Silver Lease Rates are Negative again.

i dont know about anyone else but both silver and gold have priced themselves out of my coin collection. tis truly sad

 

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Gold has priced itself out of my collection for the most part, though I will still get the 1/10 AGE proof this year as it's become an annual tradition for me. Silver, as long as it stays under $50/oz, I can afford, but I do become more pickier when I go to buy silver when prices are high.

 

Goodness gracious, these threads always seem to get so contentious.

To me the thread topic is extrapolating the question - What happens when silver lease rates are very low?

Recent history shows that when lease rates are low prices start to spike up. When prices spike up there's suddenly a series of large shorts that seem to be trying to push them back down ... usually successfully. You can call this manipulation or not. It really doesn't matter. What matters is that it happens more often than not. If it happens more than not then it becomes a higher probability than not. And successful investing is simply about betting on higher probabilities.

Do we invest in silver to be "right", or to make money? I know what my answer is. I don't have to be right all the time. I just want to give myself the knowledge to have the best chance to make money.

Now, as to whether "manipulation" is happening, well, that's something people can choose to believe or not. Doesn't really matter to me as I don't finalize my trading on what other people think (with the possible exception of Jim Rogers), so I really don't care to get into a back-n-forth about it. People can choose to do whatever they want with their own money. However, if you do suspect manipulation, that opinion gives you an option of looking at the timing of events connected to the schedule of actions (contract expiration, amount of physical silver, etc.) on the COMEX market. This should only be of consequence to "traders" of silver who are looking for the best entry/exit points. I bought the bulk of my silver at $8-11, which in itself is a 37% price gap. But so what ... look where it is now. Long-term holders should probably not be as concerned with manipulation and just buy on pull-backs because as long as they keep printing money silver will go up.

For those who want to explore the accusations of manipulation in simple terms, they can start with this series of interesting cartoons. Then study the daily contract action on the COMEX and read the accusations surrounding the silver manipulation court case against JP Morgan, starting with the Bear Stearns takeover and the August 2008 Bank Participation report.

Another thing to notice is that SLV is now touching a downward trendline. Which is an additional technical reason it may get knocked down. But again, that's something to add to the arsenal of "probabilities". Nothing in investing is "definite." If you need to have "definites" you need to put your money in the bank (where you "definitely" know it will lose value ).

 

Good call. :thumb: But I don't think that it is manipulation as much as market mechanics and what happens when big money enters a small market.

 

Basically profit taking

 

I actually don't love silver. I love the fundamentals of silver. I'd rather have a good woman if I had to choose but the reason why silver is not $200/oz for example is because the people selling it do not make or lose money on the spot price because they hedge. I've explained this elsewhere. The people who don't hedge just pull their inventories after smackdowns like today. Everybody around in May and September experienced this, as I recall the discussions about whether the inventory was gone or whether it was just pulled, but the big online dealers still provide real time pricing no matter what the price is doing. This illustrates how price really does not matter to them. Since coin shops and folks like us can take advantage of this price mechanism, they pass it on to their customers, but unfortunately when silver is no longer readily available it will not be a gradual transition since these mechanisms prevent the need for price adjustment according to physical supply and demand.

The only way silver can price itself out of the market is if it becomes more expensive than gold or platinum. It could happen, but I don't see that happening for at least 10 years. Even then, there will be loss of quality. As long as money is part of society people will be willing to pay extra for the better quality. I don't know any computer buffs who don't want the fastest computer possible. Unless molecular / photonic microprocessing becomes a reality for the masses (it probably already is for the MIB's) then nothing will provide better computing speeds than silver.

 

To all the people (except for Smitty who understands) who didn't believe it, and my detractors, I think today's activity proves the relationship between sudden negative PM lease rates and bankster raids. It's the last day before Comex silver futures expiration. At exactly 10 am EST the raid began and by 11:20, silver had been knocked down by exactly 9.992%. (to 4 decimal places) This isn't normal market activity.

Remember it's your money and today you got a free education on what really drives silver. It's up to you to take advantage of it instead of seeking guidance by looking at chicken entrails or smoking the hopium bong.

 

Perhaps if I get you off that unlucky "13" likes...things may turn around for you! :thumb:

What's that?! Gold dropped 100 bucks today?! (How 'bout that?) :cheers:

 

Indeed it did. Knocked down during the same period by 5.45%. I mentioned this possibility at the beginning of this topic. Lease rates have been kept continuously low for gold but I noticed the sharp lowering of silver rates which is why I made this topic.

 

Which calendar are you looking at?? I have the next expiration as March 30, not March 1st.

And it was of no significance to your supposition that it was the very time Bernanke was making a speech that implied that there was no probable QE3 coming? This is what hard money policy people have been clamoring for since the 2008 level, and now that they may get it, they know the strength of the USD will go up and PM and commodities unaffected by sociopolitical intrigue will go down.

Unbelievable !! No such "proof" would pass any type of verification. No, I do not believe it, purely coincidental.

I actually agree with this, but not for your "reasons", as I would add along with the entrails those who seem to have some reason to blame all changes in the price of PM to "banksters", "Manipulators/speculators", "The MAN", or the Leap Year curse. If these entities are able to do this, why do you continue to root and hope rather than put your money with the "Banksters, Manipulators, or the MAN, and make money like they do?

Jim

 

You are correct. I should have said that it was the first notification day for delivery. People still holding contracts either be expected to deliver PM to the warehouse by the date you gave, or deposit money for delivery. Anyone with leased silver has a problem now. This is why they wacked the Comex so people could get out of it before it was too late.

On Bernanke, as head of the central bank, that is leasing the PMs to the banksters with the intent to fuel a raid, then his timing was perfect. Why not choose this time when the head of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to speak on how well the economy is doing? If they knock down PMs then it can be claimed that the Federal Reserve's reassuring words has restored "confidence" in the economy. It seems to have fooled more than one person it seems. These attacks are well coordinated for maximum effect.

If one understand's QE, and I've spelled out here before how it actually works, then it wouldn't be hard to see why there was no forthcoming QE at this time. It would cause another surge in oil and the powers that are don't want this right now.

I respect your right to believe what you want no matter what the eyes may say. I present the information here for those who might wish to consider it. As of 12 hours ago, the forum was full of posts about $50 silver again, it can never go down, etc etc etc. I was one of the very few, by starting this topic, that said, not so fast. It took just 8 days for it to happen.

In regards to my personal situation, (why does this forum persist on making things personal), I've never said what my income might be. It's irrelevant to the argument made. I've said before that a logical argument is not based on the characteristics of the individual making it. It should be about the message and not the messenger.

 

thanks keep trying buddy. tough times dont last tough people do.