Silver Decline: What Is Your Trigger Point?

Politicians can spin both ways. What matters is how people feel about the reality of the economy, and that sentiment has been steadily improving for some time. Economic sentiment is self-fulfilling.

 

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They also won't count those who receive a severance package until the severance package runs out. If you are forced to take your pension due to a layoff, they won't count you either if the the pension exceeds the allowance part. (or if the allowance part makes the part you are elegible for too small to bother with).

Believe it or not, unemployment benefits are taxed by the federal government and most states. Since this greatly eats into the weekly benefit, some people simply choose not to deal with the requirements for getting it and thus are never counted. Benefits also expire. Once they have expired, you are no longer counted.

On the other hand, you are considered employed if you get paid for just 1 hour work/week or you work for a family business that reports income.

 

Our nation has already spent the incomes of generations who haven't been born yet and that piper will have to be paid. That is not spin and how anybody feels about it won't make any difference in the reality of it.

 

I usually discount the "you're just unemployed because you made poor choices" argument. But if someone told me "I turned down $300/week in benefits because I would've had to pay $60/week in taxes", I'd have to call that a "poor choice".

 

The economy improves when people feel better about the economy improving, it's circular and self-fulfilling, but that's the way it is. A stronger economy can do some paying down of debt. See: the 90s economy erasing the Reagan deficits. The debt is higher now, of course, for a number of reasons, but a stronger economy is actually good news (something you wouldn't think people in this forum believe).

 

I agree with you on this specific situation but it doesn't change what I posted.

 

Please provide data for the years you cite where part of the national debt was paid back along with the amounts.

 

Beats the heck outta me.

I wait for macro-events to judge this kind of trade.

If you use technical analysis support/resistance, the next solid level of support below $27 is just under $20.

My "deflating silver" thinking and belief that the economy is definitely not improving is based upon the following:

• Even the always optimistic Goldman Sachs has lowered Q1 GDP to 1.8%, which means it will likely be 1.2 -1.5. That's not real growth, even at the optimistic 1.8%.
• Gas prices are about to go over $4.00.
• Housing is still falling. The Case-Schiller index just hit its lowest level in 9 years.
• Wages are stagnant. They rose 1.9% over the past year ... even less than the cooked CPI number, and far below the assumed true inflation number of ~6%.
• The unemployment numbers are mainly cooked by dropping people from the rolls. I predicted a year ago that they would be rigged to get below 8% before the election. These numbers were utterly predictable. There were 140 million jobs in 2009 and 140 million jobs in 2012 (Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers). So how can 140 million jobs generate an unemployment rate of 10% in 2009 and 8.3% in 2012 while the population has grown by 6 million?
• Earnings are cooked. 35% of the earnings increase is from currency revaluation.
• Retail sales increases are being driven by the increase in fuel cost and autos. And the auto number is being cooked by GM dealer-stuffing to make it look like they're selling more cars than they are.
• People are re-leveraging, while the savings rate has been going down ... again
• ECRI predicts a recession, and I've never known ECRI to be wrong.
• Over $2 trillion has been added to the global money supply since November. That is the only thing holding the markets up. Trading volume is down substantially.
• And on and on ...

 

Certainly.

http://articles.cnn.com/2000-09-27/...onal-debt-fiscal-discipline?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS
http://clinton3.nara.gov/WH/Work/102899.html

http://clinton5.nara.gov/WH/Accomplishments/eightyears-03.html

http://www.treasurydirect.gov (use the table selection)

 

^ That reminds me back in the day i remember when the firm i was working for few of my colleagues in the other side were worried that we won't have any debt anymore

 

Just to clarify, I wasn't forecasting $20 silver for now. I just have no plans to buy it above $20 because commodities tend to revert to their cost of production in the long run. The price might go much higher first, and this seems like a reasonably high probability event given the long term bull market that is still in place. But someday it will again be at the cost of production, or lower. This means that the only way for people to hold their gains is to have an exit plan.

 

I would be a major problem if the US didn't have debt. Think about it, we get money in at different times of the year, so even if we lowered tax rates at certain times we would have excess money. What would we do with this excess money? Invest in other countries bonds? Invest in US corporate bonds? Either alternative would have political implications.

Its really a weird world to try to imagine yourself in. The US actually put together a team to draft a report on what would we do if this happened. Luckily it looks like we are dodging that bullet for a LONG time.

 

wow, really jumped away from talking about the price of silver there for awhile,lol

 

I wasn't doubting you. I wanted you to confirm what you were saying because by your own definition then, a healthy economy is one that pays back debt? Correct? And then one could make the reasonable assumption that one that isn't paying for its debts is unhealthy. And one that is increasing its debt is getting even more unhealthy. Here are your healthy numbers compared to now.

So by your own definition, the current economy isn't healthy. In fact, if one goes by the debt being accrued, the economy is doing very bad. You give Clinton good marks by paying off $363B in 2 years time. Yet the Obama administration is now going into debt by this amount every 15 weeks and the rate is accelerating. In the same period of time that Clinton saved $363B, Obama will have taken us into the hole by $2500B.

This kind of debt increase, using the very measuring stick that you give as the sign of an out of control economy. What say you? Oh wait you already did.

Case closed. Thanks for participating.

 

Incorrect. Good lord, you really twist people's word. Not even twist, you put words in peoples' mouths. The exact words I wrote were: "A stronger economy can do some paying down of debt". Very different from "a healthy economy is one that pays back debt". Everything else you wrote is based off your toxic imagination of something I never said nor meant. "Case closed".

My point was that the economy is improving (apparently an unfortunate event for you), and that a "healthy economy can do some paying down of debt", as a reply to the notion that the debt load is impossible and can never be reversed at all. Improving means not out of control or in a "tailspin". Simply that. Stop the straw men and twisting of words.

 

OK thanks for letting us know what is acceptable. There was no intent to discuss politics as using the name Obama and Clinton is pretty simple vs stating when and where we are talking about.

Maybe the sub forum should be renamed from "Bullion Investing". It seems that we really can't discuss the aspects of what affects that here, if I understand you correctly.

 

I like how this is worked right down to the cent. Odd then that they can't figure out where all that TARP money went? Nope, just "can't" figure it out. What's another missing trillion here or there....reference to the couple trill that the Pentagon couldn't seem to find about ten years back...so what's new really?


In other news...my trigger point is $25. Arbitrary, but I feel fine with that. And I'm likely going to buy more this weekend, just not at 'back the truck up' levels.

 

Clinton also reaped the financial benefits of the dot com era. Lots of people got rich, paid more taxes, new technologies, new jobs, Clinton raided Social Security to artificially adjust the numbers. Moreover, the government involved itself in the real estate/mortgage industry, which led to the burst bubble we've experienced. At the time, though, lots of houses were being built and sold, making things look all peachy.

 

too many people can't take being disagreed with and need the last word. plus lots of egos and thin skins. seems to happen more on the 'net than face to face. i stick by my under $30 in April and don't worry about who says I'm full of it. still look for a $40 fall season, maybe higher but I don't go too far out on a limb. might get chopped off. lol