From a wall street perspective

Thank you. I need to find a few.:hail:

 

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FROM A WALL ST PERSPECTIVE

machines love tradin Plat gold
and silver gold
Plat knocking on 1500 had machines who were short looking for better value hence silver
also the ratio as stated is forming a mjor bttom gold vs silver at 58:1 its currently at 56.5:1 so it has quite a bit more room, silver has been stuck

all the slv options guys had ther calls go out worthless on friday
the players in the short term options were forced out as vol made a seven year low

silver need another strong day or two to attract more short to cover its barely outside of it recent range, gold need to start closing over 1630, 1640 also

then from this trajectory they are cheap enough when the SHXX hit the fan they can be "safe havens" again

also why canadian proof sets and panama balboas, wife does my shopping for me at estate sales she bot rolls of UNC 1947, 1952, 1961, 1962 gem quality beautiful coins....... wouldnt you guys pay 5.00 each?
and the canadian proof sets, i think they are stupid cheap she paid 25.00 for a nice selection of dates 1961-1967 heavy on 64,65,66,67
i tell here if shee spending my money on other stuff you gotta pick up coins for me when you see em................... so she did well again, truthly i trade and she buys the stuff for me

Qsilver

 

Sounds like a good match:thumb:

 

Although it may not matter to others, I didn't care for the angle of the increase of PM ( again, I feel related to the Euro corresponding swing up and the USD$ decrease) yesterday and today, so I sold off some PM ( gold) based option calls to hedge some. If the angle is similar overnight and tomorrow, I will sell deeper. There are also in my opinion several political fears intensifying. I see no long term reason yet for Gold or silver retaining this level, IMO.

Jim

 

FROM A WALL STREET PERSPECTIVE

WELL, I THINK WE CAN CHALK ONE UP FOR THE GOOD GUYS (qualitative traders, coin collectors, pm holders)

AGAIN THOUGH, ANOTHER WEEK WHERE NOTHING REALLY CHANGED EXCEPT THE ACTUAL PRICE

I THINK ANY OF YOU THAT HAVE BEEN READING MY LITTLE BLOGS/POSTS, AND LISTENED TOT HE TRADE IDEAS HAVE PROBABLY DONE QUITE WELL AS THE PRICE AND VOLATILITY HAVE BOTH RISEN

IT STARTED ONE WEEK AGO LAST SUN NITE/MON MORNING WHERE SOME MACHINE TRIED TO TAKE THE PM'S LOWER FOR NO APPARENT REASON, THIS TIME THEY GOT CAUGHT

YOU WILL HEAR BUBBLEVISIONS AND OTHER MAINSTREAM MEDIA OUTLETS TELL YOU THAT THE METALS ROSE DUE TO WEAKNESS IN THE DOLLAR THAT IS STILL BS

THE EURO MOVED A WHOPPING TWO CENTS THIS WEEK

SILVER WAS UP ABOUT 11% FROM LOW TO HIGH THIS WEEK, GOLDA SOLID 3.5%, AND PLATINUM CONTINUED CLOSING ITS ABSURD DISCOUNT TO GOLD NARROWING TO ALMOST 100 DOLLARS UNDER ON THURSDAY

NOW THE ONLY THING LEFT TO PARTICIPATE IN THE HOPE RALLY IS COPPER

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EUROPEAN GOLD CLOSED AT 1336 PER OZ AND ITS YEAR ITS AROUND 1339, AND ITS ALL TIME HIGH IS 1368

GOLD AND SILVER VOLS HAVE MANAGED TO BOUNCE AND HOLD OFF OF THERE LOWS, YET IT IS STILL ASTOUNDING THAT NEAR TERM VOL IS ONLY 24% IN SILVER AND 14% IN GOLD EVEN LESS IF YOU WANTED TO TAKE A GAMBLE IN THE WEEKLY OPTIONS...............OPTION VOL IN THE METALS COMPLEXIS STILL WAY TOO LOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING YOU ARE NEARING AN ALL TIME HIGH IN EUROPEAN GOLD

THIS RALLY CONTINUED TO TAKE THE LEAD OFF OF PLATINUM, PLATINUM WAS THE ONE THAT KICKSTARTED THIS WHOLE MOVE, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SECOND LEG UP DID REALLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE FED MINUTES WHE THEY SAID "MORE STIMULUS MAY BE COMING SOON", I AM NOT COMPLAINING THIS WEEK AS THIS TIME THE METLAS WERE THE CLEAR BENEFICIARY OF THE FURTHER STIMULUS HOPE.

