As ststed earlier I no longer by silver coins she buys them all and if I must say does a FANTABULOUS JOB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE REAL REASON GOLD AND SILVER CAUGHT A MAJOR BID ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.........................

First and foremost, those of you who have read all my writing, I have stated every time I thought price was too low at 28.00 is and 1600 is and option vols were too low.............option vols have held there lows, but based on the movement we are getting 14% in gold vol and 25 % in silver are way too low......................for those knew to options, an option vol should be about the percentage you think the underlying sill move in a given year, obviously the nearer term options trade at lowere vols as all the machines sell that and buy further out, when metals move like they have bid the machines get killed as the end up short futures and long junk calls like June 2013 2200c in gold or something like that. At the money one month options in silver are less than one dollar and in gold less thas 25.00 with the BOE, ECB and FED in the next ten days, IT MAKES NO SENSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Realize you now have many machines long in these markets who have no idea why that can be good and bad, good as the price has come up to a respectable level..............Platinum still ABSURDLY CHEAP..................Gold SIlver ratio did form the rounded bottom I spoke of at 58:1 and is now 53:1.................nice five unit move....................... The third metal which has been used as money in the past by EVERY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD HAS BEEN LEFT IN THE DUST........................ COPPER NOW IS WAY TOO LOW PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you know how to play options with vols where they are and price where it is in GC and SI you can create a strategy at low cost which could be very favorable for you whether you think up or down

NOW THE REASON I WORTE THIS WAS TO INFORM, STATE SOME FACT, AND GIVE SOME OF MY OWN OPINIONS........................... I trade proffessionally and simply see what I see, I am not a scam, and I dont want your money.......................I want all the Gold an silver bugs to profit from the new goevernment actions


FRIDAY KEY STORY OF WHY GOLD AND SILVER WENT UP.................................not fed, not euro, not stocks, not promise of qe, .........................well then what was it??????????


I WILL TELL YOU...................

Queitly while the media tells you one thing, the ECB and Spanish governement created a bank in the wee hours of the morning on Friday, that will be fully financed by the ECB and will be allowed to borrow as much as need to buy up all the crap floating around Spain mainly MBS's (mortgagbacked securities) CDO's(collaterlized debt obligations), and Spanish paper...................did any of you see ther SPANISH TEN YEAR YIELD GET OVER 7% FRIDAY, you can be honest................most of us were with our family or watching out favorite precious metal gold or silver have a a 50 dollar reversal or in silvers case a 5% reversal..............

Why is this Spanish bank story so big yet no one will talk about it.............................. The goverenments have no where to go on short rates unless they eant to start paying people to take money..................yes they can do more QE, but that was so last year and the year before........................ they need new and creative ways to pump money in the system WITHOUT SAYING QE........................... so voila, create a bank whose sole purpose is to buy crap and get rates down in a certain area,.....................if this works therw ill be no real way to tell how much the bank has put in the system as you cant track every loan, but that is the reason why we bought calls on the gold and silver dip...........................This bank im guessing will buy 100's OF BILLIONS OF EUROS IN JUNK DEBT.................................If it works and get borrowing costs down, expecta to see them in all of the PIIGS, China, UK, India, US, blah blah blah...........................that is the real story of the rally you can believe me or not

OTHER NOTES, OPINIONS, CONCLUSIONS................................ Since the governemets look at the stock markets as the economy and many of them have rallied huge since june and july I do not think any QE will be announced by the ECB or FED, the BOE may announce something small 100 billion pounds or so(isn't it sad when we say 100 billion is small?)

Gold is about 25 euros from the all time high if it clears it I hope more people start beleiving me that the Euro and Gold are not correlated, also Gold in Rupees (Indian) is very near an all time high as well................If Gold clears thouse and holds for more than a week then that will be a big sign that 2 HUGE economies are buying Gold.............It is not the US driving this market this time it is everyone else.........

LAST BUT NOT LEAST.............BE CAREFUL AT THESE PRICES, I thin kwe all know that silver esepecially can go way way further still 18.00 off its nomimal high and that with zero inflation cost............... but there are a lot of machines in and they dont care about you or me, they are there to take your money 2 weeks ago i was praying we could get thru 30.00 sooner, now Im wondering in we will get under it again any time soon.............

Dont know, but I can tell you the 1550 gold put and the 27 silver put are VERY VERY CHEAP AND IF YOU WANT A CHEAP INSURANCE POSITION AGAINST LONG Papes Gold or Silver they offer good protection, you can even sell 1 of the 25c in silver to buyabout 5 or 6 of the 27 you give up a little on the upside to be able to pick up a ton if we go down...........just my thought

TRADERS ARE BACK FORM VACATION, MANY CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS IN THE NEXT TEN DAYS BE READY FOR ANYTHING..................... For disclosure I own both calls and Puts in SIlver and Gold, and own quite a bit of physical silver

Most sincerely,
Thank you for your time and reading this huge article, I felt it was important..................... Markets reopens in 41 minutes so I will check in with you guys later this week.................

 

I will look for a condensed version in the future.

Frankly, I have heard talk of a DOW 400 after the final bubble bursts and the sky will be the limit for gold and silver then as the Aden sisters, Howard Ruff, and others have been telling us for years. I wouldn't be surprised if we see entire shows of Mad Money with Kramer devoted to certified and type gold as investments. :hail::thumb: