From a wall street perspective

qsilver, thanks for the updates on your thoughts and ideas. I'm reading and I like it.

Don't let the naysayers get to you, I don't see any of them putting up their thoughts and defending them, so until they do that, just ignore them.

 

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Ted Butler has been a trader for over 30 years. If you knew square one about him you would know that and not incorrectly infer that he doesn't understand what a short position is without substantiating why you even think that. It's obvious to any educated person that you don't know what you're talking about. You can go ahead and disbelieve everything he writes without researching it for yourself, but don't try to force your ignorance upon others.

Silver is a good buy at $45 to anyone who understands that the dollar is backed by debt and the ability for the government to pay that debt off by creating more dollar based debt. It's like trying to put out a fire with more fire. Gold and silver are the only extinguishers of debt, and will ultimately be the beneficiaries of our current monetary policy.

We have already been around the block about why the SLV is not truly 100% backed by silver. Yes every contract has a bar allocated, but not every bar is unique. Why you continue to assert that it has 100% backing even though we already proved that they are 10 million ounces shy using the prospectus numbers is beyond me.

 

FROM A WALL STREET PERSPECTIVE

All the talk from Sunday nights Hurricane Isaac has diminished although refiners and drillers in the gulf had and will have the week off the European open highs of Sunday night/Monday morning in Gasoline, Gold and Silver all occurred in the same 60 min candle and should remain interim tops fir this week

Option volatility got crushed From Monday morning until this AM, as the machines sold the month 1 vols into the ground in anticipation of a large seller who usually comes in and roolls his options

hs presence was not there today so today might have been the near dated option vol low in the PM's 11ish in Gold and 22ish in Silver

Vol shorts are betting Gold will not move 25 dollars in the next month(IE 1660 call or put is ~25 dollars)

Vol shorts are betting silver will not move 90 cents in the same duration(IE 30.75p or call is 90 cents)

I will leave those opinions to those of you who still read this

doesn't make much sense to me but then again im not a machines

No problems have been solves down in ZA, but the same machine that sold plat at 1390 was buying it almost 200 higher and getting long on monday night so they did get burned on that one

still no real reason for pl to be so far under gc but thats the world we live in

September has historically, and I want to note I am not a huge believer in seasonal patterns, especially in markets which clearly have higher powers in them and markets that dont trade on fundamentals
any way worth noting that September has historically

Machines had the largest open INTEREST EVER in SHORT PLAT two weeks ago, that number has been drastically cut

Plat will not be under 1400 again

Silver will not be in the 26 again

Gold will not see 1530's for a long long time

UNLESS........

VERY VERY IMPORTANT IN ONE WEEK FROM NOW THE BOE AND ECB MEET (NEXT THURS) if they do not back up there words of all this money printing pumping etc there is now A LOT of air in many markets there are long spec machines in gold small in silver and a few in plat that have no reason why.................they will use a dramatic sell off in the EU to say that is why gold and silver went down..............doesnt matter why its just how they think

If BOE AND ECB come with a TRILLION PLUS number it should awaken those who mised he first little leg and GC should take out 1735 and Silver challende 32.52-33.03 this is HUGE resistance in Silver if you guys recall Silver spent a lotof time in the latter part of last year and early part of this year machines will be buying, but there will be guys who will be trying to get out for even

Following week you have the FED.....................YOU CAN QUOTE ME ON THIS.........THEY WILL NOT ANNOUNCE QE............THEY WILL DO NOTHING.................But markets will buy in because they will keep the carrot dangled in front of them with the quotes......
"We see possible weakness in the economy, it is slowing to a point where we are no longer comfrotable, we will act when neccessary, blah, blah, blah"

At this point in the cycle you shoudl see a broad based sell off but with the election coming I am sure that the Fed will think of some more tasty words to use than I to keep the assets prices juiced

This is not a scam

I am not looking for money

and if you think my ideas are true, falsse or none of the above, they probably fall into one of those categories

SUMMARY:

Years lows have been made

Options vols contiue to be excessively cheap

PL is a wild animal i took my profits and am out

Silver trading only a few calls and a few puts too

Gold zero

I foyu know about options and have an opinion in gold or silver with the BOE ECB and US FED all in this option cycle vol should not be near a 6 year low you can get paid large on very small bets


PERSONAL BULLION INVESTING..........................Picked up come Canada proof silver sets at about 25.00basis silver, bought a bunch of old aussie sterling florins for 8.25 each, bought some canadian junk silver basis 24.00

Best Wishes,
Have a safe and Happy Labor Day,
Sincerely
QSilver

 

I'm still reading all your updates and thanks.