MANY WILL TELL YOU SILVER WAS STRONGEST THIS WEEK AND TECHNICALLY FROM LOW TO HIGH THEY ARE CORRECT, BUT SILVER IS STILL ONLY 30.70 SO 6.00 PLUS SHY OF ITS DOLLAR HIGH AND 24.50 IN EU ABOUT 2.50 SHY OF ITS EUROPEAN HIGH

LUCKY FOR US SILVER OWNERS THAT THE MACHINES FINALLY LOST CONTROL ON THE SELL SIDE AND WE WERE ABLE TO RETAKE THE 28.33 LEVEL AND NOW THE 30 LEVEL

THIS ALL HAPPENS ON A WEEKS WHERE THE GENERIC US STOCK MARKET MADE A YEAR HIGH ALSO, BUT CLOSED DOWN ON THE WEEK, BRINGING INTO PLAY THE TALK OF A MAJOR TRIPLE TOP AREA 1425 ISH FROM EARLIER THIS YEAR AND LATE LAST SUMMER

TO NO SURPRISE GOLD AND SILVER STONGEST WEEK COMES ON A WEEK WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE FEAR COMING BACK TO THE MARKET AS THE VIX WHICH REALLY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH VOL ANYMORE, MORE OF WHERE THE SP 500 IS PRICED. THE VIX BOUNCES OFF 6 YEAR LOWS AS WELL.

OPTIONS EXPIRATION FOR THE SEPTEMBER SERIES IS ON TUESDAY AND ALL OF THE FUTURES TRADERS WILL BE MOVING THERE SEP SILVER OUT TO DECEMBER, SEP SILVER IS TRADING AT A 9 CENT DISCOUNT TO DEC, THIS IS CURRENTLY THE WIDEST AND ONE SEQUENCE FUTUES SPREAD HAS TRADED TO THE UPCOMING MONTH SINCE LAST DECEMBER. GOLD ALL THE TRADERS ARE ALREADY IN DEC SO THAT PRICE WILL NOT CHANGE, BUT LATER THIS WEEK ON BUBBLEVISION YOU SHOULD NOTE THAT THE SILVER PRICE WILL MAGICALLY INCREASE TEN CENTS OVER NITE

ON THE INFLATION FRONT WTI TRAED ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY, WHILE BRENT REAMINED STRONG, BUT DIDNT TAKE OUT LAST WEEKS HIGH
CORN STILL NEAR ITS ALL TIME HIGH BUT HAS NOT TAKE OUT ITS ALL TIME HIGH SET TWO WEEKS AGO, BEANS CONTINUE TO BE THE AG STORY AS THEY ARE TRADING AT HISTORIC HIGHS IN EVRY MAJOR CURRENCY AROUND THE GLOBE

SO IN SUMMARY, VOLS LOOKED LIKE THEY MAY HAVE BOTTOMED, THE STOCK MARKETS IS LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR TOP IS FORMING, ANOTHER PRAYER OUT OF THE US FED THAT "THEY MAY ADD STIMULUS SOON" PROMPTED THIS RALLY

GOOD FOR ALL OF US AS ONE OF YOU NOTED THAT AS FELLOW COIN COLLECTORS WE ALL HAVE HOLDINGS IN THE PHYSICAL METALS WITH THE VELOCITY AND TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOVE, YOU WILL NOW HAVE ALGOS AND FUNDS BUYING DIPS INSTEAD OF SELLING RALLIES, YOU WILL ALSO HEAR THE ARGUMENT THAT GOLD AND SILVER ARE SAFE HAVENS, WHICH THEY ULITMATELY ARE AND HAVE BEEN

