2012 Silver Crash?

What do you guys think?
I believe a $25 price point this year.
I simply don't see silver holding for much longer. Its being overbought and any sign of market panic this year will follow people liquidating their metal positions.
Not a bad thing for us who hold bullion as its a good time to stockpile.
Personally I'm almost hoping for a correction. These premiums nowadays are ridiculous just due to high demand.

 

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I have no idea but I still don't think the price is that high currently. But I don't care either way as I'll just hold onto my coins

 

Same here. I'm just accumulating and holding everything I currently have.
Would like to be able to buy at cheaper prices though he he

 

$25 is hardly a crash at the current prices. Try $7 or $8 bucks.

 

It's quite likely to hit $25. Or $50. Or both. Or neither.

 

One reason for the high demand is worldwide economic uncertainty. The reasons for that uncertainty are many but they will not be going away any time soon. I wouldn't look for a big drop in silver, but a steady upward trend in price with small corrections along the way.

 

If you really believe this, then sell now and wait for it to drop to $25 and buy even more back.

The problem is that many may share this belief but are afraid to act and just ride the price up and down like a roller coaster. If one got lucky, they might hit several cycles in a year or 2 and their unit cost would be way down.

But then it may not drop below $30 for years, so are you feeling lucky?

Jim
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Hmmmm,
let me get out my lucky silver dollar and flip it. Heads it crashes, tails it soars.
*flips dollar*
Whoops, it landed on its rim.

 

I am predicting the silver bubble is ready to pop and this year silver may well go down to the $6-7 range. This will be wonderful, silver coins will once again be affordable to buy. I remember how silver dimes sold for as little as $0.30 just 6-7 years ago. I remember how a silver quarter cost only $1.50, a silver half cost just $3.00. Well those days are coming back, I can feel it and this is the year it is going to happen.

 

imo there's very slim chances silver would hit $6-7 again anytime soon. That's just too cheap for where the price has been for a while now.

 

I didn't predict a crash. I think it will go down to $25, which isn't a crash by any means.
however I did create the thread for discussion purposes. Get peoples opinions on what they think will happen.
By the way, selling all and buying all is not the correct way to play it.
Treat it like a stock and leverage your position at different price points.
Buy more at low points and less at high points, which could in future be mid points, hence why you should still buy rather than simply wait for low.
I have however sold all twice. Last year at $45 and this year at $35.
I'm simply going to transition to numismatic collecting.

 

I do not see $6-7 silver either, even $15 silver. I see way too much uncertainty and at this point too many people thinking about PM as an investment to "crash". I could see $25 or a little lower possibly, but not a full fledged crash. For it to crash I would have to see a few years of basically better investment options and silver slowly but surely going down. That may be enough to force the sale of some excess positions and drive prices lower.

One thing to note is I believe if silver does drop I believe you will see higher premiums from dealers believing it will recover. This is a bad part about buying physical, you have overcome dealer buy/sell spreads, which can spread at the dealer's discretion.

Btw I am not predicting any major correction. I think around $25 silver is fairly stable supply/demand both from cost of production and from a 100 year price perspective. I simply view silver between $20-35 as normal range right now for the metal, and over $35 maybe a little stretched, but equally below 20 as a buy opportunity. I would love it personally, as I would love to be able to buy more coins that happen to be silver at a lower price.

 

As most of you I would like to buy silver at $25 or less.But wait...what if it stays there for 6 months or more are you still cheering?What the future brings..no one knows.Consider this..the last few years saw record sales of SAEs,canadian maples,and other silver coins.At what point does the supply surpass the demand and then what happens?mass selling of silver will drag the price down and with fewer buyers it will stay down.We want the price to go down so we can stack up with the view that it will go higher and we make a profit right?I bought some silver at $22 but most of it was $30 to $42.So while I keep stacking I also have to keep some other investments going to see me thru if things dont go the way I want.JMHO

 

Good insights medoraman and mikeyg

 

things are very unsettled right now but I don't see how there can't be a recession of some sort because the Eurozone is in trouble and the whole world will contract somewhat with it. I can see silver down to $24-26 this spring but then the govts will step in and print more money to try to prop things up and PMs will be higher in the 2nd half of the year. that's my take on it.

 

If the Euro collapses, IMO, it's bad for silver, not good. This is because the affected Europeans will be doing everything they can to convert their assets to, in this order:

1. USD
2. Swiss Francs
3. Pound Sterling
4. Gold

Silver is nowhere on the radar in that situation. It's easy enough to put $100,000 in currency or gold in a small bag or safe deposit box. That much silver would weigh as much as a washing machine.

IMO the Eurozone politicians and their puppet masters, the central banksters, might manage to print enough money to delay it for a while. Not many things, including war, scares them but unraveling of the fiat ponzi I should imagine, gives them nightmares. The smart ones in Europe have already gotten their money out of there to some degree. It's going to be carnage when the masses start to do the same.

Beyond that mess, I've heard more than once that silver should be around $18 - $20.

 

While silver is much more volatile than gold, their correlation seems pretty solid to me. And I don't think gold's going anywhere but up - in the medium-/long-term.

 

^That is a comparison of SLV & GLD, which are ETFs. They are highly suspected of not having the gold & silver backing claimed and as such are highly susceptible to saying whatever the bankers want them to say. Many gold and silver investors won't put money in these vehicles.

I recommend looking at a plot of the ratio of the gold & silver spot price over time. That will give you the story that you are looking for.

 

FWIW, I compare to gold and the ratio, to keep me focused. Do you also see gold at $1500 and 60:1? Then $25 silver makes sense. That does not, to me. For a few years' average, I can see $1600 and 50:1, which yields $32. I think more likely is $1900 at 50:1 and $38. And invest in more Windex for the crystal ball.

 

I've found that SLV & GLD are good proxies to track spot prices. Kitco's or APMEX's spot charts show the same correlation. They're just not as convenient for comparisons as Yahoo's.

Yes, no doubt there's a lot of controversy about the suspected shortfall in paper vs. physical with these ETF's. Most hedge funds, including Soros, Paulson and Cooperman have been in GLD, so I figure they've done a lot more due diligence than I ever could. Even so, there's a lot more "paper" gold than physical, with Sprott's fund being the only one that's verifiable. However, Sprott usually has a monstrous premium. So I use GLD to "trade." If we reach a point where it looks like TEOTWAWKI is imminent, I'd back off the ETF's. You just don't want to get caught without a chair when the music stops.