Can you please clarify the part I quoted. What I think you're trying to say and what you're saying may be 2 drastically different things and I want to be sure.

Thanks again.

 

This is only for the folks who don't mind spending 10 minutes reading about their investment. Ted Butler claims that there is not enough silver in SLV to cover all outstanding shares. Thats is just not true and here is the lastest 10 Q to prove it. This is not for folks who just want to argue without reading and learning


http://us.ishares.com/content/strea.../slv_10Q_q2_2012.pdf&mimeType=application/pdf

Its all there. So why would the Silver Stackers Guru be so wrong. It is simple, he has him own adgenda and does not have you best interest at heart. He wants to sell newsletters at $400 a year, he wants you to believe he knows things other don't. If he get only a thousand stackers to buy his newsletter, he is getting $400.000 a year requardless of wha silver does. He has one more trick up his sleeve, when the price of silver goes south, he claims it is all manipulation. A manuipulation that only he knows about. The problem with that is of course, if there was silver manipulation, why did Plat, Gold and Palladium crash too. Sounds like a PM selloff to me and not silver manipulation, and your got that info for free.

Mike

 

Another thing,

This was pulled off of Teds page

ABOUT US

[TD="bgcolor: #f2f2f2"]
After publishing unique precious metals commentary on the Internet since 1996, I have decided to offer a subscription service. The main reason for the change is that I felt somewhat restricted by my weekly format. It is my intention to publish some commentary at least twice a week.
The commentary will include detailed analysis of the Commitment of Traders Report, regulatory developments, supply/demand considerations, and topics of interest to investors in precious metals, with an emphasis on silver. Subscribers will also be able to ask questions.
The service is intended to be source of market information for serious observers of the silver and gold markets, delivered in a no-nonsense manner. No bells and whistles, just unique and valuable content. Always outside the box.
Please note - this is not intended as investment advice and I am not an investment advisor. The service is solely for informational purposes
Ted Butler


[/TD]
The guy admits he is not an investment advisor and the the info is provided for info only.

Well isn't that special.....

Also, no this is not something all investment advisors do to cover their butts. The real ones admit it is investment advice that is to be used for investment. The caveat beig, they clain no responsiblilty and investment advice requires everyone to do their DD.

Another interesting point, I can not any info anywhere about MR. Butlers personel holdings in silver. That is a big old Red flag. When I was purchasing Jim Kramers news letter, he was very open about his positions and the amount he held. The same with the Motley fool. If anyone can fine anything about about MR. Butlers personel holdings. please post and site the source. IF the info is not availavle I am sure we can figure out why.

Mike

 

I'm sorry, but there is no doubt that silver is manipulated. I don't really like the cheerleaders and their cries of the "cartel" and "banksters" are responsible for every drop of a penny, in fact its redundance is boring and borderline ludicrous. To say and defend that there is no manipulation what so ever is just as ludicrous, along the lines of Abe Lincoln still being president and our economy is doing just fine.

 

mikem, I never said Ted was right about everything, but as I have stated many times now, and you can attest to, the SLV is 10 million ounces short by their own standards. That doesn't even take into account the potential for reusing of bars. Demonizing Mr. Butler changes nothing. I am not here to defend him, but dragging him through the mud is a far cry from disproving anything. You are free to shoot the messenger if you like, but if you want to kill an idea you need to shoot the message.

 

Look at this financial report, it is the latest and very close to spot on, if you don't want to read it that is Ok, it is posted for those who do want to read and learn. The share and the Oz line up. Keep in mind though there are slight more shares that OZ.'s because a share cost less than 1 oz. so you each share is obviously backed by slightly less than one oz.