AS STATED SINCE I STARTED MY LITTLE THREAD, THE MAJOR "SMART" MONEY HAS BEEN BUYING LARGE BLOCKS OF CALLS WHILE METALS WERE STUCK IN THE 26-28 RANGE AND THE 1550-1630 RANGE

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 101 SAYS RESISTANCE WILL NOW BECOME SUPPORT

WILL SILVER TRADE UNDER 30 THIS YEAR AGAIN..............ABSOLUTELY
WILL IT TRADE 26.08 PROBABLY NOT

i DO NOT THINK GOLD WILL TRADE 1530 AND MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO EVEN GET UNDER 1600

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO DID BUY THE PLATINUM UNDER OR NEATH 1400 SALUD!!!! FOR HOSE OF YOU WHO TRIED A CALL SPREAD IN SILVER EXCELLENT!!!!!

WITH VOLS AT THES LOW LEVELS, I CANT EMPHASIZE ENOUGH THAT IT IS MUCH EASIER TO OWN CALLS AND SLEEP AT NITE THAT TONS OF FUTURES

CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT LAST FRIDAY THE SEPTEMBER 28 CALL WAS 25 CENTS? ALL OF THE ALGO MACHINES TRULY BELEIVED THAT IS WAS NOT POSSIBLE FOR SILVER TO MOVE UP 35 CENTS IN TWO WEEKS???????????????????????

THE GOLD CALL PURCHASE THAT WAS MOST FRIENDLY WAS THE SEP 1625C FOR 6.00 IT GOT YOU LONG ON THE BREAKOUT AND IF WE STAYED IN THE RANGE OH WELL THEN 6.00 DOLLARS YOU LOSE IN GOLD WHICH I DONT THINK IS A WHOLE LOT

THERE REALLY ARE NO INTENTIONS FOR QE III, EUROPE WILL NEED TO STEP IN AND BUY WEAK EU MEMBER BONDS, THE FED MAY COME OUT WITH SOME ABSURDITY OF BUYING MBS'S (MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES), BUT AS FOR QE III DONT PLAN ON IT EVER IT DOESN OTHING BUT INFLATE COMMODITY PRICES AND PROP UP THE STOCK MARKET

NOT MUCH WAS MENTIONED ABOUT CHINAS LARGEST LIQUIDITY INJECTION INTO THERE SYSTEM "EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" ON TUESDAY................I KNOW THAT WAS ANOTHER CATALYST IN THIS PM MOVE, BUT YOU WONT HEAR ABOUT THAT ON TV

THE INTERIM TARGETS I SET A FEW WEEKS ABOUT WERE 31.50 SILVER ANFD 1690 GOLD BOTH GOT VERY CLOSE SO TRADING WISE POSITIONS WERE REDUCED ON FRIDAY

THE PHYSICAL HOLDINGS IE MY OWN WERE UNCHANGED, WELL ACTUALLY MY WIFE MANAGED TO PICK UP A 5 LOF OF THE CANADA 1997 STERLING PROOF SET FOR 100.00 (FOR ALL 5)

IF YOU ARE TRADING THE METALS AS WELL AS HOLDING THEM LOOK FOR AN INTERIM HIGH TO BE MADE AROUND THE EUROPEAN OPEN AT SOME DAY THIS WEEK (THATS 3:00 AM EASTERN TIME FYI) METALS WILL TRADE WAY UP, AND BY THE TIME THE US IS IN 9:00 AM EASTERN THEY MAY BE DOWN SLIGHTLY. THEN YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR NEW RANGE IS.......IM STILL GUESSING 1690 SOMETHING AND 31.50 ISH WILL BE THOSE LEVELS, NUT AS A TRADER IF YOU ARE ONLY LOOKING FOR 10-15 IN GOLD THERE IS NOT MUCH REASON TO HAVE A LOT ON

I WILL FOLLOW UP WITH YOU GUYS LATET THIS WEEK, BUT AS I SAID NOTHING FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED EXCEPT THIS TIME THE METLAS DID SOME CATCHING UP TO THE REST OF THE MARKETS

 

Regardless of technical analysis, the Big Money demands that the stock marked be "propped up" until after the elections; then, look out!

