Silver - Who's buying, who's selling?

I had bought lots of silver, rounds, bars back when it was between 10-15, I sold most of it off, or gave it away in contests since then. I am still buying silver though, mainly junque silver, since that is about all the local dealers sell around here without a premium.

 

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I am buying and selling .... I was buying junk silver as well as world silver commemorative coins for couple of years, and very few bullion coins. Now I decided to sell some commemorative ones and replace the hole with bullion (this replacement is being done via this forum as well).

So, for every oz of commemorative coin I sell, I buy bullion, and adding to the collection ...

 

I've been buying and selling. Luckily, I've bought silver below melt and sold above melt. Not big bucks but enough to keep me flush with money for other collectible coins.

 

I am doing about the same as I always did.

 

I've been buying seady for about a year. I try to buy at least 3 oz a month. I mainly like ase and junk silver. I started on ebay but man its selling for way over spot on there now. I really want to find a decent local dealer. I currently use provident metals and craigslist ect. I'm holding for long term and I find it to be a fun hobby

 

They can just as easily profit from you by buying your silver for 3-5 dollars less than they would sell it to someone else for. There is no shortage of buyers in this market. However, price does not have to go up, but it should go up because it is artificially suppressed. I know I will get pushback on this assertion but the simple fact that there is roughly half of 1 year's worth of mining supply available on the open market as opposed to a century ago when there was 40-50 times that amount of silver means that supply and demand are not working. Due to the successful nature of the suppresion it may very well require the end of the current order for the price to reach fair value.

As to the topic, I am a buyer at any price as long as there are negative real interest rates, as in interest rates minus inflation is less than zero. This is the key indicator for whether precious metals will rise or fall since negative real interest rates are bad for dollar purchasing power.

In the event that interest rates skyrocket and thus real interest rates turn positive then we would be looking at a deflationary scenario in which case the national debt would not be able to be paid off without significant cuts to government cheese, warmongering, and pork-barrell politics, or worse implementation of austerity measures like we see in Greece today. In such a scenaro precious metals may fall in price, but their desirability would be maintained as a tangible resource providing protection against default on the debt since the only way to avoid default in a deflationary scenario without the tool of money printing (which is inflationary) is to instead cut government spending approximately in half otherwise the debt is unpayable.

So I would need to see the combination of positive real interest rates, government spending being cut in half, and the economy being able to sustain itself without free money in order to turn bearish on metals.

 

What sort of prices are you finding out there these days for the type of merchandise you collect? You should also remove your disclaimer since you are in the 99th percentile of folks when it comes to knowledge of silver art bars.

Also, I am neither buying nor selling silver these days. While I believe it will rise from here, it is priced fairly and probably no longer represents a bargain.

 

Holding. Until someone scares me enough to make me sell. Or changes my skepticism. Or makes me NOT afraid to sell.

And buying. But only for "pretty" now.. those I intend to keep because I like them. Non-pretty is for 'security'.

Lucy

 

All silver is pretty.

I know what you mean though, Lucy, and am in the same position. If you buy a coin for the love of collecting, then you have already made your money back in enjoyment. Its residual value is besides the point.

 

Great example of how vague numbers can be used to mislead. You could just as accurately say that fuel & oil prices were much higher in 2008 than now.

Today the price of crude is $104. In July 2008: $145. In December 2008: $30 (caused by, you know, that whole Great Recession thing).
In March 2012, the avg reg unleaded fuel price in the US was about $3.87. In July 2008 it hit: $4.12. In December 2008 it fell to: $1.61.

 

Originally Posted by Blaubart

Just a quick survey. With silver at $31.500, who's buying, who's selling?

I'm from small town USA where we only have one coin dealer. We also have a bullion dealer, I've chatted with both of these guys recently and they are both advising people to buy because the price HAS to go up. They both say the price is artificially low right now, but I don't know if I can trust them because of course, both of them want to sell me silver.