The reason I brought brough Mr. Butler into the discussion is someone else quoted his statements as facts and they were not.

 

Hi Peace,

In the broadest sense, well most markets are manipulated to some point, but I do not see anything substanial here. I see no proof, I do not even see a strong argument. If you see it otherwise, please post you findings and sources. Also, by how much do you feel the silver market has been manipilated?

Mike

 

I'll pass. I much prefer the perception that I'm a tinfoil hat wearer....it seems to be working just fine so far.

 

I wonder if any have read this piece. It does compare PSLV to SLV and spot price. Of course one would be foolish to take from a person without read the prospectus for each. SLV prospectus is easy to find with google, but try to find PSLV, and when you do let me know. Quite possibly you will have to go through a familiar firm. Especially read the part as to why you could short SLV, but not PSLV, it sounds good but it is not ,IMO.

http://kiddynamitesworld.com/on-misinterpreting-pslvs-premium/

 

Sorry Peace, I need to call foul on that. That is an outrageous statement that the silver market is being manipulated to be offered up with nothing to back it up.

Also I know that's Mr. Butler's point of view, but he didn't seem to mention it until after his followers lost near half their investments. I read his story but could find nothing credible there. I really hope you change your mind and offer up you proof. If not for me, at least for the other readers of the board.

Mike

 

I guess you can get it if you email here, or already in...

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1494728/000110465912048495/a12-16061_4ex99d1.htm


Sorry Mike, I'm not linking any more of my special tinfoil hat brigade stuff on here. All I'll say is it's my belief that it's manipulated, not to the extent that some like to cry from mountain peaks, but I still believe it is.

 

QSILVERS ANSWERS A FEW QUESTIONS...................

I am off for the long weekend so I dont have charts or analysis with me, I will give the best answers from my personal knowledge and experience

Mid August To early October has historically has been the best month performance wise for Gold and Silver over the last 25 years

I can not predict the future, especially with the current IMPLOSION IN EUROPE that no one is talking about........Greece Greece Greece.............They DEFAULTED ONCE ALREADY.................ANOTHER WILL HAPPEN WILL HAPPEN BY END OF 2013

Spain, DOENST NEED A BAILOUT?????????? Yes there borrowing costs are well off the all time high yields in the 7.00%'s but why have Spanish Banks taken out over 500 BILLION in near zero loans this year form the ECB

European Parliaments are for the most part retuning from vacations, Traders in the States will be back full force on Tuesday

Silver manipulated? As a trader you cant trade like that, but I have seen enough massive takedowns, Im not talking about the Grandaddy on that fatefuly Sunday nite at 6:01 EST when Silver dropped 6.00 in 10 minutes.............How about the day of the "KNIGHT Mare" last month when TGW or in Traderville Traders Gone Wild a certain frims bought and sold stocks up and down some 2% in certain instances in 15 minutes????? fundamentals? I think not.................I bet you guys idnt see that same day on the SI open Silver got rocked for 75 cents in the first 3 minutes of "pit trade", PL 39.00 in the EXACT same time frame down to the very same second check your charts if you dont believe me...............there have been numerous blatant 3-5 selloffs in Silver that go do not get investigated or questioned...............When is the Last tiem you Saw the Dow drop 600 point in 5 minutes.................oh yeah there was one time a few years ago they called it the"FLASH CRASH".............more machines meean more of these will go on on a regular basis

So the Silver sellers can and will continue to do this until enough people actually take delivery if my math is right with roughly 200 million oz in COMEX stocks and price at 30 and change you need 6 billion dollars sounds like a lot right thatts only 1% of what Spain has borrowed from the ECB, or in trader term its only 40,000 contracts


If a fund wanted to do it, the COMEX would not let them they'd make up a reason why you cant deliver that much, but if 1000 funds ask to take delivery of 6 million dollars each they would HAVE TO THATS ONLY 40 CONTRACTS EACH!!!!!!!! I can say I have have positions on of much larger magnitude than that, you want to stir up a can of worms think about it, that is veryy possible..............NOT LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE

SLV and GLD............................. ARE NOT FULLY BACKED 100% BY PHYSICAL BULLION......................they do own large amounts of silver and gold, but they also buy futures contracts most of the time so they do have the expose................Since there inception GLD and SLV have and will continue to be huge buyesr and supporters of the market.................if you really want to know when GLD and SLV are moving there positions look at the near dated futures open interest, when a big chunk moves to the next month you know one is"rolling" how else do you explain the fact that the September contract, now deliverable or Cash was tradin ten cents below the Dec future for the last month.