 

Speaking of fundamentals in a different vein. An 11 mile stretch of the Mississippi River located at Greenville, Mississippi has been closed to barge traffic. Corp of Engineers are surveying area for dredging but low water levels and impeded traffic up and down the entire river system is predicted to remain through October. Bungie, Cargill and others have issued a general notice to farmers that they will only accept only current contracted grain at their elevator operations which rely on the waterway for shipping. When speaking about contracted grain- I am talking about forward contracts - not CME futures and by current meaning no early delivery for which a storage charge would be incurred. The low water level is effecting all commodoties that rely on the waterway for shipping (such as scrap steel, ore, coal and etc.).

 

gsilver007,

I like your posts. Can I ask you not to use all caps? It does make it hard to read for us old folks:yes:

 

I'll second that - it's good insider-insight, but skip the CAPS.

 

Could you give more details in your vision of the machines trying to take over. Like references other than obvious gold sites. Why then did the metals rise? again references if it wasn't in response to the EUR/USD ?

Please excuse my skepticism, but many times here, we have had some posters with similar m.o. and advice/predictions that eventually worked into "selling/buying opportunity scams". No offense intended.

Jim

 

I think by machines he means computer (algorithms) designed to counter short-term trends, i.e., inflate or suppress the price of PM futures. This sort of thing is reported daily, here's a typical look: [caseyresearch.com on August 24]

"Late yesterday evening the updated short positions for GLD and SLV were posted on the shortsqueeze.com Internet site. The short position in SLV declined by 7.34%...or 1,084,700 shares/ounces. There are still 13.7 million troy ounces...426.1 tonnes...required to be deposited in SLV to cover all the outstanding shares that don't have physical metal backing them.

The short position in GLD shares declined by 15.08%...or 3,279,000 shares, which equals 327,900 ounces. GLD is still owed about 1.85 million ounces of gold...57.45 tonnes...to cover all its outstanding shares sold short.

There was a smallish sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday. They sold another 2,000 ounces of gold eagles, along with another 100,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 23,500 ounces of gold eagles...6,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,121,000 silver eagles. The ratio of silver ounces to gold ounces sold for the month so far, is just under 71:1..."

==========

And I might add that those of you who think GLD and SLV are backed 100% by bullion - you are hopelessly naive.

 

Doug , have you actually read the prospectus for GLD or SLV?
​

 

ANSWERS

Sure I can use normal capitalization procedures

Second, Personally I invest my own money in precious metals and stocks, and all I have sited sice I started this were specific trade opportunities. As noted, by being a coin collector all of us are inherent bulls as we all own some form of Gold, Platinum or Silver.

I trade and invest for a living, have successfully for more than 20 years. I would never say or post something I myself was not doing or interested in.

I would never ask for money or try a scam that way.

As for the rise in the metals???????

In the PM markets, we, everyone has always looked for a decent why................... Computers (algos) dont ask why, they just do

As for precious metals sites, I couldnt really name any off the top of my head as all of my research and trade ideas come from me, if you must know, different media outlets have often times asked me for my opinion and I have given it to them you may have even read it on a news site.

As for the media wanting you to think the "US dollar was weak so gold was up or the euro was weak so gold was up, its all been BS for many many years now." The last major country to be Gold backed was Switzerland in 2000.

