Guess the Mintage of the 2012 San Francisco Two Coin Proof Set

I'm thinking that I might purchase a couple more next week. If the mintage is around 200k, it may have value down the road. It is interesting to see that the ship date has moved to 28 September. What is going on with that?

 

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My guess is that they had about 150,000 made in anticipation of sales, now they have to make more. Just a guess but it makes sense...

 

It sounds like a good guess. If it is the reason, I'm hoping that they didn't hire a market research company on this one. How poor a decision to price this one at $150. They would have made much more money at $130.

 

Well if they only wanted to make only 150k sets, but end up selling 300k, then they priced it too low or left the window open too long.

And I dont think the pricing is that bad or unfair honestly. Normal proofs are in the mid $60s, with mintages of up to 800k. the 25th anniversary set forced you to buy 3 fillers to get 2 "uniques" at a price of $60 each. This set contains only 2 "uniques" at $75 each.

 

buy what you think is enough for your collection. don't think about selling at e-bay or someone else. and don't even think about send them for slab and make huge money afterward. cause anyone can buy it directly from the mint at unlimited quantity. and most likely all ASE collectors will buy it before dateline. my estimate total mintage is 300,000 to 350,000 strong. and my estimate retail price is around or near mint offer price. but we might lost money for selling to coin dealers.

 

So you are thinking it will double the sells in last few days? And even if it does only the 1st round of shipments would be 1st strike/early release eligible. I think that this is is going make the 1st sets of 70s double the mint price at least.

 

Well, I upped the mintage by one
A Special Thanks to Log Potato for helping me out!

Can't wait until I get them in September to (Not) Submit them and to (not) flip 'em.

 

Well, I am thinking I will get all of one. And probably this weekend, or on Monday. Although I don't seem to be really into it right now, maybe when I get it in Sept or Oct it will pleasantly surprise me.

 

Marketing is understanding the market. The mint would have sold many more sets at $130 than $150. Whoever told the mint to sell them at $150 missed the boat. They could have made several more million in gross margin at a price at $130. They would have made millions more in proift and made up for the severe losses in cents and nickels. It is quite obvious to me. It is almost as stupid as giving a tax holiday on FICA tax when we're all living longer. Yup, that makes sense.

 

[TABLE="width: 172"]


Daily

Date
Sales

[TD="align: right"]6/8/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85,341[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/9/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] [/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/10/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] [/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/11/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29,718[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/12/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,245[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/13/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4,067[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/14/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,169[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/15/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,972[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/16/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] [/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/17/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] [/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/18/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,956[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/19/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,210[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/20/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,185[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/21/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,029[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/22/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,281[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/23/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/24/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] [/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/25/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,874[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/26/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4,522[/TD]
[/TABLE]

 

The mint already has a proof program that sells for most of the year that they sell for $65 a piece ($130 for 2).

maximized sales and profit apparently isn't the only objective of the mint, otherwise why would they create a 100k 25th anniversary set or limit the mintage to 1 month? And why stop at $130, why not sell at $100 or $60 for that matter? You could argue with a $30 per coin price point, they'd do sales comparable to the bullion coins. 10 million of these * 3 premium = $30 mil profit. Or if maxing profit was their objective, why not limit the issuance and release at a higher price, then slowly start releasing stockpiled coins over the next few years through channels like ebay?

Many collector's items are collector's items because they are limited in issuance. By including a neat box, raising the price, and limiting the issuance window, they're obviously trying to create a collector's item. And IMO, they did this set this year to "make up" for last year's screw up.

 

I don't think it will be a flippers paradise or strong secondary market after the cut off date for mint purchasing. The 25th Anniverary set was sought after by a lot of serious ASE collectors and knowlegable coin collectors. There were more of them than sets available, they drove the after market. If you fit in this buyer's catagory, you must have your head stuck in the sand, if you don't know they are currently available from the mint. These people will buy and won't procrastinate obtaining a set. They are the one's driving this number upwards right now, and they will be absent in the secondary market for the flippers. And if there are as many PF/PR 70's in this San Francisco Set as there were in the 25th Anniversary Sets, these collectors who are buying, won't need to chase after them later, either. Many will aquire them in their original mint purchases.

 

^

IF it does occur, i think it will be well after the issuance date and if the mintage is reasonably low. Maybe in a year or two at the earliest. Also, I think the ratio of 70s are going to be even higher for these sets because for the "anniversary" and "FS" labels, you don't need to submit the unopened boxes. Therefore, you can cherrypick the best coins.

I remember when the UHRs were selling. People complained about the exact same thing... too high of a price, too high mintage, could buy the coin for most of the year without any sort of buying limit. That 120k mintage was seen as HIGH at the time. You could buy graded and ungraded UHRs at not much higher than the issue price. Now it's apparent that mintage was not nearly enough to cover the eventual demand. Not saying that this set will be a home run like the UHR or even the 2006 or 2011 sets. But I'm just saying that you really never know... $150 really is not that much money to buy and keep a nice set. And the value doubling to $150 for each of the coins isn't much of a stretch either. Look at the values of the unique coins in the other sets.

Also, it's somewhat of an odd time to issue a limited timeframe set like this. It's summer, and people have other things on their mind like vacations and whatnot. Think a lot of people that would be interested are going to miss out on it.

just my .02

 

buyingsilvers;

The flippers don't want to wait that long. They want there cash now and only the expansion of the real collector community could cause the set to increase dramatically. That segment isn't growing at the rate it needs to cause this to happen. The likely hood of doubling in value has a better chance of happening due to PM value increasing. But then all ASE values would increase accordingly, not just this set.

 

156,000 and 8 days to go!

 

[TABLE="width: 250"]



Reported


Daily
Cumulative

Date
Sales
Sales

[TD="align: right"]6/8/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85,341[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85,341[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/9/2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/10/2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/11/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29,718[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]115,019[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/12/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,245[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]121,304[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/13/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4,067[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]125,371[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/14/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,169[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]128,540[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/15/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,972[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]131,512[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/16/2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/17/2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/18/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,956[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]135,468[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/19/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,210[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]136,678[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/20/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,185[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]138,863[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/21/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,029[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]141,892[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/22/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,281[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]145,173[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/23/2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/24/2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/25/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,874[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]152,047[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/26/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4,522[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]156,569[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/27/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]162,581[/TD]
[/TABLE]

 

Average daily sales are now 8129. If average holds total will be 227,613.

 

I think it might be around 310,000 now. Simply took the last two weeks data (not counting the first day or this week's three days, added them in - roughly - and voila!!! --- my prediction!

Well, it's as good as any other guess.

 

it's only at 166 so yesterday's volume was around 4k. I still think we will end up around 250k or less. People keep thinking there's going to be a huge last minute push. I think there will be one, but perhaps less than people think. Price of silver is tanking, and paying 3x spot might turn some off. The last couple days bracket the 4th of july holiday. It would take some real coin nuts to dump orders in while on vacation. The big dealers probably already have all their orders in from the first week.

 

Plus you have got to remind yourself to deduct the cancelations, people thinking twice about very large orders. They may cancel larger orders and re-order at lower quantities! Figure a %4 cancellation rate should be about right ! Give or take