25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set PRICE WATCH

Open up a new thread for Panda. this is ASE

 

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Updated chart showing number of sets sold over time:

 

New chart showing all the ungraded sets on a single chart.
I determined the average sale price each day for each option.

I don't plan on posting the individual charts showing the interday movement anymore unless there are requests for these charts. I'm still collecting the data inorder to create the composite charts.

 

New chart for the graded sets:

 

Chart showing what percent above the NGC 70 set price that the PCGS 70 set is selling for.

 

Steven - I absolutely LOVE THOSE CHARTS!!!!!!! Thanks for taking the time.

 

Steven,

I know you have heard this before, but thanks so much for your outstanding work on these charts.

 

Those charts seem like a lot of time and hard work goes into them.
I appreciate them.
Thanks, Steve!

 

I wish there was a way to pay Steve back for this. The simplicity and professionalism of these graphs are noteworthy. You should be working for some type of data research firm.

 

The way I'm talking about Pandas is 100% relevent to this thread. Being that I told you guys what would happen to the ATB pucks and what I'm calling for the ASE 25th anv set is starting to play out like I've said you might want to take notes.

 

This is the first NGC-70 set I've seen that has a Buy It Now price below $1,100: eBay auction. Jump on it or wait for a better price?

 

Wait.

One already closed this AM at $1080. Prices still heading south. Where are those people who said wait until the Xmas buying season, these will go to the moon?

 

Do you think that's the only one that will go below $1100?
So far, a vast majority of folks who bought a set on the secondary market are underwater on their purchase. Some deeply so.
Wait until the prices bottom, then get one on the way up.

 

I've gone back as far as ebay allowed and gathered the data for the graded 69 sets.

Here's the graph for the number of graded sets sold:

 

And for the prices on the graded sets:

 

From there I was curious, how much profit would you be getting on these sales, if you took out the ebay, paypal, grading(first strike for pcgs), and shipping fees. For shipping I assumed usps express, with signature and insurance for each shipment.
I also added a line for the profit per set on a sealed box of 5 sets.
This all assumes you bought the sets from the mint for retail.

 

And then I decided to create a chart showing how much profit(or loss) you would be getting if you graded the set versus just selling the sealed set:

 

Some people bought sets for $4,000.00. Wow!

I sat on my five sets 'til sending them to NGC for grading on 11/28. With the prices decreasing at this pace as an investment I don't know if the grading expense is going to pay off.

 

So that got me wondering, how many 70 sets would you need to avoid losing money overall from grading the sets.
So for NGC:
Use this kind of like a growth chart to see were your sets fall on the spectrum. ie if you have 2 70 sets 1 69 set and the rest is 70's and 69's but no complete sets, you would be between the yellow and the light blue line.

 

And likewise for the PCGS sets:
The one thing I haven't added to these charts would be a delay between when you could of sold your sealed box of 5, and when you got your results from grading, and sold your graded sets. In the current falling price enviroment, this could have significant impact on if you come out ahead from grading.
Any one have a feel for how long of a delay this is? I can add this in next time I post if people think it would be useful.