If you want my technical analysis 101, due this.................look at Crude and the stock market......................two things that should theoretically have no correllation to PM's they have risen 13% S and P and 17-20% depending on which crude you look at, wti or brent, MORE IMPORTANTLY GASOLINE, DIESEL, NAT GAS, AND AGS IE EVERYTHING WE HAVE TO USE DAILY, are up between 25 and 54%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! respectively since June...............

On Monday of this week, Gold and Silver were unchanged from there june levels 28 ish and 1625ish........ they have been building tighter and tighter coils..................ie ranges smaller option vols have moved way lower and lower and whichever way they went there would be some force................I will talk silver since I trade more of that..........................Mondays low 27.80 ish.................Fridays High 30.80ish..............nice 10%up week...................puts it back where it was in May

Now technical analysis 102............................... pull up a chart or the indian rupee, the euro, the pound, whichever currency you like.....................overlay that vs gold or silver

You will notice that over th past 10 years and especially the past 3 the rolling correlation between the Dollar and Gold has declined greatly..................... no currency is backed by anything..................gold is quoted in whatever curreny of the country you live..........................On the SFX (shanghai) yuan, BFX(bombay) rupees..............................If you live in Italy, France, Germany etc, Euros.....................

Gold and Silver will always show the stongest gains in currencies that have the most fear, this year India and the Euro Zone.

Also just so you know when you hear bubblevisons or PM websites are telling you why gold or silver were up..................... guess what, anyone can monday morning quarterback.................. you can make up any reason you like in you mind why gold and silver rose last week..............all that matter was they did, you had algos andtrend follower revers platinum short to long only took a 200 dollar move in ten days, shot covering insilver started at 28.30 ish and continued the whole week, plus machines are now dip buyers of all metals................................and no it wasnt weaknsess in the dollar................fyi the "dollar" is a cacth phrase for the dollar index...... in trader the "dixie" because of its symbol code of DXE. The DXE is made up up very few currencies other garbage currencies............Euro, Yen, Pound,Cad, Swedish Krona, might be a couple more..............the Euro is 67% and the yen about 15% and the Pound round out 8%..........................essentially it is a trading vehicle for funds and traders to pass the hot potato..................

You never hear about how the Russian ruble, Brazialian Real, Indian Rupee, Chinese Yuan, are doing why?????????? They dont want you to look at the dollar vs countries where they are still growing..................before one trades you should do all of your own research you may listen to me or not, it makes no difference to me, but if I were collecting, trading gold silver or foreign coins, I would know the exchange rates in most major countries. I wouldn't critisize somone who has put nothing but facts that have been true and profitable out........

Oh an if you want my thoughts on the Euro............. I have trade that and many cross currency pairs vs the precious metals for many many years, for years in the mid 2000's it was very painful to be long gold and silver and short the euro aas every machine and black box had to own it up until 2008........

A little info on the Euro.............when the EU came about and decided the currency was going to replaace all local money, some of the exchange rates were as follows"
Germany 2:1
Netherlands 2.5:1
Greece 170:1
Spain 190:1
France 6:1
Italy 1900:1
Portugal 220:1
you can look up the rest it was a joke that everyone bought into for years and it will not be a laughing matter as it contiues to dissolve

If you took the relaitve wieghts of the countries exchange rates at inception of the euro it should have come out at 1/137 of a dollar NO WHERE NEAR PAR

I guess the easiest way to put it is in 2008 with Gold arund 1000 and Silver around 20, the yen was about 1:120 vs the dollar, it is now around 1:77 so huge increase, the pound has gone from 2.09:1 to abour 1.55:1 so major decrease, and the euro from 1.57:1 to it current level of say 1.25:1 decrease as wel..........................................gold has sinced gained lets say 70% and silver about 50% in us dollar terms.................

Gold in euros is up more than 110% since 2008...........about 600 eu back then 1340 eu now.................so how has gold gone up more in europe than in the US??????????????????? Think about it numbers and returns dont lie, ..............................the media telling you the PM rally was due to strength in the Euro is still BS and will contue to be..................the fellow coin collectors and traders that bought gold in europe made almost twice as much as we Americans did................I hope this helps......................

