When will Silver be Cheap again?

If $50 silver was a bubble, then so was $1900 gold. You can only identify a bubble in hindsight, and it can only be confirmed as a bubble if the $50 target is never taken out. I do agree that the entire futures market has destroyed any sense of true price discovery, but since silver has the highest margin requirements of any commodity on the entire exchange that implies that only strong hands have it.

As for the price surge, it was due to Eric Sprott buying $300 million of physical silver for his PSLV fund.

 

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Yes they will be.
But it'll happen when our monitory base changes from a failed system.

And you shouldn't look at it as it cost $2.xx or whatever price. It's not the metals moving as much as the inflation that moves the price of everything. So when it hit's whatever price you want it will still cost about the same amount of labor to earn an ounce.

 

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2014, at 3:22pm Eastern.

I advise you all to sell before then.

 

I would like that knowledge as well. You could have been a sport and told everyone on this board when you "knew" silver was going to crash down from $48, you know, gave everyone a heads up.

 

I can predict the future as well. Tomorrow, the sun will once again rise in the east. I've never missed that prediction! Just a heads up to all you people expecting it to start rising from the west!

 

I'll top that thank you very much. The sun will set in the West!

 

Your just piggy backing off my prediction, not as special. :yes:

 

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I'm old enough to remember when the "Ford Maverick" came out in the late 1960's--the world's crummiest, most stripped down car even back then. It was $1995. (I don't really know how to translate that into silver prices--silver was maybe $3-4 then?--I just found it humorous to remember that.) LostDutchman does make a thoughtful point tho.

The main thing that bothers me about silver at $30+, or gold at $1600+, is that it's a "crowded trade". Almost Everyone, & their brother, & their mailman, is freaked out after the financial crisis of '08-'09. People who never thought about it when G&S were much lower, now go around talking about "Fiat Currency", & "money printing", & debt, as if those haven't been going on in the US for decades. And using those concepts to rationalize thinking that PM will continue going up forever, & can't ever again crash like in 1980, let alone go into a L-T bear market like from 1980 thru roughly 2000.

I just can't rationalize (for me) buying an investment that's already gone up what? 500% in the last 10 years--and one where most of the public, the press, virtually all you hear anywhere is saying to buy. Just my 2cents.....(& if I really could predict what would happen with PM, I'd be on my yacht off the coast of France by now).....

 

Well nobody bats a thousand, perhaps you're overdue for a whiff.
In keeping with the baseball theme, I subscribe to what my favorite financial adviser said about silver. Yogi Berra, when he said "it's very hard to make predictions, especially about the future".

 

NOS - how many months maximum for $6 silver?

 

Check out the Global money supply for the last 10 years and you will see a frightening exponential increase.

This, is why you will never see silver at $6/oz ever again.

Just my two cents, which at this rate, won't be worth any cents.

One day you may take your home currency to another country to be told, "sorry, we don't recognize your currency as a valid instrument of payment anymore", but, if you whip out a gold bar, they will say, "Ah, I see you have brought cash with you today"

Cheers,

Kurt

 

Yep. It's all very simple. Gold and silver track the money supply.

The US has three choices. They can either drastically cut spending, keep increasing the money supply, or default. And they're not going to cut spending or default.

 

I would make a small technical correction to this. Gold inversely tracks the circulating money supply. (in general) Keep in mind there are only two ways to increase the circulating money supply in the USA. The first is government spending by increasing debt. The second is by increasing private debt by lowering interest rates. It's the folly of fiat currency. It lets governments spend endlessly and it makes banksters rich all while the wealth generated by the productive part of society is stolen away.

Silver? I have no idea. It's a speculator's metal and subject to wild swings.

 

This is where the whole evil bankster idea confuses me. If money is worth nothing what does it matter if the evil banksters steal it all?

 

Funny thing about graphs and exponential growth. When you start at today's value you see this a lot, measuing all kinds of things. You also saw it in 1975 if denominated in 1975 dollars. Just warning everyone to not fall prey to many scare tactics, one of the easiest, longest lived, and sometimes most powerful, is "exponential growth" graphs. All of the scare mongering in the late 70's about global cooling, economy collapsing, etc were all done showing "exponential growth" charts.

 

Silver will never be $6/ oz. again. Like any other commodity, the price over the long term, continually increases. This would be akin to expecting to buy a brand new Lincoln or Cadillac at a dealership for under $8k (unless it was totalled during transit). It's a nice dream if you don't own any silver (or gold) and want to purchase it but let's be realistic. Even in a post apocalliptic world, ten ounces of silver might buy you a gallon of gasoline. It's all relative to supply and demand.

 

Doubt it, why would you want a metal in such an environment? We have said it before, but PM is a hedge for today, and a hedge for your country's economy collapsing.

For any kind of Mad Max scenario, I have 160 acres of farmland in Iowa, and a fairly large armory of guns. That is what will be handy then. I am not preparing for such a thing, just thinking of the assets I own that would be handy in such a scenario. My PM and coins will be useless.

 

This reminded me of the book "Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception". It's a good read, I recommend it.

 

Thanks, I will check it out. I also recommend Paulos' "A Mathemetician Reads the Newspaper".

Edit: His work Innumeracy, and Beyond Innumeracy are also great works. I liked the "..Newspaper" since it goes through many daily dealing with mathematics and shows the media and societies extreme lack of mathematics in day to day life.

 

Great recommendations, rodeoclown and medoraman! I'm going to pick those up this weekend.




I watched a couple of the videos on youtube on "Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception". Fascinating!