The price of silver is "artificially low right now"? Silver has gone up, what, 600% over the past 10-12 years? Who's keeping the price "artificially low", some secret international conspiracy? And the "price HAS to go up"?? B/C these silver sellers say so?

What about the prices of oil, or grains right now? Are they also "artificially low"? Oh, & guess what--most people can get along w/o silver. Not so much tho with food, oil, gasoline......

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Just read the internet blogs of people who either want you to buy from them or sell you a subscription. They will show you with some graphs how silvr should be $500 an ounce right now, and "the man" is keeping it from finding its true value!

As an aside, I agree with Inflexion looking at real interest rates. With such poor returns, there is a lot of "hot money" looking for a home. Now, how much of this is in PM versus land, other commodities, or other investment types is the unknown. The question would be, though, is if a lot of this "hot money" is already in PM, what will happen if bond yields increase? I am not saying what will happen, but to those who refuse to believe PM could possibly go down, there is a scenario for you.

I am simply seeing a whole bunch of people at coin shows who have never bought PM in their life buying the last couple years. These "weak hands" can sell any time, since they are new and are not used to market swings. Maybe this will continue, or maybe they will need to raise money for funding another bull market elsewhere. IDK.

Since IDK, I simply stand pat and wait to see if I see some kind of movement.

 

I was like a kid in a candy shop at the Albuquerque NM coinshow this weekend bought a little to much

 

That's what I'm saying, and that's why I came here for some unbiased opinions.

Also, I find it odd that they completely dismiss the possibility that the rise in price is due to speculation. It only takes an small increase in demand to make a big price increase in a commodities market like silver.

 

Anybody that tells you that is someone you should not buy from. They're selling you a line of you know what. I would have asked them why it HAS to go up and why they think it's artificially low. I bet they come up with a scare scenario lifted right from Fox News.
Guy

 

It varies on the type of silver art bars that I am looking for. For example, most Coca-Cola silver art bars that I have seen at the local dealers and at the coin shows are selling for a premium that is higher than their typical .999 generic premiums. That premium can vary from $5 to $12 over spot for the most common ones and much higher than that for harder-to-find Coca-Cola bars. If a person can buy a Coca-Cola bar for less than $10 over spot, then I consider that a decent premium for a Coca-Cola bar in my opinion but that can be hard to do unless you buy one from a dealer who treats all .999 silver the same.

As for most of the common-minted '70's silver art bars (Madison, Hamilton, Mother-Lode, Holiday-themed, etc.), I see the LCS and coin show dealers selling those for .999 generic silver premium.

If there is a rare art bar that it being sold at a local dealer or sold at a coin show (from a "non-collector" dealer), then it is usually sold for .999 generic silver premiums because the dealer probably does not know (nor care) about collector value.

Overall, silver art bars (except for Coca-Cola) that are sold locally and at coin shows by non-collector dealers are treated (and priced) as .999 generic silver.

I will eventually remove my "disclaimer" from my sig. line but I do not want to do that quite yet since I am still learning about the various silver art bars that I see displayed elsewhere by other collectors. There are several silver art bar collectors that are more knowledgeable and more experienced than I am and I consider them to be the true experts of the silver art bar hobby and I am just a "student" that is still learning.

 

I'm buying whatever coins I buy. I like silver US, and I will keep it for years to come, so I say long term and economy circling the drain. However, lets add a new metaphor. Say the economy is trapped in orbit around a planet, but it is in a decaying orbit. That would mean it could hit the planet(collapse), or get a slingshot(jump) out. Just a metaphor with more options.

 

That can happen once an object is already in a decaying orbit?

 

Literally, I have no clue, but think, maybe a moon is over the object as it begins it's possible final decent, and it is held up so it does not hit the surface, but gains a good amount of speed because of its proximity to the planet so it breaks out of the orbit after it leaves the gravity of the moon. That is just a guess though. Figuratively, the economy has improved as it was in bad positions, like the great depression and stuff.

 

double post, by me, that is