2012 Silver Crash?

The whole idea of "cheating" is irrelevant. No American should be forced to compete on a wage basis with third world countries. Tariffs are a tool to ensure prosperity. If the US can gain an unfair advantage by their use, we should use it. The whole idea that this somehow puts a burden on taxpayers is incorrect. It gives taxpayers a secure and higher standard of living. Any increase in cost is offset by the reduced need for other taxes to fund the government. Tariffs are not bailouts. They are a method to (1) equalize wages from low cost producers, (2) increase investment in the US to raise the standard of living, (3) protect strategic industries, (4) attract capital to the US to get over the tariff wall, and (4) prevent corporations from forcing wages and benefits to third world standards.

The theory of global free trade doesn't work for US citizens. Before protectionism got a bad name, the US had the highest and fastest growing standard of living, but never the cheapest prices for goods and services. It's a fool's errand to make it a goal to have the lowest possible cost of everything.

 

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But we did not achieve such a standard of living by tariffing our way to prosperity. We did it by out competing other countries. Look at what REALLY caused the great depression, it was the worldwide impositions of tariffs to "protect" domestic industries.

Sorry Cloud, we just disagree to the extent the US can compete. I believe we can compete in most industries IF we are allowed to. India still has massive restrictions on what can be imported into there, why the heck are we so stupid to allow them free access to our telemarketing industry when our firms get frozen out of their industry? Tit for tat, we should treat every country the way we are treated. On that basis I believe we can hold our own with anyone.

 

There are almost no Chinese goods for sale in the USA. What is for sale are American goods that were manufactured in China. I say America because it is America's companies that are responsible for this and it's done solely to enrich the few at the top. Who in this country would call the Iphone, Ipad, Mac, etc. a Chinese good? Yet they are 100 percent manufactured in China by a Chinese company called Foxconn. Apple once manufactured these devices in the USA but in their wisdom, Apple felt it was better to move this manufacturing to China. Aside from laying off 1000s of skilled workers, they also destroyed 1000s of more jobs in the supply chain. Yet our system rewards APPL with very high stock valuations. What is wrong with this picture?

I pick on Apple because its well known, but all the major corporations are guilty of this. IBM for example gladly takes incentive money for jobs all while moving it's technology base to India and SA. They lay off 50000 US workers in the last 5 years and the CEO leaves the company with $122M bonus money. They are selling off our intellectual assets for the benefit of just a few.

The problem isn't China. I agree with cloud. There is no such thing as a society that can exist solely on consumption yet we are told this every day by the media. As a result of this American standards of living have been falling for some time and can only be maintained by the issuance of huge amounts of debt. This is what has blown up. It won't fixed until society is ready to make some hard choices and we are still a long way from that.

(counterfeit chinese goods are already illegal)

 

Because corporations are in it to make money besides reason companies are moving overseas is because talent is overseas. Go to any college campus and get a listing of the students in science majors, i bet you more than 50% are foreign students this is a trend that started happening a decade ago and unlike before most of these students are returning home. While most of the kids here mainly take BS courses to party their way thru college.

 

The US absolutely achieved a high standard of living through tariffs to protect US workers from cheap foreign labor. To think otherwise is to not understand economic history regardless of how many degrees you have. Smoot Hawley did not cause the Great Depression. If you study the economic statistics carefully, you will see that the economy began to recover after the tariff was implemented. It was only the failure of Credit Anstalt and the inexcusably poor reactions by the central banks of the world that turned a recession into a Depression. The Great Depression was a banking/credit/liquidity crisis, not a trade crisis. Of course, this is not widely taught because the writers of the text books have a different agenda.

So we will disagree, although it is interesting that you credit the prosperity of India with the same free trade restrictions that you indicate would be no good for the US. Sometimes it is more difficult to unlearn things you believe but are incorrect than to learn the truth the first time around. If your position wins the day, and it very well might, the US will successfully compete by depressing wages to third world levels. This might be good for corporate profits but not for citizens, and that is the real point, is it not?

 

Which country in Europe has the strongest economy? Germany. Why? Because they maintained their manufacturing base which is supported by a very skilled work force who directly produce the goods and/or do the same in the supply chain. Their economy is based on exporting these goods. Which economies are in deep trouble. The PIIGS, i.e. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, & Spain. They have economies that expanded due to huge increases of debt and governmental expansion.