And again as I stated from the first time I wrote my little blog, thread , or whatever this is. All I was trying to do was give back and help out some fellow coin collectors, as the PM markets have been confusing and frustrating to say the least this year........................if at anytime you dont like what I say or think I am trying to scam you stop reading...................... but I have gotten quite a few people who have complimneted my writings and thoughts................so I might just contnue to give random updates

Most Sincerely,
Qsilver

 

When a share of GLD or SLV is shorted. It is only the share that was lent out for selling, not the Gold or silver. That remains untouched and the share is still intact. It is the same thing if you short J&J. Do you really think J&J has to sell off part of the company because people are selling short?

Or maybe we just didn't drink the Kool-Aid

 

Although I'm skeptical about almost everything, I do like this thread. I would like to thank Qsilver for sharing his daily experience in the PM market. It is also nice to see a trader who is also a collector.

 

I simply reported the writing of a researcher. And as to whether I have read the Prospectus...No. A waste of time, as I would never buy GLD or SLV under any circumstances. I'm not into paper gold and paper silver.

In April 2011, a skeptical Ted Butler wrote:

"Publicly-traded ETFs that have specific metal backing are highly unique securities. Perhaps a small short position may be overlooked on a temporary basis until the metal is deposited in the Trust due to logistical considerations. But a short position that represents more than 10% of the outstanding shares issued means that many buyers of the shares have no metal backing. This is clearly not in keeping with the spirit of the prospectus that each share issued be backed by one ounce of silver on deposit with the custodian..."

August 24:

SLV Short Interest (Shares Short)
​

13,699,900

 

Ah, Ted Butler, the Patron Saint of the Silver Stackers. Ted's big theory is that three banks have concentrated silver positions and are manipulating the Silver Market for there own benefit.

That is real interesting, since he was shouting from the rooftops what a screaming good buy silver was at $45 plus. Considering Ted sells his info/newsletter for $35/month (over $400 per year). I think he should have provided that nugget of info before his disciples lost almost half their investment, don't you?

Seems more likely to me that Ted is just making exuses to cover his butt so he can keep collecting that $400 per year from his sheep.

You do what you want, but I wouldn't believe a word of what he writes. He sure doesn't seem to understand a short position.

 

That is fine, and I will read them. As long as anyone stays within the rules, their opinions can be judged by those who wish to. One person's opinion is another's "hogwash" and visa versa, we just stay away from the personalities.

Jim

 

I see.

Let me follow up with another question: as a trader and investor, you receive information from a variety of sources. Suppose one of your sources says that he has extensive knowledge and experience, and that he's often sought and quoted as a source by various media outlets -- but he isn't willing to reveal his identity, or to provide any evidence backing his statement. How much weight do you attach to the information he provides?

 

@jeffb

if you have specific questions or requests im sure i can get them answere for you at some pint this week

as for mkt update

commdodity focus had sitched to rbob and natty as they believe they can make an upside sotry due to trpical storm issac possibly heading into the gulf

so my take for the week is as long as the stock market remains elevated options prices vols will remain depressed almost all the funds and traders have moved into dec silver futures tonite the balance by tues

sep options exp for gc and si is tues

rbob up 3% and silver 2% as of writing rbob clearing 3.00 ......................we are paying 4.89 a gallon for premo in chicago

silve in sep clears 31, dec 9 cents higher..............see what happens on the european open

many comrades saying silver is way over bought, i say it hasnt moved in 4 months except last week............they are all long AAPL by the way

my guess is the ranges in pms have shifted up and gold will be 1590-1690
silver will be 28.50-31.60

they do need to digest the moves if they dont you will end up with too many machines long (yes all the ones that were short last sun nit at 27.90) and it will be taken down hard

better to consolidate have a few unched days

options vols will compress more then you can play either side

have a good evening

dont know what night it will happen but an interin trading range top will happen in gc and si this week between 12:00 am and 3:00 am est just my thought fyi


best wishes
qsilver