PSLV..............It is Eric Sprott's closed end Silver fund...................He buys bullion and holds it for you...............you can take delivery of it, but it trades at such a large NAV generally 20% or more, you really wouldnt want to

Many MORONS have tried to short PSLV and buy SI futures or SLV and think they have and arb on...............YOU CANT DELIVER METAL INTO A CLOSED END FUND..............YOU CANT SHORT SLV AND WALK TO THEM WITH BARS.......................

YOU CAN SHORT SI AND DELIVER BARS, THEY HAVE TO NUMBER AND LICENESED BY ONE OF A FES ACCEPTED ASSAYERS...............you really would NOT want to do this as I have never tried, but considering how hard it is to take delivery, I cant imagine going the other way

SO if you dont know much about PSLV..................Eric Sprott is a BILLIONAIRE metals investor guru from Canada super smart................PSLV is one of his babies it trades well over NAV because people trust him and know he actually goes buys the bullion then starts the fund

PSLV trades at a similar premium to many government bullion programs........higher than eagles, less than brittanias..........you guys know more about coins than I so I wont go into details there

I hope some of this helps I pormised my wife no charts or trade talk til Monday at 6:00 pm est...........so if my numbers are off slightly, bare with me

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY LABOR DAY,
REMEMBER THIS WEEKEND IS TO HONOUR THE WORKERS AND TO TAKE A DAY OFF,
BEST WISHES,
SINCERELY,
QSILVER

 

Mike, you're welcome to read this.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/harvey-organ-get-physical-gold-silver/73933?page=0#comments

They basically state that between heavyweight buyers, arbitrage and not comex and spot is used, so what does that tell you?

 

Physical delivery of silver from a wall street perspective

Delivery of silver was not that uncommon amongst traders in the late 1990 and early 2000' when silver was around 5.00

I have done it

FYI NO COMEX SILVER CONTRACT IS EXACTLY 5000 OZ

you will get 5 bars each will weigh between 950 oz and 1060 oz

you could technically get a little over or under, but they usually try to find bars that equal out

they are dirty, tarnished and look like crap

THEY DO NOT LOOK LIKE THE NICE SHINY 100 OZ's you see at you local coin or bullion shop

The Delivery Charge is abut 25.00 per contract, that get you a slip of paper saying you have 5000 oz in a COMEX wharehouse

If you want to actually get the bars, you have to pay additional funds for allkinds of silly costs
then you need to either go to one of the wharehouses with your slip and notify them you are coming, or you since it is with your local broker call him and have him arrange an armored truck guard to deliver it to you that will we around 1000.00 depending on where you live, if you are in NY less if you are anywhere else arouns that price so all in all it cost you roughy 20-25 cents per oz to take delivery

just thought that was worthy info of sharing as well

 

Of course, arbitrage always happen, and things like block trades are done. This eliminate spreads, and squeezes an extra quarter maybe, but the vibe I get from this board, is it is common belief that the price of silver is held down many, many dollars because the big money wants to keep it low.

If that is not your opinion, fantastic, but for any that think that may be true, I propose this simple theory. With all the traders, and professionals that do this full time for a living, does it really make sense that a few folks from CT who read the Internet, and follow the likes of guys like Ted Butler really have a leg up on the pros? If the real pro's believed silver was kept artificially low, they would be all over it, because eventually, it must reach equilibrium. Just something to think about. YMMV

Mike

 

What if the pros know that if they make a big move, the big dogs in the market will hand them their lunch? Maybe, just maybe they know that playing in a snake pit is bad idea.

 

Not thinking that, the professional traders, I knew, well let's just say, they are not big on fear. Maybe we can let QSilver can weigh in on that.