Which example is the USA following?

 

Can you cite any statistics for the 50% claim, or did you make it up? You just disrespected an entire generation of American citizens. Corporations are moving overseas because of the low wages, government provision of benefits, lack of environmental regulation, etc... And they will continue to suck investment capital out of the US and send it to other countries unless the government stops them [which it probably won't].

 

I went to a major State University on Long Island during the 1970's and granted there were many foreign students (mainly Asian) enrolled there in the sciences. I know many went back home following graduation but I also know some stayed here to experience the American dream and contribute to the collective wealth of this nation. The students who party and take BS courses often don't make it through the four year degree program. At least that's how it was (and still is) at my old school...

 

Here is break down by NCSES it is 44% for all colleges for S&E, if you look top 25 college the number is at over 60% IIRC.
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/infbrief/nsf10324/

Even Gates did a very good speech recently about growing lack of interest in Science and Engineering in schools in US, yes what you mentioned are problems but i think this is another root cause which few politicians talk about.

 

I have 30 or so years to kill.

 

silver at $25 would make a good buying target. Possibility of the low point being at $25 within a year? I think is good.

 

The time will go faster than you think. Also remember that the greatest force you have working for you is the compounding of investment returns, and losing a decade or two to low returns will make a tremendous difference in your lifetime investing results.

 

^^^ Yes, what he said.

One of the best things I ever did was start investing as soon as I could. I bought my first stock when I was 16 years old. I started my IRA when I was 19, which wasn't easy because I was in the Army and stationed in Germany and it was 1990, long before online investing.

And, if you're just starting out in investing, don't put all your money into precious metals. Put 90% of your savings into the market, preferably small business stocks (historically the best performing sector), and 10% into precious metals if you want something you can hold in your hand. If that means one ounce per month, so be it. You'll still be ahead of 90% of your peers.

 

Not surprising it has come out today that JP Morgan's losses are far higher than what they initially estimated. Lloyds is also having some difficulties.

 

Gubment Motors, i.e. GM, a subsidiary of the US Taxpayer, announced today a major expansion of one of its plants which will create 700 new jobs and secure 1000s of other jobs for a long time. Unfortunately this plant is in the UK and the jobs will be British and not American. Your tax dollars at work for sure.

This is why I say nothing has been fixed with the American economy from 2008. We bail out corporations with our money then watch as they increase employment in other countries. Even ones where workers have better rights than the ones in the USA.

 

I do not credit India's prosperity to restrictive trade. I credit it to them being able to have restrictions on imports while enjoying the fruits of unfettered exports. They are leeching on other countries trade practices and basically stealing US intellectual property. I am saying that if they continue to steal US IP they should not be allowed to access our markets without tariffs. Those tariffs should compensate US firms hurt by their practices.

Same with China. IDC who is making the goods in China, but China is benefiting exactly like India, and as such all imports from China should be tariffed until such time they stop stealing from US firms.

I am saddened you truly believe tariffs create prosperity Cloud. We read the same history and come up with different conclusions. I am a firm believer free trade benefits all, but we do not have free trade today, we have free trade amongst some countries but major impediments to trade even amongst developed countries. I simply believe the US should treat every nation like we are treated. If they have true free trade with us, we should reciprocate and both nations benefit. However, even countries like Canada have some massive restrictions to trade with us, and we should respond accordingly. Dairy products, for one, is basically forbidden to be imported into Canada. Why are we allowing then canadian lumber or oats to be imported into the US for free? We are our own worst enemy when it comes to trade, allowing ourselves to be taken advantage of.

 

I would say Germany is strongest since they simply make better goods. They always have. Its not government policy, its the people. Northern Europe works hard and produces quality. What do all of those nations you listed have in common? They are all southern European nations.

 

We can disagree. I just think faith in global free trade is unwarranted by human history. There will always be economic predators and US citizens should be protected from them, not sacrificed to them. The Disney version of global trade is never going to happen.

 

Help me Cloud and medora...don't you both truly agree that tariffs should be utilized more, for the benefit of the U.S. economy? I keep popping in, when I have a minute to spare, but I must not be reading carefully enough...each of your posts seems to say, "I disagree with you..." however then you each go on to say something which either of you could have said

 

Off topic but want to point out this plant is for Vauxhall and none of the cars used for Vauxhall name plate can be manufactured in USA.