Guess the Mintage of the 2012 San Francisco Two Coin Proof Set

Well...I was just off by 3/4 million give or a take a few thousand...:rollling:

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Me too ~ lol

 

[TABLE="width: 318"]

[TD="colspan: 4, align: center"]2012 SF Special Proof Set[/TD]


Daily
Cumulative
Avg. Daily

Date
Sales
Sales
Sales

[TD="align: right"]6/8/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85,341[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85,341[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85,341[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/9/2012[/TD]




[TD="align: right"]6/10/2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]Sat & Sun sales included in Mon totals[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/11/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29,718[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]115,019[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38,340[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/12/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,245[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]121,304[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30,326[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/13/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4,067[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]125,371[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20,895[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/14/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,169[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]128,540[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18,363[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/15/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,972[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]131,512[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16,439[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/16/2012[/TD]




[TD="align: right"]6/17/2012[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]Sat & Sun sales included in Mon totals[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/18/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,956[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]135,468[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12,315[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/19/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,210[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]136,678[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11,390[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/20/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,185[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]138,863[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10,682[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/21/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,029[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]141,892[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10,135[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/22/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,281[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]145,173[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9,678[/TD]
[/TABLE]

 

I've dropped my estimated from 500k to 300k to 250k. I'm now thinking about 225k. They really botched the price of these guys. I believe that they could have sold 500k with a price around $130. As the price of silver has steadily dropped over the past couple of months to $26.81, the interest in silver seems to be also diminishing.

 

boy was i dead wrong when i predicted 895k i believe LOL. Not sure if it will even make 200k now. I wonder if there will be a pickup of orders near the end with the fairly low mintage so far....

 

i think people may be targeting bullion more with the dropping price. Sales of bullion are doing quite well, 2,075,000 silver eagles sold so far this month according to USMint website

 

I don't think the sales would have changed that drastically if it were $20 less than it's current price.

 

I just did a little computation I thought was interesting. In August of 2006, when the 20th anniversary set was released, silver was about $12.50 an ounce. The set sold for $100.00 or 2.6X silver value. There were 250,000 sets minted. A set now sells for around $350.00.

The 2012 anniversary set, taking into account the release price and the current silver price, is selling for 2.6X silver value. It looks like there could well be under 250,000 sets created. Is anybody else seeing a possible correlation or has the anniversary set concept run its course?

 

I did this sort of math with the 25th Anniv. set and I believe this set could benefit from the same sort of post-availability boost. There are a lot of factors that will go into play here too. Mintage is the biggest factor, I do believe there will be a rush in the last few days, but the magic number to break is 250,000. If it does that plus or minus 5K it is going to be a winner for sure... this set will be selling for $200+ in no time, that will be for 69's/opened sets. Sets of 70's will sell for $300+

Another factor I think is the shipping after the ordering period has stopped, you will likely have to be happy with what you get, or if you return and want a replacement you will likely get someone elses return or be SOL. That being said the condition of these coins and how they grade will weigh heavily on aftermarket prices/sales. If perfect 70's are hard to come by (not likely, but it could happen) it could drive the prices even higher.

The unfortunate reality of the coin collecting world is that we (myself included ) love gimmicks and are often taken in by them and everything that surrounds them, grading etc. The dealers will tout the low mintages and the "don't miss out like the 25th anniv. set which now sells for bla bla bla".

Oh yes, if they make it, we will buy it... If we don't, we will pay inflated aftermarket prices~

 

Modern Coin Mart has got them listed as a pre-order ~

NGC PF69 & Reverse PF69 - $189 plus shipping

NGC or PCGS PF70 & Reverse PF70 - $229 plus shipping

I have bought from them before and they usually charge $6 shipping.

 

Looking at it you can't preorder at that price you can just tell them you want it and it may still be at the same price when it comes in.. I think it wouldn't actually be anywhere near 230 for pcgs first strike both 70s.

 

Exactly, cost of grading fees with FS are gonna be like $60+ plus shipping... figure at least $250 for PCGS FS... of course... they are all first strike~

 

You know, that may be true. Even a 20 dollar difference in price - meaning paying 75 per coin instead of 65 - can be a difference in perception of whether buying the coin is worth it or not. I originally thought I would get 3 sets, with the price hopefully being about 120 for the set. That would mean I could put about 360 into it. But at 150 a set I started not just backing away from that, but I am now on the fence as if I want more than one set even. So If I purchase one set with the price at 150, and the reason behind it being that I wouldn't consider 3 at that price (450 spent) and have considered two at the price (300 spent), means that the mint has likely lost somewhere between 60 and 210 dollars from just one customer, rather than having increased their revenue by 90 dollars. And by doing that, they have skipped making 2 or 4 coins. Since making those coins would probably take less than a minute in press time, that's a lot to lose.

For a while I was even considering not ordering any. But I may order the one set. Right now I'm not even seeing myself getting two sets.

I think the mint has guessed that by putting a mint to demand, that people would step up to ordering more, rather than less, and they could gain the extra bucks on this.

With silver at the price it is now, I think that 60 for a new silver dollar is probably the most that one should be offered for.

 

If mintage is 250,000 at 150 per, then the mint takes in 37.5 million.
If mintage is 500,000 at 130 per, then the mint would have taken in 65 million, and if Mintage was 600,000 at 120 per, then it would have taken in 72 million.

When all is cut and dried, IMO, if the final mintage for the mint is less than 300 thousand, then they made a huge mistake in pricing, thinking perhaps that people would pony up and get what they planned to anyways.

 

i know its cheaper for modern but for us its closer to $80 when you consider you have to pay for first strike. and that's only if your lucky enough to get 70s on 1 set. I would say if modern coins will be closer to $300+.

 

the decrease in silver price will suppress mintage if silver does not pop up before the end of this offering. It may come in at 200K instead of my predicted 250K

 

Are the mints numbers on the set on line sales or does it take into account mail order sales? I just received the summer 2012 catalog from the mint, so I would guess that there will be many orders generated from the catalog.

 

I'm not sure, but that could really be an interesting wrinkle in the strategy. Oooh; the plot thickens.

 

From the mint's web site, directly under the counter:

*Data for cumulative total units ordered is updated daily, Monday through Friday, atapproximately 3 p.m. (ET) and is an approximation of total units ordered from the United States Mint through all of its active sales channels. This data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed to represent accepted orders or actual sales figures.​

 

yes, I've gotten the summer catalog, too. They probably mailed it to everyone who has ordered from them. So they are expecting a certain amount out of that. That will be added in, as I imagine that any order put in the mail and postmarked by Jul 5 will qualify.