25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set PRICE WATCH

SteveF is my hero!!! Awesome work, dude! I vote you MVP of the price watch thread!

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

My total cost, including grading, is $2,071.55 or $414.55 per set. One set was promised to friend at cost ($414.55) I'll keep two sets which leaves two sets.
Sent to NGC via registered mail on 11/28.

Your charts are informative and interesting.

 

Thanks StevenF, your charts are Grrrrr8! But, i'm holding my sealed box of 5 sets until the 30th anniversary. I hope the ASE program lives forever and I hope you continue updating your work until then.

 

A graded / slabbed NGC 69 set just sold for $676 within the price range of the OGP's

 

Open set just went at $613. $500's is the next step. If they continue at this rate of decline, could we see $400's?

 

Oh dear. And here I was hoping to take two sets to FUN and make some money. Well, we'll still hazard a go at it......

 

Steve, I like most of the charts you have been posting, but the latest charts with trying to show the different profit per set you may expect in grading vs. not-grading and charts of profit based on how many 70 sets you may get could be a little misleading.

You mentioned that for PCGS grading you included the huge fees for First Strike labels (an extra $90/set). Of course, that is an optional add-on that isn't required and so far doesn't seem to add much, if any, to the final selling price of a PCGS set. So you could get your box of 5 sets graded at PCGS for about $388 (non-FS) vs. the approximate $838 (w/ FS) which would make a signficant difference in your charts.

Also, when looking at the number of 70 sets you get back, that would only work if you get them graded back all in matching sets. Of course, if you get some mixed sets, then it really matters which coins you get the 70s and which are the 69s. If you get all 70s on all of the common coins and 69s on the keys, you won't do nearly as well if you get mostly 69s, but score a few 70s on the key coins. For example, in my PCGS submission I got no 70 sets... but I did score 4/5 of the reverse proofs in 70 and will therefore make a signficant profit in selling the coins.

In any event, I appreciate the work and you posting the charts. In particular, thanks for the chart that shows the premium that a PCGS 70 set commands over an NGC 70 set. I predicted that the premium will increase significantly over time and now I'll be able to easily see if that ends up being the case.

 

I just saw an open set sell for $625 and only two bids. He wouldn't take PayPal, only a personal check or money order. Since when has Ebay allowed that? There is another set at $675 or best offer (open set) due in about 45 minutes. I gave him an offer just under $600 that is under consideration. So we will see. If it's an under bid that isn't acceptable, your usually notified immeadiately of the decline. He is still thinking. Update: He just offered $650; I countered at $600 even. That's close to what I will spend. 10 minutes have gone by and he said he has a previous offer at that price already. He said he would consider mine as a second chance offer if I stand pat. I think I will do just that. I feel $600 will be a do-able number very soon. I spend a lot of time in LasVegas, so I do like to gamble.

 

Looks like on average, we’re seeing about 10 eBay sales of 2011 ASE Anniversary sets (in all forms) per hour…doing the math:

33 days since 9 November (the day sets began to be delivered from the mint) x 24 hours per day = 792 hours x 10 sets per hour = 7,920 sets sold on eBay to date. Rounding that figure to 10,000, to account for all other sales venues means that we’ve only seen about 10% of the total inventory flip so far.

There must be a lot of 1) inventory queued at the TPG's for grading, 2) speculators holding their stock for future selling, 3) collectors stashing away their goodies. In any event, we've got a long way to go to sort out this secondary market.

 

illini, I agree with you that the first strike labels should have no effect on the coins sales price, especially in the 25th sets case when all sets were stacked and ready to ship before they even went on sale. But what I'm trying to do with my charts is to show whether these kind of assumptions are true or not, by looking at the data.

For every PCGS 70 set that has sold on ebay, I have also recorded what labeling option was used. So far there have been three options I have seen: Mercanti signature First Strike, 25th Anniversary First Strike, and Traditional First Strike(Flag). All sales I have seen are thus first strike, and this is why I included the first strike fee in my costs.

When I start seeing non first strike labels in sufficient quantities, I can create a similar chart for those sales.

It is interesting to note, that even though there should be no difference in prices between the three label options I have observed, the Flag labels do seem to sell for significantly more than the others. Although the number of sales of these labels are still very low compared to the other two options, so I wouldn't say that this difference will hold up over time as these labels become more common.

I will concede that the charts are difficult to understand. First I wasn't trying to show total profit on the graded sets, I was trying to show the profit above and beyond just selling the sets raw in a sealed box, ie. did grading the sets make you more money or less than the raw sealed sets would of.

As for the "gradient lines" nobody's grades will perfectly fall on a line, it requires you to kind of fit what you got onto the chart. That's not a precise thing to do, where on the chart are you if you have 20 out 25 coins as 70, but no complete sets of 70, as you state it depends on which of the coins you're missing. But I was hoping that it could give people a sense for what their profit would be if they commited to spend the money on the grading.


Thanks for your kind words, and your reasoned debate.
Steve

 

I would guess that half of those auctions have been for 5 sets, so it could be closer to 30,000 sets sold. Of course the wildcard is how many were bought to be re-sold, so we could only be at 5% of the total inventory. Who knows. I suspect that some people will hold them rather than sell at these low prices. I think they will rebound when the auctions dry up, although that could take a while. If you want a set, the time to buy will be in the next month as people get desperate to sell before Christmas. The bottom is near, although it may last for a while.

 

Good phrase for the ages.

 

I always predicted the price would level out at $500, but I didn't forsee it happening before Christmas and I really don't care. I'm not selling until the 30th anniversary. In the meantime, I just found a 46.6 quart "Iris" brand name watertight/ airtight storage box that I plan to store my OGP 5 sets with a 40 gram desiccant.

 

The eBay search term I've been using is "2011 silver eagle set". About 1 is 20 of these search results are for multiple set auctions.

 

"anniversary eagle set" brings 150 more listings.

 

That search term is better than mine...thanks - but still only yields about 1 in 20 (or less) multi-set auctions.

 

2011eagle set should be a better search term

 

i use 25th eagle to search.

 

That may be true currently, but look back about 2-3 weeks, before all the graders got theirs back and it might be different. I'm just saying that all this is speculation at this point. We don't know how many were sold or how many of those sold were re-sold.

 

Just a huge mount of these were dumped on the secondary market all at once- once the market absorbs these will all of the collectors have theirs? will demand be quenched?